The second-biggest free agent signing to date by the Mets has been nabbing Starling Marte on a four-year deal. Marte has been rumored to the Mets before but it’s difficult to know if that was just newspaper/fan speculation or if there was legitimate interest from the club. Back in 2020, the last time the Mets were supposedly in on Marte, the price “leaked” for the Mets to get him was substantially higher than what he was ultimately traded for to the Diamondbacks.
Marte is very athletic but he hasn’t been a great center fielder. With Brandon Nimmo coming off his best season defensively in CF, it will be curious to see how the Mets align their outfield. Another thing to watch is to see if whichever player ends up in a corner – and please stop with the talk of Nimmo playing RF because his arm would make that a disaster – winds up with better hitting numbers with less defensive responsibility. Regardless, here are the forecasts that we have today for Marte this season:
ATC – .277/.341/.431, 6.7 BB%, 18.6 K%
Marcel – .283/.347/.444, 6.6 BB%, 18.8 K%
RotoCh – .299/.362/.459, 6.8 BB%, 18.3 K%
Steamer – .269/.332/.427, 6.6 BB%, 19.2 K%
THE BAT – .274/.337/.418, 6.7 BB%, 18.8 K%
ZiPS — .273/.333/.432, 5.8 BB%, 18.6 K%
My guess is fans won’t be happy if the Steamer forecast ends up right. But it’s not like there’s a big difference between Steamer and any of the non-RC forecasts. In 2019, Marte had a .503 SLG mark and none of these systems sees him coming anywhere close to that mark. After hitting a combined 43 HR in 2018-19, Marte hit just seven last year.
Marte has consistently posted high BABIPs and last year he notched a .372 mark in the category. What’s really crazy is that isn’t his highest-mark ever. Instead, it ranks as just the third-highest BABIP in his career. Marte has a lifetime .344 BABIP. But he has wild fluctuations in the category. After posting a career-best .380 BABIP in 2016, he had a .324 mark the following season. It should be noted that 2017 is the year he only played 77 games due to a PED suspension.
From 2018-20, Marte was very consistent with his BABIP marks, as he notched a .312 in ‘18 and followed up with .319 marks in each of the next two seasons. With last year’s .372 BABIP, Marte recorded a 5.5 fWAR. He had a 3.6 fWAR in 2018 and a 3.0 mark in 2019. We should probably consider him a 3-Win player rather than a 5-Win one.
But 3-Win players are good to have. That’s what Michael Conforto was in 2018-2019 and that’s who Marte is essentially replacing on the Mets. Conforto is yet to sign but it’s extremely unlikely he would have accepted the terms that Marte agreed to before the lockout.
Still, what happens to Marte if he drops 50 points of BABIP from last year without adding back his missing power? The projections on FanGraphs have him with a 2.8-3.3 fWAR in 2022. And for the most part, those have him with good baserunning and defensive numbers. For what it’s worth, those same projections have Conforto posting an fWAR between 2.3-2.5 in 2022.
One thing the computer forecasts don’t consider is the chance of a first-season drop in performance after signing a big free-agent contract to come to the Mets. We saw that with Carlos Beltran – 6.4 fWAR to 2.3 in his first year with the Mets, – we saw that with Jason Bay – 4.6 fWAR to 1.3, – we saw that with Curtis Granderson – 4.0 fWAR in his last full season to 1.2 – and we saw that with Francisco Lindor – 4.7 fWAR in his last full season to 2.7 with the Mets. Lindor technically wasn’t a free agent acquisition but he signed a new contract after the trade and before the season started.
Now, some fans might look at it that Marte had a 5.5 fWAR last year and then if he put up a 3.1 mark this season as a continuation of that trend. But an fWAR in the threes is our expectation. If Marte puts up a 2021 Conforto season – that would be a continuation of bad season in New York in first season with big new contract.
That’s a sobering thought.
From my point of view, this is another reason to be glad the Mets have an experienced hand in Buck Showalter to manage this season. Hopefully Showalter, as well as Lindor and other players, can help Marte avoid having things snowball on him. Willie Randolph was in his first year as manager Beltran’s first season here and Luis Rojas was in his second year – first full season – for Lindor last year. The other two had Terry Collins and, well, I for one sure hope that Showalter is better than Collins in this and every other category out there.
Here’s my totally biased projection for Marte in 2022:
.269/.332/.399, 6.6 BB%, 18.5 K%
You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with how you think Marte will do this season.
.275/.340/.415
7BB%
19K%
85 runs, 30 SBs
Of all the Marte stats, I think OBP will be the most important for next season. If he’s the leadoff hitter, it’s easy to see that getting on base leads to very positive outcomes. Besides the stolen base threat, it throws the defense into compromised situations regarding the shift. This totally increases the chances for #2 (Nimmo?), #3 (Lindor?), and number 4 (Alonso?), and puts the onus on these critical hitters to produce.
I don’t see why we should fear a huge drop-off in Marte’s effectiveness. He’s a mature guy with a ton of speed and ability. and if the Mets can pitch as well as it appears they may, all he has to be is steady and solid to be a winning ball club. I’m sorry, but Marte poses a better all-around likelihood of that than Conforto did.
And thanks for quashing any further talk of Nimmo in right field… he’s perfect in LF.
I see this elsewhere, but I don’t know why anyone would consider Marte at leadoff.
Marte didn’t leadoff at all in 2020 or 2021 and, over the course of his career, he’s lead off about 20% of the time.
The Mets already have an exceptional leadoff man in Nimmo.
And, yes, Nimmo can’t possibly play RF.
Springer was my #1 target last season but the Mets went in a different direction.
Nimmo is even more perfect at #2. Takes a lot of pitches, can hit to all fields, hard to double-up. If Marte can steal 40 bases, the Mets score a lot more runs… the main reason to bat him leadoff. Marte in my leadoff hitter, especially against LHers.
Marte: .277 / .350 / .415 / 105 runs / 42 SB
Marte they should be the leadoff hitter because he had a 90% success rate in stolen bases in 2021 and then followed by Nimmo, who works the count, which will give Marte opportunity to steal. It could be a nice weapon to have.
281/346/445 6.5 BB%, 19.0 K%
Stolen bases are a bit overrated – especially in the first inning which is the only time this would really come into play. I don’t have the stats – I’m sure Brian could dig them up off Baseball Reference, but from what I’ve read, Marte has been a bad leadoff hitter in his career. Like, really bad. We have one of the best leadoff hitters in the game in Nimmo. Don’t fix something that aint broken. With Nimmo leading off, Marte is in a position to drive in some runs with his extra base power, or be selective and get two on for the big bats coming up 3, 4, 5.
Also wouldn’t be surprised to see Nimmo stay in center and Marte patrol LF. Nimmo was better in CF last season than Marte was, is younger, and knows Citi Field.
Carreer-wise, Marte is best batting 4th with of .879 OPS in 495 PA. !!! Then 3rd, 5th ,2nd and last 1st. What I thought to be obvious was just the opposite.
Excellent points, BoomBoom.
Nobody has ever really considered Marte a leadoff man except the Metsblogosphere this long dull offseason.
The 42 SBs last year were an all-time high. And he’s getting older. I think it’s fair to assume that number is at 30 this year and declining.
As much as I hate the idea, but I think Marte sets up well as a replacement from Nimmo defensively. Both are really left fielders.
Once again, Sandy waited too long to pull the trigger on extending Nimmo. The closer you get to the end of the contract, the less chance of a team discount, the less it appeals to a player. Nimmo signed up with Boras now.
We’ll see what happens. But retaining him is now a lot more expensive than it would have been a year ago (conjecture, yes, but based on reality, I think).
By the way: Do you know the song “Boom Boom Mancini” by Warren Zevon? Man, that’s a great tune to blast.
We can now rest assured that the Mets fabled Analytics Department is running 100,000 computer simulations comparing the Marte/Nimmo lineup placement. I think it probably doesn’t make a big difference in the end. Hopefully Buck will also take into account the comfort of the players themselves, how they feel about it, since that ties into performance. To me, an issue that’s interesting to discuss but not really significant in the end.
One more thought on this and I’ll stop.
But Marte is a much better “contact” guy than Nimmo, who K’s a lot. And you are devaluing OBP — where the two players have a huge difference — falling into the somewhat antiquated “fast guy at the top” strategy that’s been largely debunked by more sophisticated analysis of how runs are scored.
Anyway, I mean to say: this isn’t personal and my apologies if I ever tend to get rigid or inflexible or (yikes) dismissive. It’s just baseball talk and I’m not trying to win anything here. Though I will, I guess, try to forcefully express my perspective. For whatever reason, I find it interesting, grappling with this game.
Peace & baseball.
I’ll go with the ATC line above, it looks as good as any guestimate. 3+ WAR, a full season, and no failed drug testing will be great.
Regarding batting order, Nimmo is an elite OBP guy, like .393 lifetime with .398 vs RHP and .378 vs LHP. That is significantly better than Marte with very similar slugging percentages. For my two cents, that by far trumps the stolen base/speed issue. Nimmo is no great base stealer, but he has decent wheels and will score plenty of runs if the middle of the lineup delivers.
Nimmo’s arm in RF scares me…it scares me in CF too.
.285/.345/.410, 6.1 BB%, 19.5 K% and 37 SB