Before the lockout came, we saw Eduardo Escobar come and Javier Baez go. Jonathan Villar is still out there but it’s doubtful he’s coming back. If forced to guess, the big wildcard is if the Mets will make a run at Kris Bryant once the labor dispute is settled. Previously, though, it’s always seemed like Mets fans liked Bryant more than the front office did. We’ll see if Billy Eppler brings a different mindset to the table in regards to Bryant.
If Bryant signs elsewhere, then the big question is what happens with Robinson Cano? Are senior citizen drug cheats the new market inefficiency? There’s been little talk about how the Mets plan to handle the Cano conundrum. It seems like they’re going to have him come to Spring Training to see what he’s got left. My hope, much like with Jeurys Familia last year at this time, was that the bottomless check book of Steve Cohen would allow the Mets to walk away from a player who was unlikely to help them, regardless of the amount of money they were owed.
Familia played all year for the Mets and put up a 3.94 ERA, a 1.416 WHIP and allowed a .767 OPS. The league averages were a 4.48 ERA, a 1.293 WHIP and a .725 OPS. Additionally, Familia posted a 0.0 fWAR and a (-0.30) WPA. Yeah, he wasn’t good. It seems to me that we’re headed for the same thing if Cano comes back this year. May our new manager resist the temptation to play him as much as Luis Rojas utilized Familia.
So, if Bryant doesn’t come to Queens and Cano is limited to a 100-PA role that means the Mets line up Escobar and third base and Jeff McNeil at second base and the infield is set, right? Odds are that’s what the Opening Day lineup will be. Yet, if J.D. Davis is on the roster, he should figure into things somehow.
Most people want to dismiss Davis by saying he’s not great defensively and ignore what he can do, which is hit. As much as it would be a mistake to hand Davis a starting job without considering his defensive issues, it’s equally foolish to act like he’s nothing more than a bench piece, one used just to give others a day off or if someone winds up on the IL. Davis simply is better than that.
Assorted injuries truncated what could have been as big of a year for Davis as 2019 was, when he put up an .895 OPS in 140 games. Everyone remembers the great start that he got off to and they also remembered how little he was used once Baez was acquired. The injuries he battled seem to figure little into the equation for most people.
Three times last year, Davis was sidelined with hand/finger injuries. Ultimately, he had surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left hand in early October. We saw how much a finger injury derailed Brandon Nimmo’s season last year. It caused him to miss two months and when he came back, he was missing the power he had previously. It wasn’t until late August when Nimmo displayed his usual power.
Hopefully, with a full off-season to recuperate, Davis heads to Spring Training 100% healthy.
A healthy Davis should force the new manager to be creative to get him consistent playing time. The easiest thing to do is just use Escobar and McNeil as starters. But that doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do. Davis hit when he was healthy, which is more than we can say for McNeil. Now, we don’t want to overreact to one bad season for McNeil. But we should extend the same courtesy to Davis, who actually hasn’t had a bad season, rather he’s had injury issues the past two years.
After going 1-10 to start 2020, Davis put up a .303/.422/.472 line in his next 109 PA. Then he was drilled in the hip by Aroldis Chapman. In his final 106 PA, Davis had a .701 OPS. Then in 2021, he had a 1.109 OPS before going on the IL for the second time. In his final 157 PA, Davis had just an .091 ISO. Much like we saw Nimmo struggle with power – .092 ISO in his first 183 PA after returning from the IL – from his finger injury, Davis had an identical tough time delivering extra-base hits.
Nimmo isn’t known for his power, yet he had a .220 ISO in 2018 and a .204 ISO in 2020. After his struggles in the category upon his return, Nimmo posted a .243 ISO in September. A small sample? Perhaps. But if Nimmo was able to return to his previous marks, there’s a reason to believe that Davis can, too.
Since joining the Mets in 2019, Davis has a .288/.373/.472 line in 893 PA. That’s a .184 ISO, one that’s being dragged down a bit by what happened at the end of last year. Regardless, you look to find playing time for healthy guys with an .875 OPS. For what it’s worth, McNeil has a lifetime .824 OPS and Escobar has a lifetime .745 OPS and a .780 mark since 2019.
So, there’s reason to believe that Davis is the best hitter of the three. There’s also reason to believe he’s the worst fielder of the bunch. How do you get him playing time? It’s easier said than done and no one should envy the new manager with this situation to handle. Perhaps we can start with a Davis-McNeil platoon, with Escobar switching between second and third base to make it work.
One of the things that few people discuss is that McNeil had just a .630 OPS versus LHP in 2021. He went from an .825 OPS versus southpaws in 2019 to a .747 mark in .2020 to .630 last year. But if you think McNeil was bad against LHP, don’t check his numbers on the road. Using the same three-year look as we just did versus lefties, here’s how McNeil has performed in road parks — .951 to .738 to .566
So, there are opportunities to get Davis’ bat in the lineup for someone willing to be creative. And, we’ve only been looking at this thru a Davis/McNeil lens. There’s no guarantee that Escobar is going to be better than both of those players. My belief is that the idea that a player can’t play in New York is way overblown. But playing in Citi Field, which no one considers a great park for hitting, can’t be so easily dismissed. Let’s see how Escobar does overall, with an emphasis of how he does at Citi. His tiny, tiny sample so far is not good. Escobar is 4-36 with a .330 OPS in 37 PA at Citi Field.
One of the potential outcomes is that while trying to ensure that neither Davis nor Smith is guaranteed a starting job in 2022, that they prove to be the best guys for the jobs. It’s not my intention to be down on Escobar. He probably has the highest floor of the three players under consideration for the 2B and 3B jobs here. At the same time, he probably has the lowest ceiling. Escobar doesn’t have anything in his career to compare to what Davis (.895 OPS) and McNeil (.916) did in 2019 and he’s older than both of those guys.
Finally, it’s going to be an interesting roster makeup should the Mets keep Cano and not trade some other pieces they currently have. Assuming a 13/13 pitcher/hitter split, the Mets are looking at carrying three reserve infielders and just one reserve outfielder. And that reserve outfielder would be Dominic Smith. Teams usually carry two reserve infielders – once who can play the corner infield positions and one who can play the middle two spots. But Cano can’t play shortstop, which necessitates carrying Luis Guillorme, too. That outfield situation is not awful, as all three presumed starters can play CF. But it’s another reason to ditch Cano, to have a better-balanced bench.
JD doesn’t fit in a starter at 3B or outfield because he is a defensive liability. His best position is DH and he would the RHB in an platoon sharing it with Cano/Smith.
If are isn’t a DH then the initial plan to be for him and McNeil to platoon and be the caddy is give Escobar a rest.
Let’s face it, the roster still need to adjusted by a trade. JD by being a RHB and a good hitter should tried to be kept. He would also be a fallback if McNeil doesn’t bounce back. McNeil should tried to be kept because of his versatility and he is the preferable 2B instead of Cano. McNeil probably has the most trade value. Cano, has a no trade clause and doesn’t have trade value. Smith doesn’t fit in with the present roster and is likely candidate for a trade but his trade value has diminished. I hope Eppler can sort this out by the start of spring training.
I agree with you Metsense. Davis would be a good DH. Cano, well he is a problem. Maybe we could trade him to another team who has an equal problem for an outfielder. I dont see how Smith fits on this team. I bet he is the first to go. Maybe we could get a good young bullpen arm for him. Tampa always has good young arms. Who knows. There will be more roster activity, once this lockout is over. If it drags out before it is settled, a lot of players will be motivated to sign quickly.
Experience shows that JD does not hit well as a spot player (like many players). So if he is not going to play regularly, his value diminishes, and I cannot see him playing regularly on the Mets. That said, there are AL teams that would kill to have his good bat as its DH. I do believe he will perform, but he needs 400+ ABs to do it.
Infielders: Lindor, Alonso, Escobar, McNeil, Guillorme, _________ . Forget Cano… he is an albatross… pay him and kick him out the door. Trade JD.
Outfielders: Marte, Nimmo, Canha, (McNeil) __________ . Ideally, trade Smith, sign Schwarber.
Davis didn’t get the chance to play a lot before he joined the Mets. Once on the Mets he’s done just fine aside from injuries. I don’t see the proof to claim that Davis couldn’t be very valuable in a 300-PA role, assuming he’s healthy. Even with being banged up, he was quite productive with the Mets the past two years in 229 PA and 211 PA seasons.
As I remember it, Schwarber is a terrible fielder. Signing him only makes sense if he is going to be a DH, but Davis is plenty good as a hitter and will likely cost a lot less than Schwarber. I’ve consistently though JD should be our DH, but if the NL isn’t going to adopt the DH, then it’s only fair to trade him to the AL.
We were all enthralled with Davis’ bat when he got here and there is still a place for him on our roster. Escobar provides a steadier glove at third and has some pop. In an infrequent basis we can live with Davis’ glove, but not for 300 ABs as a fielder Hoping that Baty and Vientos continue to develop and are ready in the next few years. Same for Mauricio unless he goes in a trade since he will be blocked at SS past his prime. Cano is a dilemma. We don’t want him, but it’s too much money to just make him go away. I do see him as our DH if can play. Even a billionaire doesn’t just throw $40 million away. If he’s then maybe eat $12-$15 million and he becomes a bargain for another team to take a risk on. Can’t wait for spring training.
Schwarber is probably no worse a fielder than Dom or JD in left field. Given that he could hit 40HRs, and better yet, won’t hit any against the Mets, I think it’s worth considering. Otherwise, he goes to the Phillies, and he costs the Mets 2 or 3 of the 19 games they play…
Would you rather have Dom or Scwarber as the lefty hitting DH.?
DH vs LHP. Late game PH vs LHP. Occasional DH vs RHP. Relief pitcher in blowout games to save pen arms.
My feeling is that they’ll shop around for a real 2B who can field the position. Also, I personally believe the Lindor-McNeil rift is real.
I love Jeff’s bat and versatility. Like him in the outfield. Maybe he sticks. But my take on the day of ratcoon was that he was a dead man walking. We’ll see. Can probably get something for him in a deal.
I have always loved JD’s bat.
I don’t think Dom Smith has any use to the Mets at all. I can’t imagine a team in baseball that would want him as their everyday 1B. Maybe he had a hurt wrist all 2021 and nothing was real. It’s possible. I thought he looked fat and sleepy. Time for a new apnea machine!
Lastly, I don’t believe in the full-time DH unless you’ve got an absolute stud who can’t field at all. The days of Steve Balboni are long gone. Ideally, it’s a place where you can rotate a few different guys. Spot players a rest and give the manager maximum flexibility. Davis possibly fits into that role. Next year — fingers crossed — Alvarez comes up as a catcher and DH’s a lot. Slowly ease him into the defensive position.
All that said, I felt it was time to back up the truck on this team. Time for Conforto, Smith, Davis, McNeil to go. The soft core. In isolation, you can make the argument to keep any one of them. Or all of them. But this team was broken last season, none of them thrived; let’s try something new. We’ll see a wave of trades when this season finally gets started . . . in June.
Glad to see Nimmo in LF. Imagine the defensive upgrade on that. Smith was horrendous out there — total butcher, unfit for the outfield — and then you go to a plus-LF defensively. It’s a big difference. Our pitchers will like that.
JimmyP
I couldn’t agree more on every single point.
I also agree completely, Jimmy and Chris.
Dom Smith had the slimmest of offensive numbers, in two shortened seasons. But if he can show he can hit adequately with some power, which we know he has, he can be a decent backup on many teams. I agree his usefulness to the Mets is spent.
JDDavis, on the other hand, has major appeal for many AL teams. I still believe he can play the OF with less liability than the IF. I thought he was decent in LF, his only drawback being speed to cover ground. Maybe he belongs at Fenway.
McNeil still holds value as a Met. He can be a solid utility player, and a nice contributor off the bench. If he figures out his identity at the plate, learns to hit to all fields and gives up the homerun dreams, he can stay in the game a few more years. Somebody will always take a chance on a .260 hitter who has the potential to hit better.
Conforto is gone. All the best, Michael.