Please use this thread all week to discuss any Mets-specific topic you wish.
It appears the Mets are replacing Dominic Smith and Michael Conforto with Mark Canha and Starling Marte. Here’s that quartet’s production in fWAR for 2021:
Smith – (-0.5)
Conforto – 0.8
Canha – 2.6
Marte – 5.5
Few expect Marte to repeat what he did last year but there hasn’t been a ton of speculation on what to expect from Canha. The Steamer projections are out and it forecasts a 2.9 for Marte and a 1.9 for Canha. If that’s what they do give the Mets, that’s a 4.5 upgrade from Conforto & Smith a year ago. Eduardo Escobar has a 1.8 forecast, which is a downgrade of 0.3 from what Jonathan Villar gave the Mets last season. Finally, Max Scherzer is projected to add 1.7 to what Marcus Stroman delivered in 2021. Add it up and it’s an upgrade of 5.9 wins.
Where do the other seven wins come from to get the Mets to a 90-win season?
I suppose an improved offensive performance from McNeil would help a bit towards that. I am also assuming Cano does nothing for the team in 2022.
In my estimation, Rojas was a -5.0 (he cost the team 5 wins) and Buck is a +5.0 (he earns the team five wins)… there’s 10 more wins!
So in 2018 if Rojas manages the Orioles they would have lost 125 games and should have lost 120 but because they had Showalter they only lost 115 games.
The article that Brian linked below was very informative.(thanks Brian) According to Pythagorean W-L the 2018 Orioles should have only lost 107.
Now to be fair, Showalter is a good manager according to Pythagorean W-L.
In 8 full years his record was 5-2-1 beating the Pythagorean W-L with an average of 1.625 wins per season.
Aside from some additional upgrades through trades/free agency, and assuming the roster as it is now is substantially what they go with, my gut reaction to where 7 wins would have to come from would be:
– a full season from deGrom
– a full season from Nimmo
– a bounce back from McNeil
– a consistent season from Walker as a #3/4 starter
All of those things are obviously huge question marks. I think each of them have a reasonable chance of happening, but counting on them all is a stretch, which underscores the need for additional upgrades (rotation is #1).
Carlos Carrasco probably belongs on that list, too.
Interesting predictions Wobbit, regarding the input of the managers would give (or gave) to the team. Even if the offense is as bad in 2022 as it was last year, I do believe that the (mis)management of the starting rotation and bullpen did cost us a # of games. Was it five? Seven? I don’t know, and I can’t give analytics to any of the numbers. Perhaps Brian can.
If I’m optimistic for 2022, it’s because we do have a veteran manager at the helm, and we can only hope and pray that the injury bug won’t be as devastating this year. Still, you never can tell.
Weren’t we all predicting that the offense in 2021 would be one of the best ever in Mets history? I’m sure that Brian will recap those lofty predictions we all made sometimes in the near future!
If WAR only worked like that…
in any event, Canha and Marte are big steps up from Conforto and Smith.
Well, it pretty much does, so long as you remember that the “R” stands for replacement. So you have to add in what a team of replacement players would do along with what the players actually did. Devan Fink ran the numbers in 2018 and found this:
“As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86). The line of best fit is y = 1.06 x – 4.61. So, if your team is projected to produce 100 “WAR wins” (47.628 + 52.372 WAR), they would be expected to win about 101 games. While the correlation does create some variance, the line of best fit demonstrates that the ratio of WAR to wins is pretty close to one-to-one, on average.”
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
The story of Jacob deGrom says all we need to know:
As of April 2021, deGrom posted a cumulative about 21 bWAR, in that time, the Mets were 36-42 in his starts. For a long stretch, deGroms starts lead to losses to the tune of a losing record. So, the idea that any individual player WAR leads to actual team wins in a season is folly. What those plots show is the overall averaging from all team members, not individual. Furthermore, the plots are all rearward looking – based on acutal outcomes. What you are showing are predictions about WAR. We have seen constantly that all the predictions in the world amount to practically zero value. If it worked that easy, then all the “stratomatic” games we play in March would turn out true. Outside a few teams, like the Dodgers, counting on forward WAR for games not played should not be considered as true, and for individuals, I eould put no one in the safe zone for predictions.
I think you’re so eager to dismiss this that you didn’t read what I actually wrote.
“The Steamer projections are out and it forecasts a 2.9 for Marte and a 1.9 for Canha. If that’s what they do give the Mets…”
Of course the projections are just that – projections. If projections could predict what players would do with 100% accuracy, there would be no reason to play the games.
If Canha and Marte end up giving what the Steamer projections give – and everything else stays the same – the Mets are six wins better than they were in 2021. Of course, very few things in life stay the same.
Im eager to dismiss it because it doesnt work in reality, relying on predictions and conditions that are known to end up being different. Canha and Marte are better – lets hope it leads to more wins.
How is a full season from JdG “obviously [a] huge question mark”?
Still waiting for an actual diagnosis/prognosis from an actual medical professional who has worked directly with JdG
Because otherwise, it’s all uninspiring speculation
deGrom didn’t pitch at all the second half of last season and there was a report that he had a tear in his UCL which was later reported to have “resolved”. That certainly leaves some questions in my mind. Your point about waiting for an actual diagnosis/prognosis from an actual medical professional is a good one, and sums up exactly why it’s a huge question mark.
Some Mets news today
Zack Scott found not guilty of DWI
Eric Chavez to be the new hitting coach
FYI: NY Times to buy the Athletic.
During last night’s Knicks game, Julius Randle gave a “thumb down” gesture to the fans. Asked about it after the game, he said it was a message to “shut the f@#k up.” Sandy Alderson came out immediately and ended the thumbs down gesture. It will be curious to see if the Knicks do anything to reel in their star player.
Yes saw that about the Knicks. I haven’t seen anyone try and tie it back into the Mets yet.
I turned on the game in the fourth quarter and I saw it happen live. It jumped out at me but I got caught up by the comeback. Sort of forgot about it until I saw the headline in The Athletic today.
Just some odds and ends:
Julius Randle today: “Sometimes we say things we regret to those we love”. Sounds nice, I guess. Whatever. It was obviously premeditated.
As for Marte and Cahna beating Conforto’s and Smith’s 2021 stats, who’s to say Conforto and Smith won’t also do it? In which case, was it a mistake to not give at least Smith the chance? I just don’t see why they didn’t give Smith and all the kids that spot. I mean, Cahna is a nice player but not going to make much of a dent from his #7 spot in the batting order.
McNeil for Gleyber Torres, who says no?
Honestly, I feel Jeff McNeil has peaked. The shift, his diminishing power, and maybe pitchers figuring out how to get him out has reduced his ceiling to not much above ordinary. More importantly, are any of us sure of where he stands in the clubhouse… is he wanted and will he cope?
Gleyber Torres was headed for stardom just two seasons ago and is so young, he can return to that track readily. All things being equal, I’d rather have Gleyber.
But in the whole picture of 2B, I’d list our options in order of preference as:
Trevor Story
Solano
Torres
Guillorme
Villar
McNeil
Cano
It’s tough to say exactly what happened with McNeil this past year. Coming off of three straight outstanding years he was definitely a huge disappointment. While none of us know for sure what happened, of the possibilities that you mentioned I find it tough to think that the shift or pitchers figuring him out are the reason. The shift has been around since McNeil has been playing and it doesn’t seem likely to me that in year 4 pitchers suddenly figured out how to shut him down. What seems more feasible to me is that he had a bad year, partially due to being hurt for a while and then that, along with some of the Lindor/clubhouse BS got in his head. Will he bounce back from that? Who knows but I think it would be prudent to give him that chance. If he shows that he’s done, then move on. I think he’s definitely a better option than Guiilorme or Villar. With that said if he can be part of a package that brings back some needed starting pitching, by all means we should look at that.
To the question Gus asked, my guess would be the Yankees say no to that deal based on age and potential.
How to get McNeil out?
Throw him something junky early in the court. He swings early and either gets himself out early or fouls off pitches and gets behind in the count. Hard to produce under those circumstances.
McNeil’s impatience, immaturity, and volatile temperament work against him. Somebody tell us what his results are on hitting the first pitch… my observance is that he has not succeeded since his first season… yet still he hacks away and falls behind, or grounds out weakly, or hits a lazy fly ball… (and then slams his helmet down…). Pitchers take note not to groove a fastball early…
Wobbit, for you, see below:
In 2021:
Swung at the first pitch in 192 plate appearances: .264/.318/.404/.722
Didn’t swing at the first pitch in 234 plate appearances: .240/.321/.322/.643
McNeil at home: .294/.356/.444/.800. 116 OPS+
McNeil on the road: .211/.285/.281/.566. 62 OPS+
I’ll be damned.
Play him in home games and let him hack away, I guess.
Thanks, Gus.