This time last year, everyone was excited about the acquisition of Carlos Carrasco as part of the Francisco Lindor deal. The Mets desperately needed starting pitching and Carrasco had battled back from his cancer scare and looked just as good as ever. Unfortunately, Carrasco was injured during Spring Training and it seemingly took forever for him to take the mound for the Mets. And once he did pitch, well, he was horrible. He had great difficulty getting thru the early innings unscathed. And it’s not like he was lights out after that, either.
In the offseason, Carrasco had bone fragments removed from his right elbow, in what’s been described as a minor procedure. Carrasco has posted video of him throwing from a mound, so that’s encouraging. As fans, we can hope that the terrible 2021 can be explained with some combination of the delay to the season and then trying to pitch with his elbow not right. Otherwise, we’d have to contemplate that he was simply done as an MLB pitcher. Here’s what the computer models forecast for Carrasco in 2022:
ATC – 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.11 K/9, 2.85 B/9, 1.44 HR/9
Marcel – 4.54 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
RotoCH – 4.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.47 K/9, 2.95 BB/9
Steamer – 4.09 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.03 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9
THE BAT – 5.02 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.32 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 1.59 HR/9
ZiPS – 4.00 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.56 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 1.33 HR/9
Generally, these are not the most optimistic forecasts you’ll ever see for a guy with a lifetime 3.86 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. And to make matters a tiny bit more depressing, the ZiPS forecast is in just 81 IP. Steamer is pretty close to ZiPS and it projects 144 IP so we’ll claim that one to be the most bullish. I triple checked that ERA from THE BAT but it does indeed project one that high. For what it’s worth, it’s FIP forecast is 4.96, so it sees him earning that ERA over 130 IP.
In some cases, like Brandon Nimmo’s SLG, you can look at the computer models and make a good case for why they’re wrong. But that doesn’t seem to be the case here. That doesn’t mean it would be a shock if a healthy Carrasco put up a sub-4 ERA. It’s just that there’s no reason to expect that from a guy getting ready for his age-35 season who put up ugly numbers in two of the last three years.
My hope and expectation is that the Mets sign someone who jumps Carrasco in the pecking order for the pitching staff. But if they just add a back-end guy and the season is somewhat close to a normal length – say at least 125 games – you could make the argument that the production of Carrasco will be a key to how good of a season the club has in 2022. He simply can’t be the drain he was last year and he needs to be better than the forecast from THE BAT, too, if the Mets hope to make the playoffs.
Carrasco made five consecutive starts last year and notched a 3.18 ERA over 28.1 IP. That came from 8/26-9/18. Unfortunately, he had an 8.82 ERA in his first five games and a 10.00 ERA in his final two games of the season. Perhaps those middle five games indicate that not all hope is lost for Carrasco to be an effective pitcher in 2022.
A giant problem for Carrasco last year was the gopher ball. Even in that stretch where he did well, Carrasco surrendered 4 HR in 28.1 IP. Overall, it was 12 HR in 53.2 IP for a 2.01 HR/9. Five times in his career, Carrasco had a HR/9 below 1.0 and another season it was 1.08, so it’s not like he’s a guy who regularly gives up the long ball.
Can Carrasco take the ball every five games and keep the ball in the park while doing so? Those are the two big questions for him this season. My totally biased forecast for Carrasco in 2022:
4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.52 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 1.39 HR/9
3.98 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.50 K/9, 2.80 BB/9, 1.75 HR/9
4.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.02 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 1.7 HR/9
I don’t expect Carrasco to pitch like he did in 2018. I feel at this stage of his career he will be #5 starter. He will be unable to avoid the IL. The gopher ball will remain and haunt him.
Tough prideful competitor. Hoping for the best.
3.85 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.5 HR/9
Makes 24 starts. 130IP
Brian, I know this is off-topic and I won’t be the least bit offended if you delete it. I don’t subscribe to ESPN+, so I’m wondering how Kiley McDaniel rated our farm system.
How much value are we supposed to put into stats that are put up when an athlete is playing through an injury?
To me, it makes all the numbers tainted and, therefore, all the projections worthless, too (since they are based on “bad” info).
I don’t know if he’s going to be healthy or not. He’s a good reason why I hoped the Mets would pick up another high-quality starter.
This process is like trying to thread a needle in a hurricane. There is so little to go on because nothing in the past really matters much, and the last two years were complete anomalies. It comes down to who this guy really is. Is he a determined fighter who is committed body and soul to his career and to being a whole contributor, a guy who can reinvent himself? Those guys are really rare, and two years of Covid has really messed with all of us, psychologically.
But the one thing that seems clear, the bones chips were bad enough to require surgery, and therefore bad enough to affect his performance. I was impressed with the guy’s arsenal on more than one occasion. So assuming the results fall somewhere in the middle, I’d be really happy with:
20 starts / 120 IP / 3.75 / 1.25 WHIP
He cannot be the #3. Walker’s a better bet. Maybe he can settle into a back-end starter who is babied this year hoping to get two more years from him in near-top form. Gotta admit though… more likely, he’s toast. Hope not.
When you look at Jake’s injury history, and Carrasco’s, and Walker’s second half in 2021, it’s easy to see how this rotation could be in serious trouble even without much bad luck.
Still need another starter.
Another outfielder.
A true second baseman.
And two more relievers.
Hope the starter is LH (Rondon)
Hope the OF is Winker (LH)
2B will likely be McNeil/Guillorme (cheap)
Need at least one LH reliever
My guess is that most of the solutions from this point forward will be addressed through trades rather than big-ticket signings and therefore much harder to predict.
I’ve never felt that the Mets have particularly respected Guillorme. They are quick to put him on the shelf. There’s no way he’s the starting 2B. And McNeil comes down to how much power Lindor does or doesn’t have. My guess is: a lot.
It could be that I’ve completely misread the degree of tension between those two players.