Things are a lot easier if your players stay healthy.
In 2021, 11 teams won at least 90 games. Eight of those 11 teams had a minimum of four players amass at least 500 PA, with the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros each having six players reach that threshold. The Mets had three, which is not a poor number but the players who played a lot didn’t exactly kill it. Pete Alonso bounced back from his 2020 campaign but was quite a bit off from his rookie season. Francisco Lindor was terrible for two months before hitting his stride. And Jonathan Villar was brought in for depth and turned in a league-average season with a 102 OPS+.
In 2019, the Mets had five players with at least 500 PA and that team won 86 games. The 2015 squad that made the World Series had four players. The teams that made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons in 1999 and 2000 had seven and six players, respectively, reach the 500- PA threshold.
From 1996-2002, the Mets had a total of 38 combined seasons of players reaching 500 PA, an average of 5.4 per year. That lines up nicely with the tenure of Bobby Valentine, although he managed just 31 games in 1996 after taking over for Dallas Green. But the Mets placed just four players in our 500-PA group that season, the worst mark of Valentine’s tenure.
The Mets went 536-467 under Valentine, a .534 winning percentage or an average of 86.5 wins per season. The Mets generally had four or five players reach 500 PA under Davey Johnson. Under Gil Hodges the number was either two or three but Hodges aggressively platooned, so that number isn’t surprising.
Recently, with the exception of 2019, the Mets have had either two or three players per year from 2016-2021 reach 500 PA. Taking out 2019, the Mets have gone 337-371 since 2016, with a winning season just once in those five years, in 2016.
So, why don’t players reach 500 PA in a season? Either they’re not good enough to be full-time guys or they get injured. It’s tough to talk about injuries because inevitably someone will say – “All teams deal with injuries.” And that’s true, to a point. To the best of my knowledge, no team has gone 162 games without running into injuries. At the same time there are teams that are fortunate in this regard and other teams that specialize in bad luck.
One of my core baseball beliefs is that you should examine what successful teams do and see if there’s anything that you can incorporate for your own club. Now, that doesn’t mean just copy everything blindly. The LOOGY gambit was very successful for the Oakland A’s because they had starters who pitched a lot of innings and a shutdown closer. That made carrying a guy all year who only pitched 40 innings not a big drag on the pitching staff. That same philosophy didn’t work out too well for the Terry Collins-era Mets.
In having guys consistently get 500-PA in a season, the Mets should reach out to Davey Johnson and Valentine to see if they did anything specific that the current club isn’t doing. It may be nothing more than good fortune. But there’s at least some chance that those guys did something that the Mets haven’t done since David Wright retired. It’s worth two phone calls.
Perhaps you’re wondering how Buck Showalter’s clubs did in this regard. Let’s look at each year he managed a full season.
1992 – 5
1993 – 5
1994 – 0 (strike)
1995 – 4 (delayed start)
1998 – 5
1999 – 5
2000 – 4
2003 – 5
2004 – 4
2005 – 7
2006 – 5
2011 – 7
2012 – 5
2013 – 7
2014 – 5
2015 – 3
2016 – 5
2017 – 6
2018 – 3
That’s 13 seasons with at least five players to reach 500 PA. And no full season with fewer than three players and only two years to have that mark.
Hopefully this doesn’t need to be said but there’s a big difference between prime Mike Piazza getting 500 PA and prime Buddy Harrelson getting the same number. Showalter’s 2017 Orioles went 75-87 even with six players to reach 500 PA. Still, it would be fun to see a Mets lineup have seven guys reach that plateau, something that’s happened three times for Showalter and not once for the Mets this century.
And, of course, this is just offense; pitching will have a lot to say about how successful this year is. May the Mets enjoy good health with their hurlers, as well as their batters, in 2022 and going forward under Showalter.
The Mets will likely still add at least one everyday player… either OF, 2B, 3B.
I’d add hum to this list:
Marte top of the order guy… 600PAs
Nimmo can he possibly stay heathy?
Lindor 155 games?
Alonso 150 games?
Next in line:
Escobar switch hitter, high contact guy… every day player! He should also get there if healthy.
Canha 500 PAs = 60 BBs.
McNeil not unless he has a torrid start.
Respectfully, I think this is a result rather than a plan or a process.
All it takes is good players who stay healthy. That’s often going to be the mark of a good team enjoying a good season. The Mets came awfully close to have 5 as that number — and it wouldn’t have meant anything.
Dom was a PA leader for most of the season until the team (finally, far too late) pulled the plug on that disaster. He ended with 493. I don’t think the Mets are better off if he gets 7 more PAs.
Conforto was at 479 (a number that was, again, too many for what he produced).
Going into 2022, I’d hope that Lindor, Alonso, Escobar, Nimmo and Marte reach those numbers. Possibly the new 2B if we get one. We’ll see that result if those players are productive and stay healthy.
Good players staying healthy isn’t really a plan, beyond beginning with players who are actually good. Then luck.
The challenge is to talk about health/injuries in a way that doesn’t get people to tune out. There’s got to be at least a little something to the fact that Johnson, Valentine and Showalter all have had success in getting above-average number of players to this threshold. Maybe it’s 80% luck and 20% managing? I don’t pretend to know what the percentages are. I’m fairly confident it’s not 100% luck.
500 PA is certainly arbitrary and my hope is that Nimmo, Lindor, Marte and Alonso each get 600.
This year, the Mets could possibly have 6 players reach 500 PA if there is a DH if everyone stays healthy. That would be a pipe dream. Nimmo has a past with injuries and only reached 500 PA in his career in 2018. When he did it he had a 148 OPS+. Hopefully, he will stay healthy. Cano, as the DH, will have a tough time reaching the threshold because of his age and he hasn’t had 500 PA since 2017. A platoon with JD should benefit Cano’s health and utilize JD’s bat. The catcher, McCann, has never reached 500 PA in his career and he shouldn’t this year either. It seems that Showalter plays a set lineup so health should be the only issue to be among the leaders in players with 500+ PA.
I just want to suggest that Luis Guillorme can increase his playing time and value to the team by playing LF as well. If McNeil can do it, you know Luis G can do it.
Eh, if Guillorme is going to learn a new position, he should try catcher.
Absolutely! Brilliant! I believe I have heard that he was the emergency catcher. Certainly a viable option, it seems to me.