August was bad for the Mets and September has been worse. While the record has been slightly better so far in September, it felt like at least the club was trying in August. For the most part, the club has seemed lifeless in the last 10 games. They played hard in the series against the Yankees and apparently packed their bags, ready to go home, once that series concluded.
But there have been some strong individual performances so far this month. Javier Baez – in what some are calling his eve of free agency mirage – has improved his plate discipline and posted a 1.058 OPS in 91 PA. Brandon Nimmo, limited to just 43 PA this month due to a hamstring injury, has been terrific when healthy, putting up a .945 OPS, with a double, two triples and a homer. Pete Alonso, in a late push to hit 40 homers, has 6 HR this month and an .896 OPS. And Francisco Lindor is continuing his strong last two-thirds of the year, with an .879 OPS.
Does anyone wonder why Baez can pull a free agency spark while Michael Conforto can’t? Conforto has just a .684 OPS in his previous 91 PA. People always credit impending free agency when a player has a good season in his walk year. But there are just as many ho-hum or worse seasons before guys become free agents. Maybe that upcoming free agency = big year is one of those myths we can throw in the trash can. Call it our parting gift to Conforto.
Jeff McNeil has put up virtually the same OPS, with a .683 mark. James McCann wishes he was as mediocre as Conforto and McNeil, as he has just a .188/.255/.313 line. It’s nice that McCann’s thrown out some baserunners but his 78 OPS+ is an anchor. His 0.6 fWAR is less than half of what Wilson Ramos (1.5) gave the club in his first year with the Mets back in 2019.
DYING ON THE RUN SUPPORT HILL – When the Mets traded for Rich Hill, the idea was to remove a TBA from the starting rotation, even if you knew full well he was never going deep into games. The idea was that Hill would pitch between 4-6 innings each game and give you a chance to win. With the Mets’ deep pen, it seemed like a good pickup. And it has been, as Hill has given the club exactly what was expected.
In his 11 starts with the Mets, Hill has failed to pitch into the fifth inning just one time – a 3.2 IP outing. As a starter, he has a 3.58 ERA. Yet the Mets are just 4-7 in his starts and Hill has an 0-4 record. The Mets have scored just 32 runs in his 11 starts, seven times scoring three runs or fewer. In his last four starts, the club has scored a total of just five runs, twice losing games by a score of 2-1.
At this point, my preference is for the Mets to re-sign Hill for 2022 and let guys like Tylor Megill and David Peterson start the year in Triple-A.
FIGHTING FOR THE TEAM OPS CROWN – Among players who’ve been on the Mets all season long, there’s a tie for the top OPS. Both Alonso and Nimmo have .848 OPS marks heading into Sunday’s game, even if the way they got there was different. Alonso has slugged his way there, with 35 HR, a .510 SLG and a .253 ISO. Nimmo has done it with hits and walks. He has a .305 AVG and a .414 OBP. A finger injury apparently robbed Nimmo of his power for most of the year. He’s delivering enough XBH down the stretch that at least his SLG will be more than his OBP. Of course the big difference is that Alonso has been healthier, as he’s been able to amass 604 PA to Nimmo’s 354.
WALKER’S MISERABLE SECOND HALF – Taijuan Walker made the All-Star team this year, an injury-replacement pick for Jacob deGrom. And he had a strong first half, so it wasn’t a charity pick. But boy did clock strike midnight on Walker’s season, turning him into a pumpkin. He failed to get out of the first inning in his initial start of the second half. And it hasn’t gotten much better since.
In 12 games here in the second half, Walker has a 7.74 ERA, one that he’s pretty much earned with a 7.27 FIP. And it’s not a case of the hits falling in, as he has just a .255 BABIP. Rather, other teams have just pummeled him, as they’ve hit 20 HR in 57 IP. It’s tough to win when you average allowing over 3 HR per 9 IP. And the crazy thing is that in the beginning of the year, Walker allowed just 1 HR in his first 53.2 IP. Whether he ran out of gas or is tipping his pitches, there’s simply no way for any pitcher to succeed with the type of HR rate Walker has had after the All-Star break.
ONE-RUN MISERY – With last night’s 2-1 loss, the Mets are now 29-33 in one-run games this season. The thing that causes so much pain is that the Mets have gone 3-16 in one-run games since August 13. They were tied for first place at the start of the streak. Now they are in third place, nine games behind. Before the streak, the Mets were 26-17 (.605) in games decided by a single run. If they kept that pace up over the last 19 games, they would have gone 11-8. Eight extra wins would sure look nice right about now. It would make them 81-73 and put them just one game behind the Braves.
“Walker has a 7.74 ERA… with a 7.27 FIP… has just a .255 BABIP.”
Dear Lord, has anyone ever seen anything like this? I can’t recall in this era where BABIP has become a “thing”
I keep hearing how Lindor got off to a bad start but played to his expectable numbers ever since. While this may be true, I believe his poor bat in the number 2 or 3 position in the order has been fundamental to the Mets woes this season. To my mind, that one or two week of hot hitting he had this season does not nearly make up for the myriad at bats he failed to be productive. Those one-run losses are largely the result of the Mets truly pathetic offense and failings score more runs, period. Many of those games were meant to be two and three-run victories!
I’ll go a big step further and say outright that the Lindor signing (not the trade) was the demise of this season and perhaps many more coming. Lindor does not seem to be “cornerstone” of a franchise. He’s a nice third or fourth key player, but hardly a superstar: he hits worse than he should, he is a medium-level defender, he runs slower than he should, and his demeanor does not add gravity to the team… maybe if the Cardinals had him they would mold him into a serious player, or even the Braves… but he is bad news for a Mets team lacking a center and needing core strength. His raiding of the treasury early in the tenure of the new owner has done far more harm to this team than the casual fan will ever know. And if he recruits Baez, I believe you can pencil in the Mets for .500 baseball for the next decade.
Wobbit, at first glance your comment is golden. But, Lindor was on a Hall of Fame tract according to baseball writers at the time of trade. HOF players don’t happen by accident. I can be happy if Lindor performs at the level of his last 2/3 of the season every year going forward, but certainly that contract is a bit hasty and hard to believe there was value there.
It is interesting Nimmo the same OPS as Alonso. If you were building a team I would think most fans would pick Alonso before Nimmo. In fangraphs Nimmo beats Alonso in fWAR and also in RC+. This team has an elite lead off hitting and elite homerun hitter but can’t produce runs.
Hill did pitch his 4-6 innings has expected and then there was some combination of Lugo, May, Familia and Castro to pitch an inning a piece. They all have similar ERA’s so if Lugo pitched 3-4 innings piggyback then it would have saved the bullpen.
Walker shouldn’t be penciled into the starting rotation because of his second half. This is another reason to sign the 42 year old Hill. He is also affordable. ( contract of $2.3m. this year)
The lack of one key hit with RISP resulted in many of the one run losses, This team, presently constructed, can’t hit under pressure. Changes should be made this off season.
Lindor now gets the same money or more than Machado, Cole, Harper, Tatis, Betts, Arenado and other franchise players I can’t think of. No way he is anywhere close to those players. He’s like the last guy on to a life raft before the boat sinks… if the Mets had the wisdom and the guts, they would have let him play into his contract for this season. Worse case scenario, the guy had a great year and gets a better offer elsewhere, they lose him and pick up any number of FA shortstops.
Lindor needs to slash .270/ 25 hr /90 rbi with 20 steals for the next five years to even show his face. Is that asking too much?… he’s like 27 years old.
I know hindsight is 20/20, but it was the vacuum in the Mets front office that was exploited by the Lindor camp… and the Mets will pay dearly for a decade. Sandy A really needs to retire gracefully and make Cohen’s decision much easier.
How about these numbers for shortstops?
Avg. HR RBI AB R H 2B 3B SB OBP OPS SLG K BB
#1 .281 10 51 524 71 147 23 6 12 317 722 405 116 27
#2 .228 17 55 421 68 96 16 2 10 322 719 397 88 55
As of today, these are the stats for our former SS Amed Rosario making 2.4 million in Cleveland. (player #1)
And our HOF to be upgrade of Fransisco Lindor, making 22.3 million and not including the 21 million signing bonus he received. We are also saddled with Lindor for a decade, while Rosario will probably earn a salary increase from someone on his 1 year contract.
Of course I’m not including either players defense, field generalship, and BB smarts, but is that worth 10x the salary difference for this year?
I know, I know, hindsight is 20/20, but why would any organization tie up $$$ long time for any player?
6 years ago today I was celebrating the NL East championship in Cincy. Seems like 100 years ago. This team is a long way from actually being competitive.
Not sure we’re we would have been without our bench this year. For periods of time they really stepped up and led this team. Then they reverted to bench players because that’s what they are, not starters. Walker looked like the steal of the off-season when he pitched like an ace but why couldn’t anyone straighten him out in the second half?? The failure to drive runs in was the back breaker. I do believe we are not that far behind the Phillies and the Braves and yes that parts of this roster need to be playing elsewhere next season. I’d really like to see the spigots open on Cohen’s bank account.
With the 3rd highest payroll in BB, the Mets do spend; and have spent $$$. They just aren’t very smart about it.