We’ll remember the 2021 Mets as the team that couldn’t hit and couldn’t stay healthy. But we should also recall this squad as the Mets’ best defensive team in a generation. And we should also note that despite heavy usage, the bullpen has been pretty good, too.
Some people when they think of a bullpen only consider the closer and perhaps a setup man or two. But anyone who watched the 2019 Mets knows you need more than two good relievers. Of course, the question becomes how do you define good? Because they throw fewer innings than starters, we can’t judge relievers quite as easily.
My preference has always been to look at multiple numbers – ERA, WHIP and OPS allowed. Let’s also throw in IP and FIP. But before we get to the numbers, let’s point out that the bullpen has featured five relievers who’ve posted ERA+ numbers between 103 and 115, along with one guy with a 167 mark who’s on the IL and Aaron Loup, who checks in with an insane 399 yet is rarely used in the eighth, much less the ninth inning of games. But if we take out Loup and Drew Smith – the injured reliever – can you tell the other five from their stats?
| Player | IP | ERA | FIP | WHIP | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 64.2 | 3.48 | 4.41 | 1.345 | .646 |
| Player B | 59.2 | 3.62 | 2.64 | 1.106 | .603 |
| Player C | 56 | 3.86 | 4.55 | 1.429 | .772 |
| Player D | 43.2 | 3.50 | 3.98 | 1.328 | .720 |
| Player E | 58.2 | 3.68 | 3.67 | 1.261 | .691 |
We see Player C is the one with the highest WHIP, so it’s a pretty safe guess that’s Jeurys Familia. He also has the highest FIP and the highest OPS allowed. He probably has the worst WPA, too. Shoot, why don’t we check that as well. Familia has a (-0.62) WPA, the only one of our five relievers in negative numbers. He ranks 37th among the 41 pitchers the Mets have used this season in WPA. The ERA is good but everything else is rotten. It’s a strong indicator that you can’t use ERA alone to judge relievers.
Player D has the fewest innings, which means this is Seth Lugo, who missed the first two months of the season. This year hasn’t been up to his 2018-19 standards, as he’s allowed more walks and more hard contact. It would be nice if we could say that hands down the first choice to pitch the eighth inning is Lugo. But that’s simply not the case. Maybe next year when he’s further out from the non-TJ elbow surgery.
Now it gets a little trickier. Player A has the second-highest WHIP, so we’ll say that’s Miguel Castro. It’s a little bit of a mixed bag here. The ERA is really good, as is the OPS allowed. But that WHIP and FIP leave something to be desired. My feeling is that Castro has been pretty good this year – would much rather see him in the game than Familia. But it’s hard to feel good about him going forward with that FIP.
The hope is that the reliever with the best FIP, WHIP and OPS would be your closer and this is, indeed, Edwin Diaz as Player B. It’s difficult for fans to objectively rank Diaz. They gave up so much to get him – have you noticed that Jarred Kelenic has an .848 OPS in his last 100 PA? – and he’s been so rotten on the road this year (7.48 ERA, .871 OPS, 1.662 WHIP) that it’s tough to have a lot of faith in him. Maybe they can use Loup as the closer in road games the rest of the way.
That leaves Trevor May as Player E. He hasn’t been as good as we hoped but he’s been adequate. It just seems like a struggle each time he’s on the mound. But that’s more of the case where a few high-pitch counts have clouded the issue. In his 54 appearances of one full inning, May has six games with 25 or more pitches and 19 outings where he threw 15 or fewer pitches. Hopefully next year he has more appearances in the seventh inning than the eighth.
*****
Back on April 8, an article talked about the need to have four or more reliable relievers to have success. The standards for reliable were at least 30 IP and at least a 100 ERA+. The 2021 Mets currently have seven relievers that meet these requirements. This year, the Mets had the type of bullpen that good teams have. They just didn’t have the hitting to go along with it.
No doubt about it, the bullpen was a pleasant surprise tis season and might be the main reason the Mets spent so much time in first place. It is one reason we have to give credit to Jeremy Hefner. Every guy, even the starters, were very effective in the first half. Even Familia had a stretch where he got the job done, even sometimes without incident.
The second half bullpen falter was because of overuse, and for this we have to point at Rojas. Luis thinks that going to the bullpen is a given, and he goes there way too early in most games.
When in doubt, Luis goes to the pen. And there’s a lot of doubt with this guy.
“have you noticed that Jarred Kelenic has an .848 OPS in his last 100 PA?”
No, I didn’t. But his current overall stats don’t look very good:
G: 81
AB: 296
BB: 30
SO: 95
BA: .176
SLG: .345
OBP+: 67
bWAR: -2.0
Brian,
Nice article. Yes, the pen has performed overall better than the eye test. I think this is due to the combination of massive innings pitched due to starters, too many tight games due to bats, and the Jeckyll and Hyde Diaz with his brutal road splits.
Some observations for 2022 –
Castro will be back. He is controllable, relatively low cost, can be a backend guy, and with his stuff there is always the chance he can have it all come together. Plan on using him 6th inning or earlier.
Rojas has said Loup has been the best pitcher not named deGrom. We rip the pen usage regularly, but they need to get credit too…some of Loup’s success is due to his usage and not exposing him that much. They need to resign him, but it will take a nice raise.
Smith is a nice piece, hopefully he can stay healthy.
Lugo and May will be back. I agree on May, pencil him in for 7th and usage later than that if others are unavailable. Lugo will hopefully be a little better next year. I see him more as a twice a week multi-inning guy that piggy backs the weakest starters. I’d prefer that usage and not penciling him in for 8th or 9th.
For closer (Diaz) and 8th inning, I can live with Diaz returning in his final pre-arb year (barring contract change) but they absolutely need to sign another guy capable of being the primary or co-closer.
I think that anyone who has paid even a little attention knew about the rotten start that Kelenic got off to in his MLB debut. And if all you did was look at his season-long numbers, you’d say it was a disappointing year and that he needs more time in the minors. But someone who has an .848 OPS in his last 100 PA doesn’t need more time in the minors. And someone with Kelenic’s pedigree could very well be ready for stardom starting on Opening Day in 2022.
The 100 PA production you cited needs some more context because it wasn’t a sustained performance over the period but rather just a 1 series outburst.
From 8/23-9/15 – he had 88 PA (21 games) with a .666 OPS
The 3 game series from 9/17-9/19 he had 12 PA (3 games) with a 2.444 OPS
You can really see how a small hot stretch of 3 games can dwarf 21 games of mediocrity. And since it just happened we don’t know if it’s just a fluke or an actual trend.
But it does beg the question, is it better to be consistent or streaky?
Is a player who has monthly of OPS of consistent .700 better than someone who alternates between .500 and 900 OPS but still average out to .700? Or someone with a .600 OPS for 5 months and then 1.200 OPS for the final month for still a season average of .700.
Statisticians would probably say it doesn’t matter because your long term average is your true talent level, but without any proof i would have to say there’s either some value in either being consistent or streaky, but i’m not sure which one provides that positive value.
Kelenic’s first 92 PA in the majors – .392 OPS and a trip back to the minors.
His next 133 PA after his recall – .583 OPS
Even if you want to eliminate his recent stretch, that .666 is still more improvement from what he did earlier in the year.
We have a guy here who made the majors faster than anyone would have anticipated at the time he was dealt. He’s had initial struggles and has made steady improvement. He’s going to be a star, regardless of his 2021 .600 OPS.
“But someone who has an .848 OPS in his last 100 PA doesn’t need more time in the minors.”
I was responding to this and my point was that a .666 OPS + a 3 game hot stretch isn’t enough justification that Kelenic must start 2022 in the major leagues and couldn’t be sent down to AAA
We’ll just have to disagree on that point. Your penalizing him for hitting the HRs in a bunch and not giving any weight to the fact he’s still doing this with a low BABIP.
There’s also the 31 K’s in the last 100 PAs to consider. That’s Baez territory.
There’s still enough negatives in his results for a pessimist to credibly argue that he does need more minors seasoning. I’m not saying he should as i don’t know enough of the M’s situation but if he does start 22 in the minors there’s baseball reasons for it.
Name,
Excellent additional breakdown. From a valuation point, you question is most apropo for Met fans. It seems will get a real life sample with Javy Baez – he may be the most streaky/mercurial player I have ever seen when taking into account, batting, fielding, and baserunning. I think he winds up close to mean with more standard deviations in each category. Maybe Daniel Murphy is runner up in my recollection.
The Mets had a good bullpen but it wasn’t efficiently used. The above chart indicates the ideal pecking order that should have used but it wasn’t. This misuse along with the early hooks of the starting pitchers was a factor with the collapse in the second half. The primary factor was the offense especially in regard to RISP and SLG.
This was another fine article from Brian and enhanced TJ thoughtful comment.
This says it all:
“This year, the Mets had the type of bullpen that good teams have. They just didn’t have the hitting to go along with it.”
That is the whole story with the Mets versus successful teams, which can walk and chew gum at the same time. I appreciate thats flippant, but its possible for a team to excel at something and have that be the narrative about the team, but we regularly see successful teams must be competent at most everything and seriously good at 1 or 2 things. The Mets bring the latter half of that equation to the table, but through sheer intent have decided to pretend the rest does not matter. So what you score more than anyone. Means nothing if you cant pitch and field. etc etc. Most of the puzzle pieces must fit to be a legit winner. And I guess the hardest things is making sure al the components are firing together – another of the Mets failures. But hey, baseball is hard.
If the Mets had this year’s bullpen and defense, to go along with just average years from Conforto, Lindor, McNeil and Smith – we would be singing a different tune. As much as you detest fans’ optimism, what reason was there to expect these four players to all have down seasons at the same time, with all of the guys being in their 20s?
This year was done in by an offense that wasn’t, to use your word, competent. Was there any thought in your mind in late March that the Mets would be more than competent in defense and bullpen but sub-competent on offense?
You should write an article next March saying what you think the team’s deficiencies are.
I can write the headline for next March’s article now: “Cano needs to go-go”.
I didnt make any claim in my comment about this year. Its just no different from most any year. To win you need to catch, thrown, run, hit all at the same time. Its not easy to do. We lived through 5 aces, which wasnt true. We’ve lived though some of the worst bull pens imaginable. Weve seen starting pitching crumble. We’ve seen amongst the worst hitting in baseball, and a problem with RISP that extends for years. The defensive liability is renown. At the same time, there have been magnificent performances like Pete, or deGrom, or McNeil, times weve hot great, times weve pitched great, times the pen has been good. There is no way of knowing in March if it all gels on a team, particularly on with a lot of OK players. Injures abound, weather is bad, coaching stinks, competition is harder etc.
I dont believe in March predictions. I think its a fools errand. There is no way to know on a mid level team what will happen. I can bet the Dodgers will be good. Seems the Astros will be – both have a lot of good players all over the diamond. The Mets are notorious in recent years for not being able to assemble all the pieces – thats true for most teams. Its surper hard and partly lucky.
As for this year. I thought the bull pen would be pretty bad, partocilarly the back end. I dont like Famailia or Diaz. Im not sure it matters much about 5-7, if 8 and 9 arent good. I thought the starters would be better. I thought defense would have to improve with mcCann and Lindor alone. But injuries and prolonged slumps are real. Hitting woth RISP…Ill guess right now for next year wont be good either if the names are the same.
From 2000-2020 (21 seasons) the Mets avg winning percentage is .493, or 80 wins. Every year we hear about 90 wins from what I believe are unrealistic optimists. In this millennium, the Mets have won 90 or more games 3 times – 2000, 2006, and 2015. The basic math says something is continuously not right with the team – who knows what it will be. Realistically, very successful campaigns are an anomaly in Flushing.
The Dodgers by comparison have won 90+ 10x, 11 with this year already and had a .717 winning percentage last year. In general, I would say that is a team that gets the benefit of the doubt about how well a season will go barring unusual post season things.
As I mentioned elsewhere, chasing malleable managers has led to very few winning/playoff seasons since they let go of Davey Johnson.
I think a very smart thing to do would be to find out both how the Mets have had success in the past and how others have done it more recently. They’ve certainly started to add more infrastructure, which was a necessary thing to do. And clearly that’s paid off, as we’ve seen in their improved defensive play with mostly the same guys from a season ago. Bully on that regard.
It’s my belief they’ll spend money this offseason and go past the luxury tax. Bully on that, too, if it comes to pass.
Do they have a manager who’ll push for, I dunno, Francisco Alvarez or Mark Vientos to make the majors on Opening Day in 2022, if they deserve it? Do they have a guy to tell the FO to cram it if they give some dictate that doesn’t make sense? Do they have a guy who will split 43 saves as close to even as possible between two relievers because their closer can’t pitch on the road?
I know it’s a football movie, but I want a manager that will “fight for that inch.” It may be naive of me but I think that matters.
Im fascinated you think the Mets problem is outside the lines, and that you are at the same time apparently looking for an old school manager with all the power yet fully dived into modern baseball metrics.
I cant see any team really handing the day-to-day the reigns of a billion dollar investment to a manager. Maybe I have had too much of the kool-aid to see differently, but modern managers are collaborators working with a whole team of of people to fill out line ups, when and who to call for a reliever etc. Davey Johnson whom we all love, is a relic, despite himself being a math type. Add to that the misery of the NY media, and a manager must handle that. Anyway, I think the person you want with the power they need to have no longer is part of this game. No manager is going to the front office like Davey did and say I dont care how old Gooden is, I need him. Player development no longer works that way at any level, when control years, in particular are at play.
I see the Mets as having primarily FO problems, who set the culture and personnel for the team, and player problems as a result of the FO problems. No manager today (ever?) is going to be handed Cano and his 20M$ per year contract and say earn a spot on the line up. That may be the the meritorious approach, but its not an actual thing. I want to see better hitting, running, fielding, and throwing as the main way to get better.
In 2021 the Mets problems in order of importance are:
4 or 5 hitters in their mid-to-late 20s falling fall short of their expected output.
An insane number of injuries, with plenty of them being to key players that held them out for a month or more
Poor performance in what are typically considered “luck” categories
Poor managerial decisions
We can do very little or nothing about the first three items. We can absolutely do something about the fourth.
Just because it’s “that’s what every team does” applies doesn’t mean we should forgive it or sweep it under the rug. It’s no different that batting your fastest guy first or thinking that batting average was the best way to measure a hitter or employing the LOOGY strategy when all you have are crappy lefty relievers. It just takes one team to say that the emperor has no clothes for the rest of the league to (eventually) follow.
You can say I’m fighting a fight with no chance of winning. You can’t say that I’m wrong.
Oh I think you are 100% right, just a bit incomplete. Many of us tread both worlds of old school baseball and what we presently have, and struggle to reconcile what we have in our hearts and minds versus what we see with our eyes.
I agree we have players falling short. No doubt. Why? I think that is a club-driven philosophy that is wrong. Id do anything to get Chili Davis back. Is it all on coaching? No, but how you address an AB certainly is.
We have an insane number of injures. Strangely enough, this is not the first go around with this. Im not sire of this is anomalous this season, but in the past it has been, leading to serious concerns about training. We regularly see insane things like people coming back not ready only to be shelved. Do they not get proper care? Do they not follow instructions? I think there is a black hole for training and conditioning that needs addressing – still – even after all we have seen. Just the messaging on deGrom: Alderson saiys he has a slight lig strain, deGrom says his elbow is fine. OK, how can the team and players not sort this out before?
I think “luck” categories are a load of bull pucky. Luck means chance. Flip a coin. BAPIP is not luck because there are strong dependencies on outcome, from fielding position to bat control. Calling that “lucky” is misinformation about actuality. We can easily see this because something truly lucky would not vary by player that much. David Wright enjoyed a very high BABIP sustained over years, not because over 1000s of PA he was lucky, but because he could handle a bat. We can expand this to RISP as well. The Mets have notoriously been pretty lousy at RISP. If it were entirely lucky then that should even out. In fact there is a lot of pressure to bring the ducks in, especially from 2 runs down. That leads to a different approach in the box, added stress, and increased failure. Ask deGrom about the genuine anomalous low run support he has had. That is not just (un)luck.
Poor mangerial decisions are a thing we see in Mets-town pretty frequently. I wont defend Rojas beyond saying Im quite confident that may of the decisions he wears come from a pre-ordained plan. So its easy to say that can be changed, but that would mean the entire FO would need to be changed to a different model, giving power to the skipper for pitch counts, whos available in the pen, batting order etc. Im not sure this lands in the category of “what all other teams do” but as the value of people has gone up exponentially, the number of eyes on every action have multiplied.
One thing that I always admire about your positioning is the entirety of your thinking comes down to factual analysis of nothing but baseball. You see the production of a team based on a meritocracy. Gotta love it. I fully embrace that. I just dont think that it has any room in the game we see.
Davey is a “math type”? I am hideously offended. Dammit Jim, I mean Chris, he’s a mathematician. Ya know, they’re humans as well.
Defense and pitching went up this year.
Hitting, power hitting (XBH), and situational hitting (RISP) went down.
Base-running got better, late in the season. Too late.
Bench play way up.
Managing poor.
Mets have a clubhouse issue… Alonso can’t really be their leader (but he is), Cano is still hanging around, Lindor and Conforto too nice, Baez probably not staying. Hard problem to solve.
Solution is to sign free agent freeman especially if we’re going to the dh next year. Maybe I’m naive (careful, I heard your mumbled agreement), but my impression of FF is of a quality human and strong yet reserved leader type
Wouldn’t that be a stunner, if we signed Freeman…..