We all know about the Mets’ inability to produce with runners in scoring position. We can go to Baseball-Reference and in a couple of clicks find out that the team is 14th in the NL in OPS with RISP, with a .695 OPS. But that doesn’t tell the entire story. Because it seems like the Mets have had more than their fair share of hits with RISP that do not plate a run. So, the hit would positively impact each of the triple slash categories, but wouldn’t do anything as far as pushing a run across. It’s like going to the store and getting buns, mustard and sauerkraut but not getting the hot dogs.
It’s simply not part of the “regular” information that B-R gives on splits. Fortunately, with their Stathead subscription service, you can find out how many times a hit didn’t score a runner from 2B – or even 3B – but it’s something you have to jump through several hoops to get. And you can essentially only get it for one team at a time. So, to do it for all 30 teams requires 30X the effort.
And in this particular case – finding out how many hits a team has with a runner on 2B that does not drive in that runner – you have to go to four separate situations. There’s a runner on second, runners on first and second, runners on second and third and bases loaded. The first two situations, you look for hits and no RBIs. The second two categories require a hit and 0 or 1 RBIs. And there were two cases so far this year where there were hits with the bases loaded that did not drive in a run. Somewhat remarkably, neither involved the Mets. If memory serves, there were five times where there were runners on second and third and no RBI, again none by the Mets.
Anyway, let’s look at each of the four situations with a runner on second base. The charts show hits that don’t drive in a run, along with total hits in that given situation. The final column shows the percentage of unsuccessful hits. The lower the percentage, the better.
Runner on second base:
| Team | H/No RBI | Chances | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 28 | 90 | 31.11% |
| D’Backs | 22 | 85 | 25.88% |
| Braves | 27 | 101 | 26.73% |
| Orioles | 21 | 88 | 23.86% |
| Red Sox | 33 | 114 | 28.95% |
| Cubs | 28 | 81 | 34.57% |
| White Sox | 21 | 93 | 22.58% |
| Reds | 28 | 88 | 31.82% |
| Indians | 35 | 106 | 33.02% |
| Rockies | 23 | 123 | 18.70% |
| Tigers | 22 | 87 | 25.29% |
| Astros | 27 | 115 | 23.48% |
| Royals | 31 | 98 | 31.63% |
| Angels | 33 | 106 | 31.13% |
| Dodgers | 26 | 81 | 32.10% |
| Marlins | 24 | 93 | 25.81% |
| Brewers | 31 | 97 | 31.96% |
| Twins | 37 | 103 | 35.92% |
| Yankees | 24 | 61 | 39.34% |
| A’s | 32 | 100 | 32.00% |
| Phillies | 32 | 81 | 39.51% |
| Pirates | 23 | 71 | 32.39% |
| Padres | 31 | 108 | 28.70% |
| Giants | 30 | 105 | 28.57% |
| Mariners | 38 | 104 | 36.54% |
| Cardinals | 25 | 106 | 23.58% |
| Rays | 17 | 84 | 20.24% |
| Rangers | 25 | 91 | 27.47% |
| Blue Jays | 25 | 108 | 23.15% |
| Nationals | 34 | 104 | 32.69% |
| Total | 833 | 2872 | 29.00% |
The Mets are below average in this split but not as bad as one might have expected. Certainly, they’ve been far superior to the Yankees in this situation. The Mets had more chances with a runner on second and fewer times did they produce a hit that didn’t drive in a run. The overall results here may not be great but you should appreciate them because they get worse from here on out.
Runners on first and second:
| Team | H/No RBI | Chances | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 24 | 66 | 36.36% |
| D’Backs | 20 | 87 | 22.99% |
| Braves | 16 | 79 | 20.25% |
| Orioles | 14 | 68 | 20.59% |
| Red Sox | 23 | 103 | 22.33% |
| Cubs | 15 | 56 | 26.79% |
| White Sox | 20 | 94 | 21.28% |
| Reds | 19 | 91 | 20.88% |
| Indians | 13 | 68 | 19.12% |
| Rockies | 17 | 70 | 24.29% |
| Tigers | 27 | 90 | 30.00% |
| Astros | 31 | 104 | 29.81% |
| Royals | 17 | 70 | 24.29% |
| Angels | 10 | 59 | 16.95% |
| Dodgers | 26 | 87 | 29.89% |
| Marlins | 17 | 72 | 23.61% |
| Brewers | 21 | 82 | 25.61% |
| Twins | 13 | 70 | 18.57% |
| Yankees | 18 | 89 | 20.22% |
| A’s | 18 | 77 | 23.38% |
| Phillies | 24 | 89 | 26.97% |
| Pirates | 25 | 71 | 35.21% |
| Padres | 21 | 79 | 26.58% |
| Giants | 20 | 79 | 25.32% |
| Mariners | 21 | 75 | 28.00% |
| Cardinals | 15 | 81 | 18.52% |
| Rays | 18 | 78 | 23.08% |
| Rangers | 18 | 75 | 24.00% |
| Blue Jays | 19 | 89 | 21.35% |
| Nationals | 29 | 96 | 30.21% |
| Total | 589 | 2394 | 24.60% |
Not only are the Mets below average here, they are the worst in baseball. They have the highest percentage of hits that don’t drive in a run. And if that’s not bad enough, they have the 28th-fewest number of chances. On a side note, it’s interesting to me that there are roughly the same number of chances for teams to hit with a runner on second as there are with runners on first and second. Even more interesting that there are more chances with just a runner on second. Must be all of those SB or sac hits that other teams are doing.
Runners on second and third:
| Team | H/No RBI | Chances | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 12 | 23 | 52.17% |
| D’Backs | 3 | 22 | 13.64% |
| Braves | 1 | 23 | 4.35% |
| Orioles | 6 | 22 | 27.27% |
| Red Sox | 4 | 23 | 17.39% |
| Cubs | 9 | 25 | 36.00% |
| White Sox | 8 | 39 | 20.51% |
| Reds | 13 | 30 | 43.33% |
| Indians | 8 | 24 | 33.33% |
| Rockies | 5 | 15 | 33.33% |
| Tigers | 9 | 20 | 45.00% |
| Astros | 12 | 37 | 32.43% |
| Royals | 10 | 29 | 34.48% |
| Angels | 15 | 47 | 31.91% |
| Dodgers | 11 | 27 | 40.74% |
| Marlins | 9 | 22 | 40.91% |
| Brewers | 3 | 21 | 14.29% |
| Twins | 7 | 24 | 29.17% |
| Yankees | 5 | 20 | 25.00% |
| A’s | 3 | 23 | 13.04% |
| Phillies | 7 | 26 | 26.92% |
| Pirates | 7 | 25 | 28.00% |
| Padres | 9 | 26 | 34.62% |
| Giants | 10 | 30 | 33.33% |
| Mariners | 8 | 18 | 44.44% |
| Cardinals | 4 | 23 | 17.39% |
| Rays | 8 | 35 | 22.86% |
| Rangers | 6 | 20 | 30.00% |
| Blue Jays | 9 | 25 | 36.00% |
| Nationals | 13 | 29 | 44.83% |
| Total | 234 | 773 | 30.27% |
Not only are the Mets the worst team in baseball in percentage of empty hits in this situation, no other team is within 7% of them. And to make things even worse, there’s a huge divide between first and last in this split. The Braves have only one hit in 23 chances that didn’t drive in the runner from second base. And that one was by a pitcher. Maybe the Mets make up for it with three runners on base.
Bases loaded:
| Team | H/No RBI | Chances | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 13 | 28 | 46.43% |
| D’Backs | 10 | 37 | 27.03% |
| Braves | 10 | 34 | 29.41% |
| Orioles | 7 | 31 | 22.58% |
| Red Sox | 10 | 37 | 27.03% |
| Cubs | 11 | 31 | 35.48% |
| White Sox | 5 | 31 | 16.13% |
| Reds | 8 | 34 | 23.53% |
| Indians | 9 | 28 | 32.14% |
| Rockies | 5 | 26 | 19.23% |
| Tigers | 10 | 41 | 24.39% |
| Astros | 8 | 43 | 18.60% |
| Royals | 10 | 28 | 35.71% |
| Angels | 7 | 26 | 26.92% |
| Dodgers | 12 | 51 | 23.53% |
| Marlins | 8 | 23 | 34.78% |
| Brewers | 6 | 35 | 17.14% |
| Twins | 11 | 26 | 42.31% |
| Yankees | 10 | 37 | 27.03% |
| A’s | 13 | 29 | 44.83% |
| Phillies | 11 | 42 | 26.19% |
| Pirates | 7 | 25 | 28.00% |
| Padres | 3 | 32 | 9.38% |
| Giants | 13 | 41 | 31.71% |
| Mariners | 10 | 33 | 30.30% |
| Cardinals | 10 | 27 | 37.04% |
| Rays | 10 | 46 | 21.74% |
| Rangers | 6 | 22 | 27.27% |
| Blue Jays | 8 | 34 | 23.53% |
| Nationals | 7 | 28 | 25.00% |
| Total | 268 | 986 | 27.18% |
Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the Mets have the highest percentage of hits in this split that don’t drive in a run. Hey, at least the Braves are below average in this split. But before we get too excited about that, the Braves are second in the NL with 10 grand slam home runs. The Mets have three, one more than the last-place D’Backs.
Now here are all four situations added together:
| Team | H/No RBI | Chances | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 77 | 207 | 37.20% |
| D’Backs | 55 | 231 | 23.81% |
| Braves | 54 | 237 | 22.78% |
| Orioles | 48 | 209 | 22.97% |
| Red Sox | 70 | 277 | 25.27% |
| Cubs | 63 | 193 | 32.64% |
| White Sox | 54 | 257 | 21.01% |
| Reds | 68 | 243 | 27.98% |
| Indians | 65 | 226 | 28.76% |
| Rockies | 50 | 234 | 21.37% |
| Tigers | 68 | 238 | 28.57% |
| Astros | 78 | 299 | 26.09% |
| Royals | 68 | 225 | 30.22% |
| Angels | 65 | 238 | 27.31% |
| Dodgers | 75 | 246 | 30.49% |
| Marlins | 58 | 210 | 27.62% |
| Brewers | 61 | 235 | 25.96% |
| Twins | 68 | 223 | 30.49% |
| Yankees | 57 | 207 | 27.54% |
| A’s | 66 | 229 | 28.82% |
| Phillies | 74 | 238 | 31.09% |
| Pirates | 62 | 192 | 32.29% |
| Padres | 64 | 245 | 26.12% |
| Giants | 73 | 255 | 28.63% |
| Mariners | 77 | 230 | 33.48% |
| Cardinals | 54 | 237 | 22.78% |
| Rays | 53 | 243 | 21.81% |
| Rangers | 55 | 208 | 26.44% |
| Blue Jays | 61 | 256 | 23.83% |
| Nationals | 83 | 257 | 32.30% |
| Total | 1924 | 7025 | 27.39% |
When you’re the worst in three of the four situations, it shouldn’t come as a surprise when you’re the worst overall. The Mets don’t get enough hits with runners in scoring position and on top of that, 37.2% of the hits that they do get don’t drive in a runner from second base. MLB average in this split is 27.39%. And the best mark in the majors is the 21.01% rate of the White Sox. In case you didn’t know, the White Sox sit with an 85-66 mark.
There’s a lot of interesting information in each of these charts, so don’t just look at the Mets. But the clear takeaway is that the raw OPS of the Mets in these situations doesn’t fully explain their futility this year with a runner on second base. Just another reminder that things can always be (or get) worse than they appear at first glance.
The Open Thread will be posted tomorrow.
It’s like gazing at the Dead Sea Scrolls or a draft of the Old Testament… the actual hand written notes of God… Egads, Brian, you are a treasure for these Mets fans. Have you ever talked with Gary Cohen? Does he know of your resource?
I’m not sure it is directly related to RISP issues, but I notice how often Mets players foul off first pitch swings. Ideally, if you are swinging at a first pitch, it is because it is exactly what you are looking for. Yet all season long I’ve seen McNeil and others foul off
1. first pitch fastballs right in the hitting zone
2. pitches later in the count that broadcasters would call “mistakes” by the pitcher, yet the Mets hitters did not square them up
3. hittable pitches with RISP that would have gotten the job done to some extent.
I’ve come to the conclusion that good hitters hit the middle-middle pitches more consistently. Hitters like McCann, Lindor and McNeil foul them off.
The difference? Thirty points in BA, 100 in OPS… many more runs for the team.
Watching strikes and swinging at balls. It’s been a problem on the Mets for awhile. How do you fix it? I dunno but if Javier Baez can improve his chase numbers, you have to believe others can, too, if they admit to themselves that it’s a problem.
I guess the game still Comes down to scoring runs !
Name and I were talking a little about this in chatter last night. I also have seen a number of guy on first then the Mets hit a ground rule double so instead of getting the runner in, it’s second and third and neither score! Or, instead of a bases clearing double is a GR double and 1 scores or we get a sac fly.
This is truly hard to believe, but the numbers are what they are. What the heck can be done? We all had plenty of faith in McNeil putting up some quality numbers, as he has done every prior year. We expected Dom to continue to improve after turning a corner and being among 2020 team leaders in several categories. I recall you specifically, Brian, saying that Conforto’s numbers from 2020 couldn’t possibly be sustained given his incredibly high BABIP. Nonetheless, this was his walk year, so even though he wouldn’t bat .320, he’d still do quite well. As for Lindor, enough said.
So, what to do? I would rely on good ol’ Regression To The Mean, that is, “the phenomenon that arises if a sample point of a random variable is extreme (nearly an outlier), a future point is likely to be closer to the mean or average.” In other words, don’t panic and trade McNeil and/or Dom for a sack of sunflower seeds, get Conforto, despite his employing of Boras, to agree to a QO instead of demanding a huge lengthy contract, that is, a chance to prove himself worthy of the big bucks.
Everyone around here, including PECOTA, was certain the Mets would have a strong offense. I’d stick to that view, but add much needed depth to the rotation
I don’t know how much more depth a team can reasonably acquire than what the Mets had going into this season. It’s kind of hard to plan have your starter and backup at multiple positions being hurt at the same time. I didn’t like the ABs that went to Patrick Mazeika this year but are you really supposed to pay a guy major league money to be your third-string catcher? Yet that’s what the Mets needed when McCann and Nido were hurt at the same time. And that wasn’t the only time/position that happened.
Thanks Brian for the very telling analysis. Can’t imagine when you find the time to do all this and still have a life. Have to agree with Mr. Math that this horrid pattern is a blip and that we should not panic and sell off for peanuts. But if we have a good crop coming up in the next few years, who would otherwise be blocked by some who were mentioned, then moving those pieces for an everyday CF and 3B who can both hit and field at the same time would be a move in the right direction. Seems all McNeil had to do was wake up and he would get two hits, and even Lindor had a monster bat in Cleveland before arriving here and forgetting how to hit. I’d start from the top down with a strong GM and a tried and true field manager. Then a hitting coach. Having watched a great deal of their games this year what is most disappointing in all the stats is that they would not have had to had that much improvement to still be at the top of their division. It would not have gotten them far in the playoffs but they would have been in them. The loss of Jake was the biggest blow as they no longer had their ace. His winning the first game of a series put the other team on their heals and then facing Walker and Stroman early in the year became the other teams hurdle. When we have a backend that 5 innings is the norm, it is too much of a lift for the pen to carry, especially when we could not give a cushion by knocking in all those ducks on the pond. I am optimistic about 2022 but would have liked to finish over .500 this year. Your presentation shows why that could not happen.
Thanks!
This past offseason, people wanted to trade Alonso for pennies on the dollar to open a spot for Smith. It will be curious to see if/when the new front office is put in place, if Smith will still be a Met. He seems the most likely to be traded from my POV.
Wow! Very impressive, Brian. Thanks for putting jn the time and for laying this out so clearly. Your work proves what our eyes can see and the contrast versus the better teams is telling. I wonder what the root cause of this is? Poor base running? Higher proportion of weak hits or infield hits? Overly cautious coaching from Disarcina? The latter rings true for me, the awful Alonso send aside.
Pieces like this are nowhere else to be found and this is why I read every word of M360. Thank you Brian.
Thanks Bull!
Not sure the reason why. My guess is that it’s a combination of bad luck and not the best approach in these situations. For all four situations, we’re talking about 207 chances, That’s not a huge sample and wacky things could happen. Of course, if they got more hits in this split, there would be more chances…
Mad Kudos to you Brian for spending the time and effort to figure this out.
When you’re one of the worst hitting teams in RISP and have the lowest conversion of scoring runs with RISP, that’s an easy formula for having one of the worst offenses in the game.
Mets average is 37% failure rate, average is 27%. That 10% difference over 200 chance equates to 20 runs lost, which considering the amount of 1-run games that they have been involved in could have turned 5? losses into wins which probably would have been more than enough for the 2021 Mets to at least still be realistically be in the playoff hunt instead of the situation they are in now