Michael Conforto and the free-agency gamble

Back when I had the time to follow the Mets minor league system much more closely than I’m able to today, I fell into the trap of “falling in love” with several of the Mets’ prospects more often than I care to admit. They tend to break your heart, as the saying goes, and over the years there have been plenty that I thought were sure to be the next Mets superstar only for them to never even sniff the major leagues (if not for those injuries, Reese Havens!).

When Michael Conforto was drafted in 2014, he instantly became one of the players I was most excited to see develop. I even made it a point to watch him play in Double-A when the old Binghamton Mets rolled into Bowie in 2015 shortly before his call to the show. Those were seemingly simpler times in Metsland.

Fast forward to 2021, and the approaching end of another disappointing Mets season is highlighted by underwhelming performances from the team’s young core of position players. The leader, if you will, of that pack of underachievers is Conforto himself. At the conclusion of what will be his worst season to date, it’s starting to look like he may be positioning himself as one of the most frustrating subcategories of heart-breaking prospects. Rather than being one of the innumerable “never was” prospects the game has seen, Conforto is knocking on the door of “almost was,” which is infinitely more frustrating in many ways. Ike Davis says hello.

The book is far from written on Conforto, of course, and rumors of his (career’s) demise are greatly exaggerated at this point. He’s turned it on quite a bit recently, and he’s historically been a better second half player over his career. That streakiness can be maddening, though, particularly when set against the overarching offensive issues the team has faced this season.

Still, 2021 has been an odd season for the right fielder. He’s walked at a rate consistent with his best seasons (12.5 BB%), and he’s striking out less than ever (minus his rookie year) by a good bit (21.8 K%). Yet he’s getting on base at one of the worst clips of his career (.339 OBP), his batting average is terrible (.222), and his slugging (.364) has cratered to well below his career norm. Just like the lineup as a whole, his performance has been beyond perplexing. Statistically, he’s also played some of the worst defense of his career. It’s possible that he’s letting his struggles at the plate spill over to the field, but he’s doing himself no favors here in terms of overall value.

Of course, the glaring statistic that has been at the heart of many Conforto conversations cannot be ignored here: his BABIP is currently sitting at .266, which is the lowest it’s been since his second-worst showing during the 2016 season. His 2020 .412 BABIP was never sustainable, but he’s put up much better seasons with a BABIP closer to the league average. In fact, almost exactly a year ago I argued that Conforto was doing the things he needed to do to create his own good luck with regard to balls in play.

To summarize that piece, as a lefty that consistently sees the shift Conforto needs to ensure he doesn’t become pull-happy in his approach. The shift appears to have a more significant effect on left-handed hitters that pull more often. He’s been consistently high on the “shifted on” leader boards throughout his career, and this season he’s seeing the shift more than ever. When combined with the fact that his pull percentage (41.3%) is almost ten points higher than last season, we start to get a picture of how things have gone off the rails for him this year. In contrast to last year, as well as the title of the aforementioned article, Conforto has been making himself some really bad luck this season. At least, he’s not doing himself any favors regarding adjustments to the shift. General bad luck can also be a contributing factor here, of course.

Conforto is clearly going to need to take steps to adjust his approach to the modern defensive game, or he’s simply never going to thrive in the modern MLB at a level he has shown he has the potential to achieve. It’s questionable if the Mets as an organization, and specifically their organizational hitting philosophy, have the capability to help him reach that potential. That disconnect between performance and potential makes the upcoming offseason an important one for both player and team. According to Anthony DiComo, the Mets are primed to extend a qualifying offer, though his sources note that it’s unlikely Conforto accepts it.

With an agent like Scott Boras, Conforto declining the offer would be one of the least surprising turn of events this winter. He’s still in the prime of his career and, arguably, may not have actually peaked to this point. He’s going to get a sizable contract from some team, but his performance this season now puts into question just how big that contract will be and whether or not that team should be the Mets. Barring some huge leap forward in the coming years, this is likely to be the 28-year-old’s best chance for a large and lengthy contract. He’s not a superstar, and at this point he likely never will be, but there’s enough here for the Mets to re-sign him for the right price. They’ll need to gamble on whether this season is a blip and if they believe there’s still more there to be unlocked when valuing what it would cost to re-sign him.

The team might be a bit gun-shy due to the early (lack of) returns on the Francisco Lindor contract, and it’s always risky negotiating with an agent you can be sure is salivating at the prospect of getting Steve Cohen to open up those coffers. For the right price, though, it’s worth locking up Conforto through his early thirties. If the price tag isn’t right the team should simply move on, wish him luck wherever he ends up, and hope he doesn’t become the latest former Met to break out.