The Saturday night subway series game, with the very moving 9/11 remembrance ceremony, drew an SRO crowd of 43,144. Other than these recent contests with the Yanks, it seems like there are more empty seats than usual at Citi Field. We’ll take a look statistically at this and posit some possible reasons for any attendance drop.
The methodology is a little trickier than it might be in normal seasons. Obviously we can’t directly compare attendance to last year since there were huge seating restrictions then. Similarly, we can’t directly compare season-wide to 2019, because there were some seating restrictions this year for the first few months. Those restrictions were lifted in late June, so we are going to run some comparisons concerning July of this year with July of 2019.
On the surface, conditions might seem to favor higher attendance this year, for several reasons. The 2021 Mets were in first place in the division for the whole month of July in 2021, whereas the 2019 team was below .500 all of July, and was not really in contention. In addition, it might be expected there would be pent-up demand for seats since the restriction had just ended after the shortened 2020 season and the first months of 2021. However that proved not to be the case as July 2019 had far better attendance than July of this season.
For the 11 home games in July of 2019, every single home date was above 30,000 paid fans in attendance. Two games actually were above the 41,922 capacity of Citi Field, they were the subway series games of that year. The smallest crowd of the entire month was 31,350 on Saturday, July 6, against Philadelphia. For the 15 home dates in July 2021, that crowd would have been the third largest of the month. Only on Saturday July 10 against the Pirates with 31,924 fans in the seats, and Friday, July 30 against the Reds (31,787) were the crowds higher than that lowest figure for 2019, and only two dates in July 2021 exceeded 30,000 fans.
Figures cited are from the Baseball Reference website. By pulling out my trusty calculator, it shows an average per game attendance of 35,772 in July 2019, whereas in July 2021 that mark was 24,506 per game, a significant drop-off.
What could have caused this big drop? Most likely it was a combination of factors, as it usually is. Certainly the weather played a part. July 2021 was one of the wetter Julys ever in New York, with 10.13 inches, in contrast July 2019 had a precipitation total of 6.85 inches. So rain undoubtedly held down the crowds on some of the days.
Covid 19 probably played a role as well. Even though vaccinations had been available for months, there was probably some small percentage of fans who did not venture out as much. Visitors to New York City were down as well due to reluctance to travel, and some of those people were Mets fans.
We know there has been an accelerated out migration from New York over the past couple of years for a variety of reasons including the virus, but also the high taxes in New York and the surge in violent crime. The Wall Street Journal stated that as of July, the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles reported some 33,500 New Yorkers had moved to Florida over the previous 10 months. Smaller amounts pulled up stakes for other states, but the bottom line was that at least some of these folks were Mets fans and that had to mean some loss of admissions to Citi Field.
Finally we can probably blame a general decline of interest in baseball in this three true outcomes era. TV ratings nationally have been trending downward for years. Average attendance per home game for the Mets has dropped every year since 2015. Ominously in 2000 the age of the average baseball fan was 52. Today the average age is 57, definitely a negative trend.
In 2019, when the Mets were drawing fans comparatively well, the team made seven million dollars in profit, not very impressive for a multi-billion dollar enterprise. It is almost certain they will lose money this year. If I were Steve Cohen, I would be concerned, and not just over the play in the field that the Mets have displayed this season.
I can give my personal reaction to this question. Friday night’s game against the Yankees was the most enjoyable game of the season for me to watch, with the Mets hitting the ball, scoring runs, and Tylor Megill effectively throwing strikes, and the Mets cruising to a win over the hated Yankees. Many other games often try my patience, especially when pitchers have trouble with command and hitters take a stroll after each pitch.
Really Jeff McNeil, do you really need to walk up the first base line on every pitch? Really Dom Smith, do you have to ponder the universe while taking your at bat? Really James McCann, does your blasted routine have to include leaving the box on every pitch? All three of these guys could benefit from staying in there and being ready without the drumroll. And JD would be in there too, just too deliberate… but at least he’s hitting .295.
Baseball appears doomed. The game is slow and largely boring to watch (except maybe for us diehards). Nine innings is an eternity to the short-attention-spanned. Even I, who grew up living for baseball, raising three baseball sons, and having coached extensively, feels challenged to get through a game on many nights…
The Mets blow it every Saturday when they refuse to play a day game. What dad looks forward to dragging his kids to the park after dinner? Play the game in sunshine whenever possible so that youngsters can appreciate the game and become fans. Football is no better… the NFL also is close to unwatchable… far far too any ads. Soccer has the brightest future because play is non-stop…
Winning could help, but good luck to Steve Cohen to cross that minefield. He has to rebuild the franchise from the bottom up. If it were me, I’d get nine of the fastest runners, play small ball and drive opposing pitchers crazy with speed, and give the fans something to watch. Get pitchers who work fast with a strong defense… raise the attendance to a peak, then sell… it’s the American way.
Im fully vaccinated and you couldn’t pay me to go to a game in person. And, well, the collapse is pretty dramatic. Worth 100s of $ to see this? generally no.
For me personally, it’s about the commute. I grew up on LI and then lived in Manhattan. Very easy to get to Flushing from either place. I’ve settled in NJ where it’s a nightmare. For NJ Mets fans the options are A) drive and fight horrific traffic, pay ridiculous tolls, and then struggle to find parking and likely get charged $20 or $30 to park under a bridge or in an abandoned lot a few blocks from the stadium. (they botched the parking logistics when they built Citi.) or B) Try to carefully coordinate multiple trains (either NJTransit train or bus (which are sporadically scheduled at night and on weekends) to Penn Station to connect with LIRR or 7 subway. I used to go to 10 games per year. Now I go to 2. Front office could rope in a lot more ticket sales if they’d figure out something better for fans who don’t live in the city or on LI. Maybe some sort of package deal with a charter bus or ferry? Much easier to get to a Yankees or even Phillies game from NJ. Ack!
As far as MLB capturing the attention of younger fans, I’ve been saying for years that having more day games is the answer – especially during the playoffs, but TV ad revenue is the big driver.