Is Buck Showalter the right man for the job?

Lots of electrons have been spilt and will continue to be spilled over the Mets hiring of Buck Showalter as the New York Mets manager. Many believe he has the experience, the demeanor, and the relationships to take this Mets collection of players to the playoffs again. Most importantly, he appears to be the specific choice of owner Steven Cohen.

The darkest shadow looming over Showalter would be the changing game and whether he can handle it. People will point to Manny Machado’s endorsement, and perhaps that relationship will help managing Francisco Lindor. The largest gap is Showalter’s relationship with Machado begin when Machado was a teen, making his way into and through MLB. Lindor is an established star doing it his way already. The situations are not the same.  How he manages the relationships with the players will be key, as well as how he manages through the changes that come with the new collective bargaining agreement.

The dugout had some issues in 2021, and many batters slumped at the same time, and the Mets plan was to let the players work themselves out of it. That approach didn’t work so if it starts that way again in 2022, Showalter will need to respond more successfully if that is possible. As for the in-fighting, there is little doubt that Showalter will put the kibosh on any dissension.

He has a very “players are people too” approach, which the players will like although the jury is out on whether that wins more games.  Four years ago, Showalter’s Orioles threatened the 1962 Mets haplessness. Showalter was not doing it differently, so it is not apparent his player treatment is a true difference maker, but it can make losing more tolerable.

The second aspect will be how he chooses to use the analytics. He said in an interview in 2018 that he likes the analytics to verify what he feels in his gut. But he also said, “explain to me what it tells me” (good), “Now tell me what it doesn’t tell me” (bad).  He seems to be on board with the analytics approach, but the data in 2022 is different from 2018 – spin rates, etc. He does understand these categories – he largely just used different ways to express them.  In his first interview as the Mets manager, he indicated he was always up for more information and would always work to understand how they would be applied. He has several interviews around analytics and his general approach, and it always indicates he will go with the best argument, which sometimes will mean not going with the percentages, and going with his gut.

One area the Mets have struggled with for many years is poor pitching staff management. Showalter has routinely used slightly fewer pitchers than league average, so he doesn’t have the 1uickest hook.  He infamously sat on Zach Britton in 2016, watching the Orioles dream season end in a flurry of “WTH!?” articles. He was also the manager that had done the same 20 years earlier in the amazing Yankees-Mariners playoffs. The general explanation is Britton was going to pitch with the lead. This is a key area where the analytics, dogma, and his gut diverge. Will Showalter keep Edwin Diaz in the bullpen at a critical moment?

Those few incidents aside, Showalter’s history looks fairly robust with respect to getting good bullpen performance from the arms out there. Over the last decade or so, poor bullpen management has cost the Mets many games, and many key games, including the 2015 World Series. This does look to be an area Showalter will improve the Mets – at least up until elimination time.

Showalter also intentionally walked Barry Bonds with the bases loaded. Clearly one of the gutsiest moves in the era of televised baseball.

All in all, Showalter has a very good attitude about players, a good track record with a key area of Mets weakness, and at worst, a lukewarm view on the application of analytics. If Showalter can continue to adapt to the changes in the game, he is going to be a good manager for about 4-5 years. Most importantly, the Yankees and the Diamondbacks won the World Series the year after Showalter left, so the Mets have that going for them.