On keeping Robinson Cano for the DH or any other reason

Robinson Cano and J.D. Davis both joined the Mets for the 2019 season thanks to trades by short-term GM Brodie Van Wagenen. The Cano trade has been one that has been debated heatedly from when the rumors first started. The Davis deal was a much smaller transaction. Now, these two players find themselves connected again, as they are right now the top two contenders for the DH job in Queens.

Cano did not have a great debut with the Mets but he was terrific in his first 27 games of the truncated 2020 campaign, putting up a .380/.414/.674 line in his first 99 PA. In his final 83 trips to the plate before the season ended, Cano produced a .241/.277/.392 triple-slash line. Obviously, the hits weren’t falling in at the same unsustainable rate of the first 99 PA. But what should really be alarming is how drastically the power numbers declined. Cano went from a .274 ISO to a .151 mark.

You have to go back to 2016 to find a season where Cano topped a .200 ISO. Here are his year-by-year ISO numbers, starting in 2016:

.235
.173
.168
.172

Given what Cano produced in his three full years before 2020 – which one do you think was more indicative of what we should expect from him going forward? Would you expect him to be in the neighborhood of the .274 mark of his first 99 PA or the .151 mark of his final 83 PA? Of course, we also have to factor in that he didn’t play in MLB at all last year and will be in his age-39 season, reaching the last year of his 30s on October 22 in 2021.

In a Mets uniform, Cano has a .784 OPS in 605 PA. In that same span, Davis has an .845 OPS in 893 PA. He’s been better by a large margin, despite dealing with some nagging injuries the past two years. Given that he’s no one’s idea of a Gold Glove performer, the likely addition of the DH to the National League – boooooo! – once the lockout is over is a tremendous blessing for Davis. Cano’s not a great fielder at this point in his career, either. But he’s done in by his lack of range. He still has good hands and a strong, accurate arm. You can play him in the field and not wince when a ball’s hit in his direction.

Here’s what The Athletic’s Tim Britton said recently of Cano and the DH:

The Mets should probably look at Canó the same way they looked at one of their other DHs from 2020: Yoenis Céspedes. There remains the chance that Canó is a useful piece, but it’s hard to bet on a 39-year-old middle infielder who didn’t play all of last season. As with Céspedes, the DH provides Canó a much easier path to regular playing time. It does, however, raise the expectation for his production within it; the offensive standard is higher for a DH than for a second baseman. And while no, Canó won’t be opting out of his deal to save the Mets money, New York should be prepared for the possibility of moving on relatively quickly during the spring or the regular season if Canó doesn’t appear up to that challenge.

None of us know what’s going to happen. The best we can do is look at things objectively and play the percentages. Gary Gaetti wasn’t very good at age 38 and came back to put up an .852 OPS at age 39, an increase of 142 points of OPS. It’s not impossible to be better at 39 than 38. But Gaetti had 554 PA at age 38. To me, that matters.

Baseball-Reference’s Stathead shows that since the beginning of the DH in 1973, there have been just 40 players who amassed enough PA at age 39 to qualify for the batting title. Here’s what our group of 40 players did at age 38:

Barry Bonds – 550 PA, 231 OPS+, third straight MVP season
David Ortiz – 602 PA, 141 OPS+
Steve Finley – 582 PA, 115 OPS+
Alex Rodriguez – Sat out age-38 season with drug suspension
Carlos Beltran – 531 PA, 119 OPS+
Darrell Evans – 594 PA, 138 OPS+
Andres Galarraga – Sat out age-38 season with an injury
Dave Winfield – 537 PA, 122 OPS+
Willie McCovey – 251 PA, 82 OPS+
Reggie Jackson – 584 PA, 95 OPS+
Frank Thomas – 559 PA, 140 OPS+
Craig Biggio – 700 PA, 105 OPS+
Albert Pujols – 498 PA, 91 OPS+
Rafael Palmeiro – 654 PA, 84 OPS+
Carlton Fisk – 491 PA, 60 OPS+
Torii Hunter – 586 PA, 114 OPS+
Eddie Murray – 467 PA, 87 OPS+
Dave Parker – 600 PA, 110 OPS+
Carl Yastrzemski – 611 PA, 112 OPS+
Raul Ibanez – 636 PA, 111 OPS+
Jeff Kent – 473 PA, 119 OPS+
Chili Davis – 118 PA, 116 OPS+
Chipper Jones – 381 PA, 120 OPS+
Nelson Cruz – 521 PA, 168 OPS+
Joe Morgan – 554 PA, 136 OPS+
Luis Gonzalez – 668 PA, 99 OPS+
Rickey Henderson – 509 PA, 101 OPS+
Al Kaline – 347 PA, 96 OPS+
Rico Carty – 593 PA, 138 OPS+
Victor Martinez – 43 PA, 86 OPS+
Paul Molitor – 598 PA, 101 OPS+
Tony Perez – 635 PA, 108 OPS+
Ichiro Suzuki – 663 PA, 93 OPS+
George Brett – 572 PA, 101 OPS+
Omar Vizquel – 651 PA, 82 OPS+
Kenny Lofton – 406 PA, 109 OPS+
Ozzie Smith – 603 PA, 89 OPS+
Rod Carew – 378 PA, 102 OPS+
Pete Rose – 732 PA, 130 OPS+
Luis Aparicio – 474 PA, 89 OPS+

You want to play the percentages? Just 5% of the players who had enough PA to qualify for the batting title – 501 in a 162-game season – since 1973 at age 39 did not play at all at age 38. And here’s how those two players did at age 36 and 37:

Rodriguez – 710 PA, 112 OPS+
Galarraga – 1,322 PA, 143 OPS+

Here’s how Cano did at age 36 & 37 – 605 PA, 109 OPS+. That’s right in line with Rodriguez but Galarraga was significantly better. And with Galarraga missing a year for injury, you can say that there is only one comp among 40 for Cano, or 2.5%.

To me, it’s a no-brainer to use Davis as the DH in 2022 and beyond, given how he performs with the bat and being young enough where you wouldn’t predict a drop in hitting ability. And if the Mets trade Davis, my preference would be to use some combination of Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith there. Or sign a free agent to take the bulk of the ABs in that slot.

You hear some advocating for a multi-person approach to the DH slot. My opinion is that’s a giant mistake, especially when you have a defensive butcher with a lifetime 128 OPS+ with your club available for the spot. Only five players in the AL saw at least 100 games as a DH last year. Know what they had in common? They all put up at least a 126 OPS+

Those five teams finished in the top five in the AL in production from the DH spot. The trend may be to split DH time among multiple players but that’s more of a product of finding value from the position when you don’t have a big bat available. If you have a big bat who’s not a great fielder, like the Red Sox with J.D. Martinez, you DH him as often as you can. It’s not rocket science.

Some might be convinced to use Davis as the primary DH but not be sold with moving on from Cano. What’s the harm with keeping him around and give him Spring Training and games during the regular season to see if he can still play at a solid level? He doesn’t have to get 501 PA to be useful. Perhaps he can thrive in a role half that size.

Perhaps he can. But it still seems like a longshot to me. And the danger in giving him that PT is that he’s awful. The Mets are not some 100-win juggernaut. They likely need everything to break right for them to make the playoffs. You want to jeopardize that by giving 200 PA to a 39 year old coming off a missed season?

We know that inevitably that the team will get sub-par production from injury replacements (or if last year is any guide, starters) – so why make that more likely with having someone lousy on your Opening Day roster? We know full well that someone is going to be this year’s Jose Peraza, a guy called up from the minors, see significant playing time and be awful. In Peraza’s case, it was 154 PA and a 76 OPS+.

Maybe you disagree with the premise that Cano is destined to be awful, regardless of how he performs in meaningless Spring Training games. Since 2010, there have been 37 non-pitchers to get a PA in their age-39 season. And 27 of those were below average, with 18 of those putting up an OPS+ of 76 or worse. Of the 24 players to get fewer than 300 PA, only four reached a 100 OPS+. Here are the middle infielders among our 37-player sample and their OPS+:

90 – Miguel Tejada
76 – Juan Castro
74 – Craig Counsell
68 – Chase Utley
52 – Derek Jeter
44 – Jamey Carroll
34 – John McDonald

Tejada got off to a pretty good start, with an .846 OPS after 22 games. But his next 31 games saw a .612 OPS – with a .306 BABIP – before winding up on the IL with a strained calf muscle. While out injured, Tejada received a 105-game suspension for his third failed drug test, with two of those happening during that current season.

Recent history shows that it’s not a good idea to keep a 39 year old backup middle infielder. Oh yeah, that’s another problem. If Cano’s not the DH, your roster configuration is going to look unusual because he cannot play shortstop. Do you want to go into the season with Dominic Smith and Davis as the only players as backup outfielders? It’s either that or count Eduardo Escobar as the backup SS. And if Escobar plays short, that means either Davis or Jeff McNeil plays 3B. Because Cano can’t play 3B, either.

Let’s say that the Mets have a 13-13 pitcher hitter split. They certainly won’t carry 14 hitters and there’s probably at least a 10% chance they’ll go with 14 pitchers. But let’s say they have 13 hitters. Ignoring the DH for this exercise, you typically have eight starters, a backup catcher, two backup infielders and two backup outfielders. Let’s say the backup infielders are Cano and Davis. That leaves you without a shortstop. So, you carry Luis Guillorme and one outfielder to go along with your backup catcher. Or you punt backup SS and plan to use a left side of the infield of Davis at 3B and Escobar at SS on those days when Francisco Lindor needs a day off. Just so you can keep Cano.

There’s a non-zero chance that Cano’s not awful in 2022. My guess would put it at under 2% but I won’t argue if you say it’s 3X that much. Regardless of where you put that number, are you willing to risk however many PA to find out in a year where a playoff spot needs every win maximized? It’s one thing to play Rafael Santana and his 52 OPS+ on a team that wins 108 games during the regular season. It’s another thing with the 2022 Mets.

Wishing that the Mets cut ties with Cano is not some principled stand with me. If he ends up on the roster and comes to the plate in a key situation, I’ll be rooting for him to hit a double into the gap. It’s just that knowing what we know about 39 year olds missing a full season at age 38, the likelihood of a 39 year old middle infielder being productive in a part-time role, the Mets less-than-awesome playoff odds and the likelihood of how the Mets will construct their roster – all of that adds up to thinking that roster spot should be used on a different and more-useful player.