A New Top 10 Prospect
The Mets and their new GM have been very busy over the last couple of days and the new additions of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar stole the headlines but the acquisition of Nick Plummer should not be overlooked. The former first round draft pick (23rd overall) of the St. Louis Cardinals has not had an easy go of it since signing in 2015. He lost his 2016 season to injury and his 2020 season to Covid leaving the Cardinals with the tough call of cutting ties with him instead of protecting his contract. Looking at his .688 OPS from Low A and dismal .606 OPS from High A in 2018 and 2019 it’s easy to see why.
What makes the Cardinals’ move intriguing is that Plummer’s 2021 was outstanding. He broke out with an .893 OPS in AA showing power, some speed and the ability to get on base. He then continued his trend by achieving a .895 OPS in a 27 game audition at the AAA level. The left-handed outfielder plays all three defensive outfield positions but likely grades as a slightly worse defender than Khalil Lee but has a more powerful upside on offense.
With Lee and Carlos Cortes slotted to begin their years in AAA the Mets will have some shuffling to do to get these prospects playing time at the appropriate level. There is a shot that Plummer will wind up in the majors but that would either speak to injuries or the Mets viewing him as a lower-ceiling player than anticipated. He currently slots in as the #10 prospect in the Met system underneath Khalil Lee and Alexander Ramirez.
The Minor League Impact
The Mets inked Marte to a four-year deal, Canha and Escobar to two-year deals and finalized a deal with Max Scherzer for $130 million. How do these moves affect the minor league prospects the Mets have at the top of their system, if at all?
Lee is now blocked – Marte is on the older side of one’s career and could eventually shift out of center but the Mets signed him to take over the position. The only prospect of note that would be affected by this signing is Lee who now doesn’t have his highest value position open to him. Lee could still reach the majors due to injury but lacks the power typical of a corner outfielder. Alexander Ramirez is not similarly blocked because he is likely four years away from his major league debut.
Brett Baty and Mark Vientos have some time – Both players might not need it but Escobar allows the Mets to pull J.D. Davis out of the starting third baseman position right away. If Baty and/or Vientos prove ready for the majors Escobar can shift to second base as needed. The person most affected by this signing is former prospect Jeff McNeil who would need to outplay Escobar offensively to hold his spot on the roster.
Ronny Mauricio shifts to second base – Mauricio is a shortstop but will not unseat Francisco Lindor and his massive contract. Mauricio is equally blocked at third by either Baty or Vientos, once they get promoted. Mauricio’s path to the majors now appears to rest with him becoming the future second baseman once McNeil and Escobar are off the team. While the former could bounce back and convince the Mets to re-sign and retain him long term, the overall salary explosion makes keeping players like Nimmo or McNeil quite difficult to countenance.
The pressure on Matt Allan and J.T. Ginn is on – The Mets have a delightful two-headed monster at the top of their rotation for at least two seasons. With five rotation slots available the Mets will start to find vacancies in 2024 and have little money to afford replacements. This will put the focus onto internal options and, unfortunately, Thomas Szapucki and David Peterson don’t appear to be sure-fire candidates. The pressure to have one or both of these players ready and able to step into the front-end of a rotation is going to be crucial.
For Francisco Alvarez, nothing changes – The Mets #1 prospect has little changed by these events. As a catching prospect he has to continue to hit as he proceeds through the majors and will unseat James McCann as soon as he is ready.
What Comes Next?
Some people believe the Mets still need to add more thump to their lineup, with Dominic Smith, Robinson Cano and Davis set to split time as the DH. A left-handed power bat would be quite useful in the Met lineup and there is a perfect DH candidate available in Kyle Schwarber but the Mets have more obvious needs in the rotation and bullpen that should supersede that.
With Aaron Loup and Rich Hill both not returning in 2022 the Mets need to add a quality reliever (probably a lefty) and a back-of-rotation starter who might be serviceable in the bullpen. The main internal options for this roles would be Szapucki who currently ranks as the 11th best overall prospects in the Met system. Sadly, their 2021 seasons don’t offer much hope for immediate major league success.
The Mets rotation currently has four bonafide major league starters in Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker. The depth chart for the 5th starter position includes a cavalcade of prospects, former prospects and depth pieces including: Tylor Megill, Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Trevor Williams, Jordan Yamamoto, Yennsy Diaz, Harol Gonzalez, Josh Walker and Szapucki. This considerable depth is great but the Mets are looking to add one more veteran starter to make it less of a question mark (or at least a different type of question mark). The Mets are kicking the tires on Yusei Kikuchi and could consider a player like Johnny Cueto to fill this role.
The bullpen is harder to figure as there are a lot of players out there but few options present themselves as a surefire win if the Mets sign them. The most obvious choices seem to be Andrew Chafin, Joe Kelly and Collin McHugh. One player I’d love the Mets to offer a minor league contract to is Trevor Megill (Tylor’s brother) who is coming off a dismal year with the Cubs. The minor league numbers are still pretty strong and he could potentially turn things around with some familial support.
The last item is adding an additional superstar caliber player like Kris Bryant. The Mets payroll for 2021 is a bit staggering and it seems unrealistic to imagine that the team has anything left to woo a big-ticket player like Bryant. Add, once again, that he is a right-handed bat and that the Mets have both Baty and Vientos in the wings and it seems like an absurd thing to ask the team to pursue.
You left out as depth pieces Adam Oller and maybe Jose Butto or even Ginn later in 2022.
Oller and Butto are options for 2022 but Ginn isn’t touching the majors that soon.
I’m penciling Jeff McNeil as a very useful utility piece on the team because he can play several positions adequately and offers more upside if he can regain his hitting stroke. Cano, Dom, and JD Davis are all square pegs not fitting into the Mets’ round holes. At least one of them has to go (Cano!). JD would be a fine DH, but he may be even more valuable to another team, thus a valuable trade chip. Dom has much to prove, but his 1B defensive skills make him marginally valuable as trade material. Cano is just dog poo.
Until the Mets figure out this logjam in the roster, they will have trouble sorting out the finances and needs for the next two seasons, including some bullpen additions for upgrade.
Great job, Dave.
A few comments:
* I think the Mets really need a high-quality #4 outfielder. Honestly, I thought Canha could be that guy. A 400-plus AB player. We know Nimmo’s injury history. The #4 is going to play a lot. I don’t see Lee “blocked” at all, beyond his own pitch-recognition limitations. Glad they were able to pick up Plummer.
* On that note, I think we *should* know that Jeff McNeil isn’t much of a 2B — and that he’s not good fit w/ Lindor as a keystone partner. However, I’ve always liked him in the OF. A good 4th, for sure. However, I think he’s gone. Should be able to get something good in return.
* On Alvarez, my take is he looks like a stone-cold hitter — MLB ready soon — but that the defense will take more time to develop. If the DH is around (I sure hope so!), then I see him DH’ing frequently while slowly getting time behind the plate. McCann will start the majority of games in 2022 and 2023.
* I like Vientos and I like his approach, too. I think he could help the Mets in 2022. Word is the defense isn’t great, however. He really had an impressive season last year and the team has been slow to promote him. It’s not a foregone conclusion, to me at least, that Baty is the better player.
Hey Jimmy,
Thanks for reading.
I keep seeing people placing trade value on Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith but not carrying the value of them on the Mets. Right now, I don’t think Davis or Smith have any trade value and that McNeil’s value would only net a Tier 2 or Tier 3 prospect. The Mets best value comes from playing these guys and hoping for some lightning in a bottle.
I do think the plan with McNeil is to have him as a Util guy who can swing into the outfield but his 2022 season is going to be gauged by his hitting. If he becomes the “Flying Squirrel” we remember then his value returns.
I’ve seen Alvarez behind the plate a few times now and I think he’s got the defensive chops to be an everyday catcher. The rogue scout who compared him to Yadier Molina was way off base but he’s not Mike Piazza back their either. I am hoping his bat forces the Mets to act sooner than later.
Both Baty and Vientos have dings on their defense (which is part of my humor on Kris Bryant). If the Mets signed Bryant, he’s the top 3B long after Baty or Vientos reach the majors but, unlike them, he has more defensive versatility. I think Vientos looked better than Baty in the outfield (but take that with a grain of salt.)
I have always liked Carrasco and I am willing to give him more benefit of the doubt when it comes to his 2021 season being a fluke.
On Smith, Davis, McNeil.
Sometimes things just have to change.
I think it’s a mistake — forgive me — to look at these things from a strictly “value” POV. Loosely translated, that would suggest that a team should never sell low. But what then? Take Smith for example. You bring back the guy who can’t play in the outfield — at all — and doesn’t hit for much. He’s good at 1B, but we’ve already got one of those guys. A LH bat off the bench? Not in today’s world of 13-man pitching staffs. The days of Danny Heep and Matt Franco are over. So what does another year of Dom Smith give you? Defensively, he’s a zero. There’s no use for him. Does that mean he’ll never hit? No, I mean, he totally might. And it will be somewhere else. And that’s okay. You don’t need to “win” ever transaction; you need to make the best decisions you can at the time, and try to build a winner. The Mets need to put the best, most productive roster in place. I can’t imagine a team giving us much for Smith, but maybe an interesting arm in the low minors will help down the road. It’s not nothing. And what if we keep him and he sucks again (this was a -0.7 WAR player)? Then you wasted a valuable roster slot and failed to help the team.
I like JD, I do. In fact, I probably like him a good deal more than most. But this team needs to change. You can’t just bring back all the mellow, laidback guys from last season. Depending on what happens at 2B, he might stick. I’d love to see him DH and PH help out at 3B here and there. But, also, maybe it’s time for the NY Mets to move on from guys who can’t field a lick? Maybe his fate ties into Robinson Cano.
On Jeff: I think he has more trade value than you suggest. Hell, I still think he could hit .320 and play 3-4 positions without getting stressed about it. I kind of love him. Chris Taylor isn’t a bad comp, and the Dodgers just went 4/$60 for him. I also think Jeff is probably annoying as hell to be around. The childish tantrums. My strong vibe is he’s gone and I think he knows he’s gone, too. The worst thing that ever happened to him was Francisco Lindor arrived on the scene. You can’t invest $341 MILLION in a guy and saddle him with a partner he loathes. Time in the outfield is his best hope. Another guy who has traditionally had a problem staying healthy.
To me, Smith MUST go. With Davis or McNeil (by far the most useful), it depends on the other moves in the big finger-puzzle, lot of pieces sliding around. Keep one, maybe. Not both.
Very insightful and well worded. Thanks for sharing.
Oh, I forget to say:
I don’t know what we’ve got with Carrasco. But at this point, I’m not ready to use the word “bonafide.”
He might be toast.
I’m hoping not.
Right now, the Mets roster has McNeil for 2B, Cano/Davis for DH and Nido, Smith and Guillorme on the bench. That is 13 position players so Lee and Plummer are blocked so they would start at AAA but deserving to be a callup if an outfielder is injured. Vientos, Batty and Cortes haven’t had enough experience AAA and should start at that level but as the year progresses they will be in the mix. It is nice to have five minor league that are successful on the minors and eventually could be called upon.
Davis, McNeil and Smith all have reduced value coming off down years (damn it, Hugh Quattlebaum!). They are all early arb and still cheap. Unless someone makes a great offer I’d rather bring them back as rotation players or depth pieces than dump them for marginal prospects. I think McNeil is our second baseman. Depending on what other pieces we bring in, I’d consider keeping at least one of Dom and JD, especially if there’s a DH. Dom can be the backup at first and the 4th OF. Since the three projected starters can all play all three spots, the 4th OF only needs to be able to play left. Dom is a great clubhouse guy and I don’t like the idea of writing a homegrown player off based on one down year. At a minimum I’d like to hang on to him for the first half and let him rebuild some value. Plenty of teams need first baseman and only two will wind up with Freeman or Rizzo. JD can hit. It seems he had a down year due to a wrist injury. I think he’d make a fine DH. Cano I have no use for.
David:
I noticed that Matt Allan has no minor league stats for 2020/2021, and has only 10.1 innings professionally, all in 2019. Is this correct?
There was no 2020 Minor League Season because of Covid and he needed Tommy John surgery and lost his 2021 season.
The 10.1 innings does not include the 5 scoreless he threw in the playoffs for Brooklyn in 2019.
David,
Great write up. A few minor comments –
– Marte may not be their best defensive CF, and even if he is now, given his age he likely won’t be going forward. So, I don’t see that he is blocking Lee. Lee had a very impressive AAA season, especially showing great mental fortitude after being forced prematurely into big league action and having a very rough time at the plate.
– Regarding Mauricio, no one but Lindor is blocking him. Baty and Vientos had very impressive years, but there is strong competition here to see who wins what spot or spots on the MLB roster. This is a very good thing…hopefully these guys will continue to develop and impress.
– nice idea signing Trevor Megill to a minor league deal…assuming he gets along with his brother…not always a given lol
–
Good article David*, and an excellent response/analysis by JimmyP in his multiple responses. At first I thought that McNeil may “win” the 2B job is spring training, but if the chemistry between him and Lindor is toxic, and if our beloved ‘flying squirrel’ has a truly rabid clubhouse personality; then yeah, he’s gone. Too bad though, he would be a quality 4th OF if his hitting does return.
* Except for labeling Carrasco as a sure thing for the rotation.