How to stop worrying and embrace Javier Baez

It’s probably safe to say that hardcore Mets fans were conflicted when the Mets traded a top prospect for Javier Baez and a depth starter. Most of us wanted to see a deal of some type. But if we were going to deal one of the main prospects, if we had a dose of truth serum, we’d probably admit to hoping for something better than the Dave Kingman of middle infielders.

But here it is five weeks later and the trade has been pretty close to what the front office likely envisioned. No, not the IL stint or the thumbs down fiasco – the actual production received by the two players when active. Baez has an .860 OPS in 95 PA as a Met, while Trevor Williams has a 1.50 ERA in five appearances, including three starts.

While Baez was on the IL, the Mets went 2-8. Of course, that was when the Mets were playing the Dodgers and Giants. But it’s certainly among the possibilities that having Baez in the lineup might have made the difference in one or more of those five one-run games they played in that 2-8 stretch. Jeff McNeil played 2B while Baez was out and he hit just .114 with a .329 OPS in those games. And it was McNeil’s disappointing production that was a contributing reason to trade for Baez in the first place.

We’ve all watched McNeil have success with the Mets. And no one likes the undisciplined hacks that Baez frequently takes when at the plate. But this is a bottom-line, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately business, especially while making an uphill climb for the playoffs.

Ever since he had that great stretch at the close of the 2019 season, when he had 22 XBH in 167 PA, we’ve been left wanting that type of production from McNeil again and he simply hasn’t produced it. Nor has he had the ultra-high BABIP marks that he did when he first came up. Too often when McNeil pulls the ball these days, it’s a weak groundout. And the slaps to the opposite field aren’t coming up hits, either.

McNeil has had some better ABs here recently and as fans we want him to get the chance to be a threat in the lineup. But just because we want it, doesn’t mean that he’s going to deliver. And better ABs is certainly a relative term. In his last 10 games, McNeil is batting .286 with no power. Now, it’s better than the .114 he hit while Baez was on the IL but it’s not anything to get excited about.

Baez has been a 110-point upgrade from what McNeil was producing at the time of the trade. And McNeil has lost 80 points of OPS from where he was when the Mets made the deal at the end of July. If we look at the choice objectively, it’s hard to imagine anyone saying that McNeil is the better choice to play right now.

But that doesn’t mean that Baez is forgiven, much less embraced, since thumb gate happened. Sure, sure – the fans will clap when he homers or drives the ball for hits to the opposite field. It just seems like everyone is expecting the other shoe to drop, for Baez to go back to terrible swings and misses at pitches a foot out of the strike zone on a consistent basis. Not many will pick Baez to be their favorite player.

Yet terrible swings are always going to be part of the Baez package.

Can the coaches, or his buddy Francisco Lindor, or Baez himself, rein in his hacktastic tendencies and get Baez to regularly swing at more pitches in the zone? Or does that not even matter?

Turns out that Baez’ production seemingly has little to do with swinging at a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone. Instead, he just needs to make better contact with pitches he swings at. Now, that sounds counter-intuitive. For most players, you make better contact by swinging at more strikes and fewer balls. But it just doesn’t work that way with Baez.

The best years for Baez as a hitter were in 2018 and 2019. He had a 131 and a 114 wRC+ in those two seasons, respectively. Last year he had a 57 wRC+ and this year he had a 104 mark with the Cubs before the trade. In his big year in 2018, Baez swung at pitches outside the zone 45.5% of the time. In his dismal 2020 season, he swung at balls 40.6% of the time.

It could be that in 2018, the balls that Baez swung at were pitches just off the plate while this year with the Cubs and last season they were significantly further away. It’s impossible to tell without going back and looking at the actual ABs.

What we do know is that in his time with the Mets, Baez has swung at a whopping 50.2% of pitches outside the strike zone. And despite that shockingly high number of swings at balls, Baez has a 133 wRC+ – or even better than what he did in 2018 when he finished second in the MVP race. A small sample size to evaluate? Absolutely. But we can only use what we have, not what we’d like to have.

Can Baez keep up his strong production while swinging at this many bad pitches? His output in 2018 certainly shows it as a possibility. It’s undoubtedly unconventional and it’s hard to disagree with people who strongly dislike his approach.

But to me, it comes down to this: Does it work? One of my pet peeves is hitters who look at strikes and swing at balls. But if swinging at balls results in an .860 OPS and a 133 wRC+ for an individual hitter — sign me up. It seems better to focus on what Baez actually does, rather than what he might do even better if he had a different approach.

My preference is for a player who looks for his pitch to hit, drives it when he gets it and doesn’t swing at bad offerings. It’s why Brandon Nimmo is one of my favorites. Or at least Nimmo who hit for power like he did in 2018-20, not this season. That makes Baez someone that doesn’t immediately appeal to me. But you know what I find appealing – guys who hit. And Baez has done that in his brief Mets’ career.

Just like we have to learn to live with Nimmo getting called out on strikes because he won’t swing at a pitch he thinks is outside of the zone on a two-strike count, we’ll have to learn to live with Baez swinging at some god-awful pitches. For me, at least, it will take some getting used to.

But an .860 OPS covers up a lot of flaws.