Mets 2022 projections: Max Scherzer

Today we kick off our 10th year of doing individual projections for the top players on the Mets. My hope is that everyone will weigh in on what they think the player will do in 2022. You’ll have more credibility later on about how you “knew” what Player X was going to do this season if you say it before the games start. Of course, we have the lockout going on now, so it’s unsure of how many games will be played this year.

Additionally, we have Covid cases still raging on. We’ve seen in other sport leagues where individuals have been sidelined frequently due to positive tests or being close contacts to infected people. It would be foolish to pretend that won’t happen in MLB, too.

With those twin pillars of doubt surrounding us, this year’s projections will do away with counting numbers. Honestly, this is something that should have been done a few years ago. Initially, these projections were from all of the writers at the site. It was easier to get them to forecast ratios if things like RBIs and Wins were part of the numbers, too.

This year we’ll have the following numbers:
Pitchers – ERA, WHIP, HR/9, BB/9, K/9
Hitters – AVG, OBP, SLG, BB%, K%

Like last year, the computer forecasts will be given earlier in the article, with my forecast near the end. Not all of the computer systems are available yet at FanGraphs but we’ll use what’s posted. We’ll display the RotoChamp forecast, too, but that gives AB and not PA in its forecast. To calculate ratios that require PA, we’ll add AB + BB, which will get us in the right ballpark for most players. Also, it does not forecast HR for pitchers, so the HR/9 field will be empty for RC.

We’ll start with Max Scherzer because it’s still hard to believe he’s on the Mets. Here are the forecasts from the computer models:

Marcel – 3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
RotoCh – 2.97 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 11.9 K/9
Steamer – 3.40 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 11.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
ZiPS – 3.08 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 12.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9

Not much variance, as you would expect from a super veteran like Scherzer. RotoChamp is the most bullish, with the only forecast with an ERA in the twos. ZiPS, which sometimes seems like a party pooper when it comes to the Mets, projects the best strikeout rate. Maybe ZiPS didn’t get the memo that Scherzer signed to pitch in Queens.

Essentially, there are two main worries when it comes to Scherzer. The first is his age, as he will turn 38 at the end of July. Father Time is undefeated; the only question is when age will catch up to Scherzer. But it’s encouraging that none of the forecasts think it will happen in 2022. But, if you’re going to project someone to be good at this age, it’s a pretty good idea to pick the guy who’s been dominant for a decade now.

The other worry is how Scherzer’s role with the MLBPA and the ongoing lockout will affect Scherzer. Time he might otherwise spend preparing for Spring Training could now be spent on negotiations, instead. This is a genuine concern. The hope is that Scherzer’s legendary commitment will serve him well here, that he’ll continue to work out while negotiations take place and he won’t be too far behind where he’d normally be when Spring Training finally begins.

Some might worry about fatigue, especially since Scherzer had to miss a start in the postseason. That’s not a major worry of mine, as the Dodgers used Scherzer in a relief role earlier and he needed extra time to recover from that. Scherzer himself said he would have pitched the next day, even if he was unsure how long he would have been able to go.

It shouldn’t be too difficult for the Mets to refrain from using him as a reliever at any point during his contract.

Sometimes it feels like Mets fans aren’t allowed to have nice things. Even with that realization in the front of my mind, it’s still difficult not to get excited about Scherzer and Jacob deGrom at the front of the rotation. If those two can combine for 60 starts in a 162-game season, it’s hard to imagine a repeat of the below .500 finishes of the past two years. It will be must-see TV when either of those guys pitch next season.

Here’s my totally biased forecast for Scherzer:

2.76 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9

My hope/expectation is that Scherzer pitches more or less like he did for the Nationals in 2021, not like the Superman guy he was for the Dodgers in the last 11 starts of the year. Although if he wants to keep up that pace over 30-plus games, he certainly has my permission.