Losing Aaron Loup to free agency leaves a big hole in the bullpen. Many will focus primarily on which hand he pitches with but the real issue is that he was dominating. In 125 PA when he did not have the platoon advantage, Loup limited opponents to a .211/.290/.257 line last year. And he had more PA without the platoon advantage than with it. Replacing that production is not going to be easy.
Everyone talks about making multiple additions to the bullpen once the lockout is over. Let’s take a look at who’s on the club right now.
Closer – Edwin Diaz
Setup – Trevor May, Seth Lugo, Miguel Castro, Drew Smith
Long – Trevor Williams
Other/Minors – David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Jordan Yamamoto, Jake Reed, Antonio Santos, Sean Reid-Foley, Yennsy Diaz.
That’s a baker’s dozen worth of candidates for the bullpen currently in the organization, with the first six likely to be on the Opening Day roster. It’s a reasonable guess that one of the first three guys from the “Other” category goes to Queens after Spring Training, just like it’s a reasonable assumption that the last two will open the year in the minors. But what about the other two guys?
We saw a tiny bit of Reed last year and we would have seen a little more if he didn’t go on the IL with forearm tightness. When we did see him, what we saw was a sidearmer who had good results in a tiny sample. He’s not overpowering but he has a sinker and a slider that he throws from the same arm angle that break in opposite directions, which can produce some ugly, ugly swings. In a way, he’s similar to former Met Jared Hughes. Unfortunately, the Mets got Hughes at the end of his career and fans didn’t see the best results. Reed turned 29 last September and should still be a useful piece.
If my comparison to Hughes scares you, know that Reed was someone that both the Rays and Dodgers picked up last year but had to set free due to 40-man roster issues. He also pitched in the majors with the Dodgers, albeit in another tiny sample. Combining his MLB work in 2021, Reed posted a 3.60 ERA with a 3.07 FIP and a 1.200 WHIP. It’s up for debate if he can get LHB out at a good clip but that’s true of most righty sidearmers. Another comparison made for Reed is to Darren O’Day, who last year was getting MLB hitters out at age 38.
The Mets claimed Santos off the waiver wire in late November, one of the first moves made with Billy Eppler as the GM. Unlike Reed, Santos has a good fastball, one that has ticked up since he moved to the pen. Santos throws a bunch of other pitches, too, but none of them really stand out. The hope is that the Mets can get him to focus on one main off-speed pitch and he becomes a good two-pitch reliever.
With an option available, Santos is likely in the Reid-Foley/Yennsy Diaz class. And while Reed can be sent to the minors, too, he seems ready to help the Mets immediately. The Mets could go with a pen comprised of the first six guys, Peterson and Reed and have a solid pen if the main guys pitch to their career numbers.
Of course, the Henny Penny crowd will be up in arms about Peterson being the only lefty. And there are a bunch of lefty relievers available in free agency, including a dozen or more with name value. Among them is former Met Brad Hand, who didn’t exactly overwhelm in 2021 but who was better with the Mets, as he posted a 2.70 ERA and a 3.40 FIP in 16 games with the club.
To me, the question is if the potential free agent reliever is better than Reed. The bar’s set at Reed and not Peterson with the belief that the Mets want a guy besides Williams who can start if need be, given the injury concerns around at least 40% – if not more – of the starting rotation. But that’s pure speculation on my part.
Of course, my bullpen wouldn’t have eight relievers in it, either. Instead, it would be four one-inning guys and three pitchers capable of going multi-innings twice a week. My opinion is that would lead to a more effective pen overall, with better rested guys if we moved away from the “short burst,” everyone pitches one inning and has to be available tomorrow model that almost every club uses today.
My expectation is the Mets carry an 8-man pen, with a lefty reliever not currently on the roster. My preference would be a 7-man pen, with Lugo, Peterson and Williams being the multi-inning guys. And if the gods smile upon us and let Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer be healthy and regularly put up starts of seven innings or more, you would transition to a 6-man pen.
If there are six games in a given week, either deGrom or Scherzer will start two of them. So, that’s three games where the pen will need to produce no more than six innings total. If the other three games need four innings each from the pen – that’s 18 innings for the week. Six relievers can cover 18 innings without much difficulty, especially if Lugo/Peterson/Williams all go for more than an inning at a time.
And even if the pen needed to give more innings, if the long man trio each pitched five innings a week (three in one appearance and two in the other) that’s 15 innings from three relievers. If the other three pitch every other day and give an inning each time – essentially what they do now – that’s 24 innings covered in a week.
There’s a worry how our long men in the bullpen will fare going multiple innings twice a week. But is it any worse than the worry of pitching Yennsy Diaz and his 5.40 ERA/1.480 WHIP and Reid-Foley with his 5.23 ERA/1.500 WHIP? Just like you’d replace that duo if they struggled, you’d replace any of the three long men if they struggled – with Megill and Yamamoto ready to step in if need be.
Just imagine the benefits of two extra position players. You could carry a third catcher and still have another player. You could have a speed/defense guy or a Rusty Staub-like pinch hitter. And if the weekly schedule had extra games – whether doubleheaders or no off days – you could swap out the third catcher or speed/defense guy and go with a seventh reliever for two weeks until things got back to normal.
At some point, a team is going to recognize the benefit of carrying multi-inning relievers and playing with an extended bench.
I like Miguel Castro, but he would be best utilized if he were to pitch only once per series. Trot him out there once and let their hitters try to hit that nasty stuff, then hide him away for the next series.
Jake and Max actually help make this strategy viable… I’d like all starters to add a full inning to their average IP per game… largely a result of better defense, manager’s attitude, and staff determination (Max!)
I couldn’t agree more. This is a topic dear or my heart. Here’s the numbers to show how much help this would be.
Good article Brian and while I wouldn’t consider myself part of the Henry Penny crowd and I generally agree with looking at production rather than handedness for relievers isn’t the need for some more left handed talent in the pen dictated more by the fact that some of the best hitters in our division have some pretty big platoon splits? I’m thinking of Harper, Soto and Freeman (assuming he stays in the division).
I think it is very clear that some dangerous hitters struggle mightily against LHP. Conforto is up and he is de-fanged with a LHP. It’s an obvious weapon that you’d like to have in your arsenal. At least, sorry, but I would.
Best case scenario, imho, Peterson, Megill, and Yamamoto begin the year in Syracuse rotation. Mets add a quality lefty to pen, quality being a key component. I’d also like to see another multi-inning righty, or perhaps they can bring in a controllable back end power arm/closer-type via trade.
I would be surprised if they don’t carry 8 pen guys for the large majority of games, but there are many factors that go into that besides the health and performance of Jake and Max.
It was an interesting idea about the 7 man bullpen but if there is a DH then there shouldn’t be much need for pinch hitters so a 8 man bullpen would be more useful. With the DH then the bench would be sufficient with back up catcher, an 4th outfielder and a utility infielder. Your idea to add a speed guy and a elite pinch hitter type could round out the 5 man bench. The DH should alter ideas about the roster construction in the NL.
An eight man bullpen should have a closer (Diaz), four one inning setup men (May, Castro, Smith and ?Hand?) and three muti- innings (Lugo, Williams and ?McHugh?).
They should obtain a #2 or #3 starting pitcher that force Peterson and Megill to be the depth in the minor leagues.
Today’s piece by Mike Puma in the NYPost had the Mets interested in Craig Kimbrell. Not sure what the trade cost would be as I believe he has two years left on his deal, but that can be a factor to push everyone down a spot.
In all, I think having a third catcher is more of an advantage than having a mop up guy in the bullpen would be.
I think the pen needs more quality — and at least one more major late-inning addition.
It’s nice to think that Lugo is suddenly healthy — the old zip is back, the curve has bite — but that sure wasn’t the guy I saw last season. So many games where he was unavailable, putting more stress on the other relievers. It was a season-long problem.
Durability matters.
I didn’t realize that Hand pitched as well as noted in the article. I don’t recall feeling comfortable in any of his appearances.
Clearly the Mets need more balance in the pen. Getting the best available LH reliever should be priority one… the last thing you want is to pitch to Soto or Harper in high average situations and have no LH option.
If we get another closer, like Kimbrel, you can forget Diaz as an effective piece; I believe his machismo psyche requires that he close.
Finally, the numbers on relievers are hard to lean on. There should be “high-leverage” numbers and “low-leverage” numbers. I’d like to see us get a few more really dependable high-leverage guys, and bump the Reid-Foleys and the Trevor Mays further down the pecking order.
A small observation that i can’t really find good data to back me up so i don’t know if this is actually accurate or not:
Not sure if this was more a function of the 3-batter rule or just Rojas’ philosophy, but i seemed to notice in the last 2 years that managers trended away towards making pitching changes mid-inning, and strive to get their pitchers (both starting and relief) to always end their appearances with the 3rd out. I can’t really say if this is a good or bad thing, but just something i think has changed in the last few years.
I’m torn on this.
I think the 3-batter rule has made for a better game. But it has reduced some strategy available to managers/teams. I think the smarter clubs were already moving away from the LOOGY gambit but there were definitely teams that needed to be pushed to do it.
A theoretical question for you — Do you believe the game would be even better if the number of batters was raised to four while keeping the end of inning clause? If an inning has two LHB and one RHB due up, it still slants things for the lefty specialist who can’t retire RHB at anything close to an acceptable rate. Under the current rule, the lefty reliever can pitch around the righty, regardless of when he’s due up because he only has to face one RHB. But it seems if he had to face two RHB it would bring back the missing strategy. Do you potentially let your lefty reliever face a second RHB in an inning, and this time with a man on base?
Seems like that might be the best of both worlds.
I don’t think they would ever go to the fourth batter because it would severely tip potential outcomes toward throwing an abundance of pitches. Three batters can realistically run 25 pitches maximum. But if that same guy was forced to face another hitter, and that hitter went deep, we could be passing 35 pitches… too many for some guys, especially guys who pitched yesterday… baaaaad for the teams who would then have to deal with injuries and having to explain too much to the fanbase and the media… doubt the union would ever go for it… hate watching a guy twist in the wind with no recourse for the manager.
Excellent points.
First I think the Mets will hit this year with their new additions who will also make the other hitters around them better because they will see better pitches. This in turn will take pressure off of the starting pitchers who will be allowed to go a little bit deeper into the games if they’ve got some runs behind them. Can’t argue with the combo of relief pitchers being discussed but can’t help but think we will snag one dominant arm to share the end load with Diaz. That would make the pen scary to other teams. Nothing worse than getting shut down by a strong reliever, only to have another one coming at you in the next inning. Still baffled why relievers can’t go multiple innings more often. Take a look at Goose Gossage’s stats. He stayed in the game till the job was done. That’s what we need! And I’d love to be able to carry an additional position player versus a seldom used reliever.