Following the 2019 season, there were no shortage of articles suggesting that the Mets trade for Starling Marte, who was supposed to be the answer to the club’s long-standing need to find a center fielder. Hey, if you’re athletic and can steal some bases, you can be a great CF, right? The advanced defensive numbers didn’t quite jibe with the thoughts of Marte as a great defensive option. And the Pirates were seemingly asking more from the Mets than from other teams. He ultimately was traded to the Diamondbacks for a package nowhere near what the alleged price was for the Mets.
And Marte has played well since that time, including a 5.4 fWAR season in 120 games last year. That would be outstanding production for a 150-game season. Unlike two years ago, Marte is a free agent this time. And because he was traded during the previous season, there’s no QO attached to his signing. That means all it will cost is money. And the Mets should absolutely be interested. Five-win guys don’t grow on trees – there were just 19 hitters last year who reached that level.
Even if Marte falls back to Steamer’s 3.1 fWAR projection for 2022, that’s still a solid replacement for Michael Conforto in right field. Because he’s not a CF. In his career, Marte has played at least 100 innings in center seven times. And in those seven years, he’s finished with a negative DRS in five of them, including the last three years, where he has a combined (-14) DRS, including a (-4) last season.
The main trouble with fielding stats is that they take longer to give you a true-talent level. You can’t take one year’s worth of fielding numbers and say – this guy is good! Or, this guy is bad! But with a (-14) DRS in his last 2,650.2 innings in CF, we have a pretty good idea that Marte is not a good defensive option in center. Additionally, defense generally peaks earlier than offense in the majority of cases. We all remember Juan Lagares as a great defensive center fielder in 2013-14 when he was age 24-25 and had a combined 50 DRS. But in 2019-21, when he was age 30-32, Lagares has a combined 1 DRS. Marte will be 33 next season.
It’s hard to fight perception. And while the perception among many is that Marte is a good defensive player in center, the same people perceive Brandon Nimmo as a poor defensive option in CF. Nimmo doesn’t have the innings in center that Marte has. But the numbers viewed him as a below-average option from 2016-19 and a terrible one in 2020.
But recall that it takes longer for defensive numbers to stabilize. And that terrible 2020 season for Nimmo in center consisted of just 308.1 innings. Generally, 1,200 innings is considered a “full” season. Nimmo was not good in 2020. But he was not good in about ¼ of a season in a metric that generally takes 2-3 years to have enough chances to make a good judgment.
Nimmo rebounded from his rotten defensive 2020 to post a good defensive season in 2021. He recorded a +4 DRS last year, albeit in only 678.2 innings. Just like 2020 didn’t mean that Nimmo was one of the worst defensive CF in the game, 2021 doesn’t mean he’s now an above-average one, either.
However, we know something that the raw numbers don’t, in that there was a significant change in Nimmo’s defensive game last year. After having difficulty on numerous plays where he had to go back on a ball in 2020 (and earlier) – the Mets had Nimmo play deeper last season. To be clear, this doesn’t negate the influence of small samples on Nimmo’s results in 2021. It’s just that we know that Nimmo and the Mets did something specific to attack a weakness, so that perhaps all of the differences from 2020 to 2021 shouldn’t be prescribed to luck and small samples.
Up until now, the only numbers that have been cited are DRS ones, although UZR essentially shows the same thing, if not quite as bullish on Lagares’ 2013-14 numbers. But let’s bring Statcast numbers into the discussion.
One of the nice things about Statcast defensive numbers is the inclusion of “Estimated Success Rate,” which gives you an idea about the overall difficulty of the plays a fielder has to make, which goes at least part way towards addressing the sample size issue. The fewer number of plays you have to make, the more potential there is for a handful of tough plays to influence your overall rating.
In 2020, Nimmo had an Estimated Success Rate of 88% while playing CF and had an actual Success Rate of 84%. In 2021, those numbers were 91% and 93%, respectively. So, Nimmo had tougher plays to make overall in 2020 and he made fewer than we would have expected. By contrast, he had easier plays to make in 2021 and made more than we would have expected. Combine the two years together and we have an Estimated Success Rate of 90% and an actual Success Rate of 90% in CF. But that’s still only 987 innings and 308 chances.
Now let’s check in on Marte. In 2021, Marte had an 88% Success Rate with an 87% Estimated Success Rate. So, he wasn’t as successful as Nimmo, in part because he had harder plays to make.
And this is what it comes down to for all players. If you make it to the majors, you’re going to be able to make the vast majority of the “easy” plays. Typically, what determines how good you are is how you do on the “hard” plays. Statcast further breaks down their degree of difficulty into five different buckets, from 1-star difficulty (91% and up) to 5-star difficulty (0-25%). Marte had 36 4-star and 5-star plays to make last year. Nimmo had 15. Let’s look at that on a per-inning basis. Marte had 1,022.2 innings in CF last year with 36 difficult plays, for an average of one every 28.4 innings. In 678.2 innings for Nimmo, he had 15 difficult plays, for an average of one every 45.2 innings.
Marte made three of those 36 plays, while Nimmo made three of 15. And because he’s listed close to Marte and Nimmo, let’s throw Jackie Bradley Jr. into the mix. In 722 innings last year in CF, Bradley Jr. had 17 difficult plays to make, for an average of one every 42.4 innings. He made just one of those 17 plays.
If you have more than twice as many difficult plays, you should convert twice as many into outs. And Marte didn’t do that. It’s a possibility that if Nimmo had 21 additional “hard” plays to make last year, that he wouldn’t have made one of them. But I wouldn’t wager on that with your money.
Nimmo made 20% of his difficult plays last year while Marte made 8.3%. In 2020, Nimmo made 2-16 (12.5%) while Marte made 2-13 (15.3%). In 2020, Nimmo had more difficult plays than Marte, despite playing in 178.1 fewer innings. If nothing else, hopefully all of these numbers will reinforce the idea that we need to make evaluations defensively on larger sample sizes.
Clearly, we don’t have enough innings for Nimmo in CF to say how good he is defensively, especially since there’s been a big change last year in his positioning. However, in his most innings at center in any season of his career in 2021, Nimmo turned in his best results. We have more innings to work with for Marte and the results are not good, even if he has had more tough chances to handle. Those hard plays are where you get opportunity to really move the needle for your defensive numbers. And for Marte, they’ve moved in the wrong direction.
Marte is not a better center fielder then Nimmo. If the Mets which sign him as a free agent he would be there left fielder. He has zero experience in right field and hasn’t played there. He is 33 years old and he wants a multi-year contract in excess of 20 million dollars. Signing him would not solve the problem in right field. If the Mets are going to sign a player to a multi-year contract in excess of 20 million dollars then they might do better signing the 29 year old Conforto. Career-wise Conforto is a better player with a OPS+ of 124 compared to Marte’s 116. Then again, Bryant has a 132 career average, the same as Marte career high last year, so Bryant should be the primary target not Marte. Marte could be a fall back if they don’t sign Bryant or Conforto but that would mean that McNeil or Lee could be in right field. Leave Nimmo alone in centerfield in 2022. He earned it.
Nimmo, GP, AB – Marte, GP, AB
2016: 32, 73 – 129, 489
2017: 69, 177 – 77, 309
2018: 140, 433 – 145, 559
2019: 69, 199 – 132, 539
2020: 55, 186 – 61, 228
2021: 92, 325 – 120, 467
16-21: 457, 1393 – 664, 2591
difference: Marte has played in 207 games more than Nimmo and had 1198 more ABs across this time span.
Nimmo’s record has to be filtered through all the other crap metrics in CF the Mets trot out there on a *regular* basis.
Im not saying Marte is Mike Trout, but that guy can play.
Nimmo plays deep. He then has to forfeit a lot of short hits guys like Lagares gets to, or is on position for an assist. Nimmo plays deep and has a crap arm.
Im not against Nimmo. Quite frankly Ive come around a long way on him. His biggest issue, and its gigantic is simple: he cant stay on the field. Mets CF metrics need to include the other people that also man the position who are not as good.
Nimmo definitely has injury issues that the team needs to take into account but you’re exaggerating the issue by including 2016-17 when he wasn’t thought of as a starter by anyone.
Sure. get rid of ’16 and the story is no different. Nimmo cannot be considered “every day” when he’s only on the field 60% of the time, for an average of < 100 games per season. In a world where 10 wins makes a difference, thats a lot of games from the sideline.
Over the 17-21 seasons, Marte was on the field 76% of the time, or about 120 games per season on average (for a 162 game season).
My issue is you’re not being honest.
2016 – He’s a September call-up. His lack of games has nothing to do with injury.
2017 – He’s in the minors in the first 2 1/2 months and is a bench player upon his recall. His lack of games has nothing to to with injury.
2018 – He plays in 140 games, just five off Marte’s high from 2016 on
2019 – Missed 3 months with injury
2020 – Played in 92% of the team’s scheduled games and the only reason he didn’t play more is that his since-fired manager thought he was a platoon player.
2021 – Missed 2 months with injury.
Nimmo is absolutely an injury concern going into 2022, having missed multiple months in two of the past three years. But those injuries are generally not the ones that are considered chronic. You want to make sure you have a guy capable of playing CF on the roster given his recent history. Like I said to TJ – that’s one of the things that makes Marte appealing this time around. But the number of games he played in 2016 *and* 2017 have no impact on his ability to stay healthy in 2022 and beyond.
Nimmo’s been healthy 4 of the past 6 years. In a way, it’s not too different from Marte, who missed 42 games last year and 85 in 2017.
Edit: September call-up for 2016 is not right. He was riding the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors. But the point remains that his lack of MLB playing time had nothing to do with injury.
Marte seems to be drawing early interest, for what that is worth. I like hit as a target mostly because the Mets can use an OF and bat, there is no QO attached, and the number of years required should not exceed 3. I won’t cry if he goes elsewhere, but it will be very interesting to see how the Mets behave if is market gets very hot and he wants to sign before the union contract expires. Gong forward, I don’t expect above average CF defense from either Marte or Nimmo, but it should be good enough given the offense provided. And, whichever is not in CF should provide plus defense in a corner.
The nice thing to me about potentially signing Marte is his presence takes away the need to have a Jake Marisnick or Kevin Pillar on the roster. Your 4th OF doesn’t have to cover CF if Nimmo gets hurt – you slide Marte in there, instead. It allows you to carry someone like a Jose Martinez as a bench bat, someone who’s calling card is offense. And you make sure you have a Mason Williams stashed away in Triple-A.
Excellent point. And, thanks for the Sunday school session. Perhaps you can request one of your favorites as the AAA stash guy…Billy H or Mallex S come to mind.
Nice analysis. Last year we learned that Nimmo can play CF but it came about with hard work. Marte is a pro and could help in any OF spot. Bryant fits in both at 3B as a place holder for Vientos and in OF. If Lee can continue to hit at AAA he might be up by mid season. One more established player in the OF is a must instead of always filling in with IF’s playing out of position. Open that checkbook!
And how cool is it Brian that your analysis made the Yardbarker daily update. Bravo!
Preach Brian! Excellent points.
I just came across the fact that Marte served and 80 game suspension for PED violation in 2017. I’m out on him…can’t trust any of those numbers or that he won’t wind up with another suspension a la Mr. Cano.
Very good article and discussion. You have cooled me off on Marte, but he’s still a welcome addition… but I love speed and contact hitting above all else. Love to see Nimmo in LF, play every day… hit lefties big time this year.