On April 23, Jacob deGrom threw 109 pitches in a game. Little did we know at the time that was going to be significant. No, we’re not talking about how he got hurt in that outing and never pitched the same again. Rather, in the 100-plus games from that point, only one pitcher on the Mets threw more pitches than that in a game. So far, Marcus Stroman holds the 2021 team record with 114 pitches on August 17.
The Mets have only had six games this year where a pitcher threw 100 pitches in a game. In addition to the two mentioned above, Taijuan Walker has reached triple digits four times. That’s it. This has to be an organizational philosophy but who has the loudest voice in driving this policy? No doubt some will lay the blame with Sandy Alderson because they think he is the one responsible for everything bad with the team. Alderson certainly could be the one but it seems far from a slam dunk for me. In Alderson’s last season with the Mets, 2018, the team had 63 games where a pitcher threw at least 100 pitches.
It seems to me that this policy was more likely created by Zack Scott or Jeremy Hefner.
When Steve Cohen took over, he said his goal was to make the Mets the East Coast Dodgers. That’s proven to be easier said than done. But one way the Mets could emulate the team that left Brooklyn is by letting their starters go deeper in games. While the Mets have had only six games with 100 pitches by a starter, the Dodgers have five times that many.
ENDING ON AN UP NOTE – In his last 15 games – counting the suspended game that was played on 8/31, even if it officially counts as an April game – Brandon Nimmo has a .411/.500/.643 line in 66 PA. While the hits are falling in for Nimmo here, the important thing is the return of his power stroke. A .232 ISO is double what he had when the streak started on August 21. We all rightfully marvel over Nimmo’s OBP. But what truly makes him special is his ability to hit for power in addition to the walks. That’s been absent for most of the year. Perhaps he’s finally over the finger injury that caused him to miss two months of the season.
THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM – If before the season started, you were told that Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith would be within two points of one another in OPS and that James McCann would be just 14 points behind Smith, you’d likely be elated. Instead, we have McNeil with a .669 mark, Smith at .667 and McCann at .653 for the season. For most of the year, Michael Conforto has been in this grouping but Conforto has been hitting the ball better here lately – last night excluded – and his OPS sits at .712, hardly a great number but better than his mates. McNeil and Smith have taken most of the outrage from fans. But imagine how great the venom would be directed at McCann if McNeil and Smith were duplicating what they did previously.
The Mets thought they were getting the McCann that the White Sox had, the guy who posted an .808 OPS. Instead, they got the McCann who played for the Tigers at the beginning of his career. In his first 1,658 PA with Detroit, McCann posted a .653 OPS, identical to the mark he’s put up in 2021. That’s still better than Patrick Mazeika’s .538 OPS but it’s not anything that’s going to endear him to the home fans the next three years.
KNOCKED FOR A LOUP – Since integration in 1947, there have been 90 seasons in MLB history where a pitcher has posted an ERA of 1.50 or lower with at least 50 IP. Aaron Loup is one of those guys, as he has a 1.03 ERA in 52.2 IP. Among our 90 pitchers, that’s tied for the 14th-best ERA. Prior to this season, the Mets had only two pitchers make this list. In 1975, Bob Apodaca had a 1.49 ERA in 84.2 IP and in 1983, Jesse Orosco had a 1.47 ERA in 110 IP, which drew him some CY and MVP votes. Of course, Loup isn’t the only 2021 Met to meet these qualifications. deGrom has a 1.08 ERA in 92 IP this year. Sigh.
YEP, IT’S THAT TIME AGAIN – This is dangerously close to “beating a dead horse” territory but it seems necessary to note this for posterity. The Mets have been lousy with RISP. Here are their ranks in the NL in various categories in this split:
PA – 1,319 (14th) – only the Cubs are worse
Runs – 385 (last)
Hits – 263 (14th) – only the Pirates are worse
XBH – 77 (14th) – Only the Pirates are worse
OPS – .698 (14th) – Only the Pirates are worse
SF – 22 (last) – They can’t even make “good” outs
BABIP – .294 (8th) – League average is .293
The one that surprised me at first is how they ranked 14th in PA with RISP. It seems like night after night the Mets go 2-9 or 1-13 with RISP. It’s not lack of chances. My expectation is that they would have been higher in PA. But it makes sense they are where they are. An average team would get more PA in those games than the Mets because, you know, they would actually get a few hits in those situations and thus more chances.
It’s sort of mind boggling how the Mets are league average in BABIP and yet next to last in production. And the reason is that they don’t hit for any power. It’s a season-long problem in all situations, as the Mets rank just 12th in the league with a .391 SLG. It’s just magnified in key situations.
One year it would be fun to see the Mets duplicate a team like the Nationals (108 XBH) or Braves (110 XBH) with RISP. Things would be a lot different if the Mets had 30-plus more XBH on their ledger in these great RBI situations.
So, there’s no good news these days, except for Aaron Loup.
Mets need to rebuild their offense this off-season. Pitching has a decent foundation. Starters: deGrom, Carrasco, Walker, Stroman or Syndergaard, Megill or Peterson. Maybe they pick up one more quality guy.
Relievers: Loup, Lugo, Castro, Diaz, Diaz. Need LHers.
But the lineup needs a total overhaul.
Nimmo and Lindor have to be there, for different reasons.
Alonso is probably untouchable, though to me it’s debatable.
McCann needs to hit better next year.
Smith and McNeil… sheeesh.
JD needs to play or go away.
Conforto will either be here or not.
Bring back the Bench Mob!
Bye Bye Luis Rojas…
Agree with most of this, Wobbit.
I’d sign Stroman and bring back Thor with a QO. Lucchesi and Yamamoto could be keepers. Bullpen is solid mostly, if they sign Loup and bring in another lefty not named Hand. There’s also Drew Smith, Reid-Foley and May there.
Sign Bryant to play 3B until Vientos and/or Baty is ready, then move him to the OF (instead of Conforto). Also consider signing Castellanos. Lee might also be ready soon. I’m OK leaving Nimmo in CF and extending him.
Who do you have playing 2B? Cano might still be here (with $40 million left on his contract for us). Is there a DH for him, Davis, etc.? McNeil now is a bench guy until (if) he produces again. Dom Smith needs to be traded, but not given away. So that leaves the possibility of signing Baez and putting him at 2B.
Thoughts?
Pitch count should never be a reason to remove a pitcher. Performance, fatigue and game situation should be the criteria. The GM and manager and staff should be replaced.
Nimmo had a year very good and also improved defensively but he can’t stay on the field. Because of the one year of control more the Mets should look at good trade options.
Loup had a exceptional year and they should sign for next year. Diaz, May,Castro and Familia pitch more innings than Loup. Just saying.
McCann had a bad offense year and I never expected a .808 OPS (my projection was .717). Rojas run him into the ground at the beginning of the year. On a positive note , the running game is controlled.
The RISP problem (and the second half play) has made me conclude that this team needs a make over. The present personnel can’t perform under pressure.
I don’t know many people who expected McCann to keep hitting in the 800’s, but I thought the mid-to-low 700’s was possible. His year has been a disappointment, but I do like his defense. Mets have not always had good defensive catchers and I think a good defensive catcher is still undervalued.
As for next year, the Mets already have $90M locked up in three guys (deGrom, Lindor and Cano). Add in other contracts and arbitration-eligible players, you’re probably around $175M. If you sign two of Stroman/Baez/Thor/Conforto that’s all you can afford under the salary cap. So the Mets have to make some good player choices AND they have to count on a couple of disappointing players (either injury or performance) bouncing back next year.
That’s it. that’s the plan.
Studies, I agree and was coming to echo that. When we hear “McCannon throws out ————,” we all love it. But the $10MM he’s getting is 5% of the payroll and I believe he’s doing at least that. The other 95% needs to be examined. Let’s see how another year goes for McCann but his work with the staff and his controlling of the running game that the Mets were horrible in for years, make him well worth it to me. He’s batting 8th. He’s not part of the problem.
Studes – thanks for mentioning payroll. No personnel discussions should proceed without considering the reality of financing. As you rightly point out, between existing commitments and arb salaries, there will be little room to move. So if you look at your list of Stroman Baez conforto syndergaard and realize that’s essentially treading water as all four will not be signed. So the entirety of next year essentially hinges on players that underperformed this year suddenly getting better.
The main off season personnel change needs to be in the FO where a complete rebuild is needed desperately.
Why is it that we believe pitchers must come out so soon. When they were comparing Jake to Bob Gibson they failed to mention Gibson’s 255 complete games including 7 seasons of more more than 20, hitting 28 CGs in two of those years OMG! It has to be a reflection on training because many great pitchers of the last generation often completed games or came much closer than a 6 inning “quality” start.
You have to love everything about Brandon Nimmo but his ability to stay on The field. He has improved so much in CF and his is an offensive spark plug that if he could show up for 130 games a year we’d be in good shape with him hitzting lead off. As far as McCann, his bats been a bummer but not many successfully steal against him and let’s give him some credit for how he catches our pitchers. I see improved hitting in year two of his contract and perhaps a stronger hitter than Nido to back him up.
Year two of the Cohen remake will have lots of changes and a decision on what to do with returning headache, old man Cano. Excited for the off-season.
Due to the evolution of the game, comparing complete games of pitchers from different eras is not particularly fair or reasonable. The game is in many ways the same, but pitching is very different now from the starter perspective. The main driver to me, anecdotally, is essentially the evolution of the hitter. The current MLB hitter is superior to prior generations in that their size, power, and bat speed is superior. Not that the players are better, but their physical tools are improved through nutrition, training, medicine, etc. Pitching has advanced as well and throwing 95+ is the rule as opposed to the exception. Sprinkle in the change in hitting philosophy that have hitters strategically taking more pitches, fouling off more balls, and taking power swings behind in the count, and those factors have driven pitchers to push for maximum velocity and maximum effort on virtually every pitch. Many run-of-the-mill pitchers now throw sliders faster than prior Hall of Famers threw fast balls. So, fatigue and injury are a more frequent byproduct, or at least that is what the perception is. Throw in analytics as Chris F said, “3rd time through” order, along with the major financial investment the teams have in the top pitchers, and we get the results that we see and that frustrate most of us. And that’s my unprofessional take.
We all love deGrom with his velocity, his strikeouts, and his dominance. In actuality, he would likely serve the team much better putting up numbers like Stroman, and specifically the starts and innings pitched. Hopefully, the Mets and deGrom will find a way forward that will maximize his value, even if it diminishes the “shine”. GKR can find something else to fawn over.
In the past 100 pitches may have been the limit just as a way to protect the arm. The numbers are dropping because this is linked to throw time through, when ops+ against climbs, so that will be regardless of pitch count. These is all kinds of problems with that because if pitch efficiency is low – say 7-10 PPO – 100 pitches will come after 5 innings. Of course this leads to extended pen use. If you just go on times through the line up then maybe less than 100 pitches. In hyper analytics, the game does not see who well a pitcher is in any particular outing. The third time through is the limit regardless of pitches. And the 1 IP for relieves is fixed too. It blows.
I’d like to ignore pitch count, just go on performance, when a pitcher is losing command, advice from his catcher, etc (old school). One more inning per game from the starter makes a world of difference to the team. Let starting pitchers get their chance in the rotation.
As a life-long Mets fan, I’d like a complete change with the new owner. New front office, new manager on the field, lots of new players. Nothing would be as bad as sticking with what got you to under .500.
I want New Blood… want to excited come spring.
I agree with you 100%
IMRO, for the years I’ve been reading at this here blog, the drop from pre-season optimism to end of season pessimism/cynicism has been, by far, the most precipitous. Agree/disagree with thoughts/explanations. Pre-thanks in advance. (The R stands for “rancid”.)
Tht my be true, but from my view as the mayor of panic city, it pretty much seems like every year.
Dream = 90+ wins
Reality = 80 wins
I’ve seen a few articles recently talking about what a disappointment McCann is. I disagree. 1) His defense is light years beyond what we were getting out of Ramos. 2) It’s not like he’s making $30mm 3) There is a dearth of quality catching in MLB right now. He’s far from our biggest problem. The fact that our #8 hitter’s OPS is 100 points below where it should be is nothing compared to the fact that middle of the order hitters Lindor, Conforto, McNeill, and Smith are all 200 below where they should be.