Tylor Megill and assorted Mets pitchers to make at least 18 starts in a season

It’s been an interesting ride so far for Tylor Megill. He went from being a mid-round draft pick to a sleeper prospect to making 18 starts for the Mets last season despite pitching only one game above A-ball prior to 2021. He had some good moments for the Mets last year but the biggest thing Megill gave the club was someone who took the ball every five days. In a season where everyone and their brother got hurt, Megill gave the club some necessary stability.

Now Megill finds himself in an odd place. Despite being in the rotation for over half the year, it seems very likely that the Mets will look to find someone to take his place, whether that be an internal candidate like David Peterson or Trevor Williams, or an external candidate like Carlos Rodon. It’s one thing to have 18 starts for a team. It’s another thing when you put up an 89 OPS+. Misplaced or not, the Mets likely view themselves as a playoff club. And it’s not a good thing to plan on 30-plus starts from a guy who was considerably below average a year ago if you expect to make the postseason.

The Mets should be hoping for Megill to make fewer than half the starts he did in 2021 in the upcoming season. But how likely is that? The Mets have had 254 seasons from pitchers with at least 18 starts. Obviously, some of the biggest names in club history can be found multiple times on this list. But we’re not so much interested in Tom Seaver and his 11 times reaching this level of starts. Instead, who are the guys who made this list one year and didn’t make it the next season?

There are plenty of guys who failed to make it in back-to-back years. Generally, these fall into three categories. Some guys moved on – whether that meant they retired or were traded or became free agents. Others got hurt and maybe returned to the rotation in a subsequent year. Finally, the other big group were people who stayed with the club but spent a lot of time in the bullpen, whether as swing men or as full-time relievers.

Let’s look at some names that stood out, from these categories and an exception or two.

Mike Torrez made 34 starts for the 1983 Mets. He wasn’t very good but then again, neither was the ’83 club. Torrez began ’84 in the rotation and made eight starts. However, he was even worse than he was in ’83, as he notched just one Quality Start. He was sent to the bullpen, where he made just one appearance before being released. Torrez was 37 in ’84, a fine pitcher who was just at the end of the line. He was hardly a comp for Megill, who was a rookie in 2021.

Dave Mlicki made 25 starts for the 1995 Mets at the age of 27. He pitched okay, posting a 95 ERA+. But the following year, Mlicki was essentially a reliever, as 49 of his 51 outings came out of the pen. This was the time of Generation K and in 1996, Paul Wilson and Jason Isringhausen combined for 53 starts, after making just 14 the previous season. In 1997, injuries to the highly-touted youngsters opened up rotation spots and Mlicki made 32 starts. He was in the rotation again to start 1998 but was traded to the Dodgers after 10 starts in the Hideo Nomo deal.

If you ever read “The Great Amercan Baseball Card Flipping, Trading and Bubblegum Book” you know about Carl Willey. And you know he was from Cherryfield, Maine. The book talked about his hometown and the big sign they had in honor of their favorite son. But Willey made 28 starts for the 1963 Mets and pitched pretty well, too, as he posted a 112 ERA+. But the expansion Mets weren’t allowed to have good things back then and Willey suffered an injury right before the 1964 season started when a line drive to his face resulted in a broken jaw. Willey didn’t return until June and spent most of the year in the bullpen and also suffered other injuries along the way. Willey came back in 1965 but still had injury issues. His last game that season was a 9 IP, 1 ER effort against the Phillies. But Willey opted to retire rather than resume his baseball career.

After having 11 starts and 12 games finished for the 1978 Mets, Kevin Kobel made 27 starts and was solid, with a 104 ERA+ in 1979. But Mark Bomback and Ray Burris bumped him from the rotation in 1980. Yes, the magic was back. Kobel, at age 26, found himself in the pen, making just one start in 14 games before being traded for a PTBNL in mid-June. He never pitched in the majors again.

If you remember the 1975 season, that’s the year when the Mets desperately needed a fourth starter. The player who got the fourth-most starts that year was Randy Tate, who made 23 starts and was 5-13. In the offseason the Mets traded for Mickey Lolich and Tate went 7-14 for Tidewater. In 1977, the Mets sent Tate to A-ball. In 1978 he was in the Pirates’ system, his last year in pro ball at the age of 25.

Dick Selma, a high school teammate of Seaver, made 23 starts for the 1968 Mets. He had been on the club for parts of three previous seasons and was the hard-throwing phenom that Nolan Ryan was compared to in his early days. Allegedly, Gil Hodges told Selma that he was going to be in the 1969 rotation. Someone forgot to tell GM Johnny Murphy, who left Selma exposed in the Expansion Draft, where he was selected by the Padres. Selma made 28 starts and notched 12 wins in ’69, split between the Padres and Cubs. He appeared in four games for the Cubs against the Mets that year and went 0-3 with an 8.80 ERA.

Eric Hillman made 22 starts for the 1993 Mets and was solid, with a 101 ERA+. He began 1994 in the rotation but quickly pitched himself into a bullpen role. From there, he pitched himself into the minors, which might have been a blessing, as he was sent down before the strike that canceled the rest of the ’94 season. Hillman went 10-1 with Norfolk which was enough to get him a contract in Japan in 1995. He was terrific in his first two years with Chiba Lotte – the first year with Bobby Valentine as his manager – and he became one of the highest-paid players when he signed with Yomiuri. But a torn rotator cuff effectively ended his career shortly after signing.

Mike Bruhert could have been Mets royalty, as he was once married to Gil Hodges’ daughter. But the marriage didn’t last and neither did Bruhert’s MLB career. He made 22 starts for the 1978 Mets but posted just a 78 OPS+. He never pitched in the majors again.

Rick Aguilera made 20 starts for the 1986 Mets but was one of many pitchers who struggled with injuries the following season. Still, he made 17 starts and went 11-3. However, the injuries lingered into 1988 and teammates were dubious of how severe they actually were. In 1989, he appeared in 36 games for the Mets, all in relief. Aguilera had even worked himself into the mix for saves, notching seven before he was traded in the Frank Viola deal.

Ray Sadecki won 20 games as a 23 year old for the World Champion Cardinals in 1963. He was not able to duplicate that success going forward but it was still enough for the Giants to trade future Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda for him during the 1966 season. Sadecki put up two strong years in San Francisco but again fell on hard times in 1969 which prompted his trade to the Mets. The return this time was not so glamorous, as Sadecki netted the Giants just Jim Gosger and Bobby Heise. Sadecki made 19 starts in 1970 and 20 in 1971. But he also made 23 relief appearances in those two seasons. In 1972 32 of his 34 games were as a reliever. He pitched through the 1977 campaign but never made more than 11 starts in a year after ’71.

John Mitchell was a Red Sox farmhand when he was involved in a boating accident that killed two people. Mitchell survived by hanging onto a cooler for 20 hours after the boat capsized. He came to the Mets in the Bobby Ojeda-Calvin Schiraldi deal. Mitchell made 19 starts for the injury-ravaged 1987 Mets squad and pitched better than I remembered, as he notched a 93 ERA+. But it wasn’t enough to crack the rotation when everyone was healthy. Mitchell spent most of the next two seasons in the minors, before being dealt to the Orioles.

After an impressive Major League debut in 2016, where his surprising pitching helped the Mets make the playoffs, Lugo suffered an elbow injury in 2017. It was decided that it would be easier on his elbow to pitch as a starter when he returned, so Lugo made 18 starts that year. The next year he was in the bullpen and he’s become a mainstay there.

*****

It’s hard to say if any of these pitchers has a story comparable to what will happen with Megill. Certainly let’s hope that Tate, Bruhert or Mitchell will not be the career path that Megill follows.