What if the Mets had made no external moves over the past few years, that means no trades, no free-agent signings, but also would mean retention of their own free agents. This obviously is not practical, but it might be interesting to see what the roster would look like going into 2022, if the Mets had stood pat. For the time frame, we’ll go back to October of 2018 when Brodie Van Wagenen was hired as GM of the Mets. We’ll break down the stand-pat roster by position.
Catcher…Instead of James McCann, the presumptive starter would be Travis d’Arnaud, inexplicably released by the Mets at the start of the 2019 season. He went on to have a very good 2019 with Tampa, then an even better 2020 with the Braves as he sported an OPS of .919 in the shortened season. He was hurt much of last year, but came on in the WS to hit .292 and slug .583 as the Braves went on to triumph. d’Arnaud may not be a fantastic defensive catcher, he does not throw out many base stealers,but he does frame pretty well. All and all he is an upgrade over McCann.
First base…Not much to say here, Pete Alonso is the incumbent first sacker, and the dangerous power hitter would have the same status on the stand-pat team.
Second base…After his first three MLB seasons were very good for the Mets, 2021 was a bad one for the versatile Jeff McNeill. Second base is probably his best position, and hopefully he can regain his stroke in 2022. Of course, on this roster there is no Robinson Cano to even be in the conversation, since the trade with Seattle never would have occurred.
Shortstop… There is no Francisco Lindor on the stand-pat Mets, since the big trade with Cleveland never would have happened. Instead, Amed Rosario, who was part of that deal, would be the likely 2022 shortstop for the Mets. The Indians briefly experimented with Rosario in center field, but he mostly played short last year. In 141 games he had a slash line of .282/.321/.409. He also improved tremendously in his base running, he was a perfect 13 for 13 in steals. His defense at short was shaky when he was a Met, and he did have a -8 DRS last year. His UZR was good at 1.7. Rosario is not as good as Lindor, but he does have upside and he is younger and considerably cheaper than Lindor.
Third base…Third is an unsettled position on the real Mets and would be on this alternative team. There would be no J.D. Davis to compete since the trade with Houston would not have taken place. This may not be ideal, but perhaps Luis Guillorme could win a starting spot at third. He is an excellent fielder, and a pesky hitter. He may not have much power but he had an OBP of .374 in an injury-plagued 2021.
Right field…In this scenario we will be welcoming back Michael Conforto, coming off his underperforming 2021. He’s had some very good years in the past, and he did improve quite a bit in the latter part of 2021. He had an OPS of .876 in August and .790 in September/October. Shoulder woes may have impacted his first part of 2021.
Center field…Brandon Nimmo was excellent in 2021, and will be penciled to start on this team. On the real Mets, Nimmo may well be in a corner outfield spot with free-agent acquisition Starling Marte in center,
Left field..One of the Mets’ best prospects in recent years, Jarred Kelenic, was shipped to Seattle in 2018. The 22 year old started last year with the Mariners and struggled, and was sent back to the minors. For the last month of 2021 Kelenic showed his promise, he slugged .552 with six homers for September/October. He appears to have a very bright future in the majors.
Backup catcher..Kevin Plawecki played for Boston in 2021, and posted .737 OPS.
Backup infielders…Andres Gimenez finished 7th in Rookie of the Year voting in 2020, but was then sent to the Indians in the Cano deal. He regressed with the bat last year, but he is still young and has potential. He is a good defender at second, short and third with a DRS of +4, and he was 11 for 11 in stolen bases for Cleveland. Wilmer Flores was non-tendered after 2018. He played with the Western Division champs the Giants last year as a utility man, and he ended up getting into 139 games and put up a line of .262/.335/.447. Good offense for a backup, with subpar infield defense. Dominic Smith of course would be a backup at first and possibly left field.
Backup outfielder…Juan Lagares was released by the Mets after 2020. He played 112 games for the Angels with a low .638 OPS. The one-time Gold Glover can play all the outfield positions, and is serviceable as a fourth outfielder.
Starting pitching.. No Max Scherzer in this rotation, but it looks awfully good. Of course Jacob deGrom will be the number one starter. Zack Wheeler wanted to remain with the Mets after 2019, but the Mets showed little interest and Wheeler went to Philly. In 2021 he was 14-10 with a 2.78 ERA in 32 starts with a 1.008 WHIP. He led the leagues in K’s with 247 and finished second in the CY Young vote.
Chris Flexen pitched a couple of years for the Mets, then he was released in 2019. He caught on with the Mariners last year and has 31 starts with a 14-6 record and 3.61 ERA. Steven Matz had a good year for Toronto in 2021, he started 29 games and posted a 14-7 record with a decent ERA of 3.82. In addition Noah Syndergaard would still be a Met, and we’ll throw in a 6th starter since there are some injury concerns. Justin Dunn started 11 games for Seattle last year and also pitched some relief, with a 3.75 ERA and a 1-3 record.
The relief corps will be thin for this roster, with no Edwin Diaz. Seth Lugo would return, as would Drew Smith with his 2.40 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in 41 IP. Paul Sewald had a great year in relief for the Mariners, in 62 games he had a 10-3 record with 11 saves and a 2.40 ERA.
Possible starters like David Peterson and or Tylor Megill could be used in relief in this scenario, as well as retreads like Robert Gsellman and Corey Oswalt.
It’s hard to say if this is a better roster than the one the Mets have assembled for this year, but it would be younger and cheaper with some superstar upside potential in Kelenic.
While I wouldn’t move Nimmo off CF for Marte, I would think about it for the 22-year-old Kelenic. Last year, Kelenic was dismal in CF in about half a season’s worth of innings. It’s possible he really is that bad in center. But defense is a young man’s game, which makes me hesitate moving Kelenic to a corner.
Thanks, I always enjoy articles like this.
I 2nd the comment of this being an excellent and fun read.
Who was it that said that…”the best trades are sometimes the ones you don’t make”?
You jarred my curiosity Footballhead, and I looked it up. The quote is attributed to Bill Veeck, owner of the Indians at the time.
I still boil on the Kelenic trade, about the same anger as Rusty Staub going to Detroit for Lolich.
John, Mets fans always look at these types of articles with heart warming nostalgia, but the truth is that they aren’t very unrealistic. I have always been one to want our younger players to have a clear road to playing time. Maybe not the starting job per se, but playing time. However, the Mets fan is impatient and impatient front offices make the stupid short sighted moves we have seen lately.
I’ll throw the Flexen waiver aside for now, because I always felt he didn’t get a real chance but was just yo-yo’d up and down. But, Rosario was a young player that came up in Alderson’s minor league system. He was fundamentally flawed and had no clue about base running or even situational hitting (none of the Mets do, how coincidental…). It was obvious he needed more time to figure things out.
Two years ago, a certain second year outfielder on the Pirates hit .189, had an OPS of .632 and a RC+ of merely 72 over a full season’s atbats. What if he was a Met? I’m sure the fans would be patient with a young player right? Sure, BVW and Alderson would be patient and not sign any type of free agent to replace him, right? Ha! WFAN and all the blogs would be blown up to get him in the minors or just burn him to a stake and sign George Springer or another big name outfielder. The player I’m referring to is Bryan Reynolds, the all star centerfielder that last year had a 142 RC+, hit .302 and an OPS of .912. My point is that we shouldn’t be so quick to discard our talent after a bad year. Smith was hurt, we know it. Davis was hurt, we know it. McNeil was healthy, but he had a bad year after three straight all-star type years. Only in Metsville is it forgotten that Alderson screwed this team up but canning the successful hitting coach of two years in a month and bringing in his own coach that had never had success before and worked to change the Mets approach mid year.
Escobar > Guillorme, Lindor > Rosario, Marte > Kelenic, Scherzer > Wheeler, Diaz > Lugo are all better and Nimmo, McNeil and Alonso are returning. McCann had a off year but d’Ardaud doesn’t stay on the field. Conforto had a off year but Canha is the solid replacement. Cohen is a better owner than the Wilpons and the money isn’t a concern. Standing pat would been be a mistake because they weren’t a competitive team.
There’s a pretty funky, unique baseball book by Craig Robinson, FLIP FLOP FLY BALL. It’s all infographics. There’s one about WS winners, “How the Players Were Acquired.”
Lot of trades & free agents.
The Wilpons weren’t going to spend and BVW was forced to shift prospects to acquire talent (since “winning” was part of the job description).
I’m tired of the arguments for tanking.
Winning isn’t easy. It requires risk and, often, decisions that emphasize short-term over long-term values. Sometimes things work out; sometimes they don’t.
I like it when the Mets try to win.
Bingo. Even teams like the Rays and As acquire some key components via trade and, believe it or not, free agency. And, as stated, even the best organizations “win some and lose some”. But I think we all can agree that the key is to have a good crop of prospects at all times. Paul DePodesta once referred to it as “critical mass”. That requires good drafting, good prospect development, and the ability to avoid over depleting future resources for current needs. Eppler has referred to this multiple times already, say more or less sacrificing future World Series probabilities or something similar…the current “suit talk”.
As is the case in life, Uncle Stevie’s money almost certainly can’t buy happiness, but it can certainly avoid lots of unhappiness, in this case in the form of bleeding the system dry to “pretend” on competing in the near term. They had a little blip with Crow-Armstrong, but all in all I am getting the feeling that they get it. We’ll see if they have the discipline whenever a labor agreement is reached…meaning keeping those two high draft picks, as well as their key prospects Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos, Allan, Ginn, showing patience, and providing a path to the big leagues. There are enough “stars” to carry the weight and find spots for the ones in this group that earn them, even on a World Series contender.
I saw on another site a comment from someone regarding Guillorme. He said he would be fine with trading McNeil and keeping Guillorme to play 2B. While I had never considered those two things together, they made a lot of sense with me. Taken side-by-side, how would Guillorme and McNeil stack up as purely 2B options?
Over the course of 500 ABs and similar good health, I might expect Guillorme to actually prove better. Both are capable of hitting close to .300. McNeil might have more HR power, but Guillorme may have fewer K’s, thus leading to more production. Guillorme would see more pitches, which could, over a season, again, prove more productive against opponents, and given his propensity to hit to left field, could pose more problems for teams when runners are on base.
Defensively, no contest. If Luis could manage to not get bored, he would considerably tighten the infield. Also, his ability to play 3B and SS makes him even more flexible than the very flexible McNeil. In fact, we all know that Luis could play LF and would thereby become the Mets’ Chris Taylor.
The verdict, and I know this may shock some, trade McNeil to any of the teams that would value him and ultimately risk losing very little. Certainly certain remaining players in the Mets’ dugout would quietly rejoice. In return the Mets might pick up a quality reliever or a farm prospect. McNeil? If he finds his stroke and hits .320 (highly unlikely to me), good for him.