I feel sorry for Mark Canha.
His profile – low AVG, good-to-high OBP and questionable SLG – is one bound to make him underrated by the average fan. He’s the kind of guy who can hit .225 and be valuable if the OBP and SLG are there. He’s also the guy who can hit .225 and remind you more of 1972 Tommie Agee and no one wants to be reminded of that particular season of Agee’s career. Baseball-Reference has Canha’s top age-based comp as Scott Hairston. If Canha can deliver the power that Hairston delivered his two years with the Mets, this will be a very good signing. Here’s what the computer models think:
ATC — .238/.352/.438, 12.3 BB%, 22.0 K%
Marcel – .241/.358/.410, 12.1 BB%, 21.8 K%
RotoCh – .240/.366/.411, 13.9 BB%, 22.0 K%
Steamer – .233/.348/.403, 12.0 BB%, 22.3 K%
THE BAT – .243/.354/.415, 11.6 BB%, 21.5 K%
ZiPS — .237/.356/.418, 12.1 BB%, 226 K%
Look at that ZiPS forecast. Some people are going to focus on that AVG and ignore the fact that his total line produces a 118 wRC+. That’s pretty much 1973 Rusty Staub, who put up a 121 wRC+ but with a .279 AVG. Staub had a 42-point advantage in AVG compared to the above ZiPS forecast. But it was just a combined 8-point advantage in OBP + SLG.
Canha has been around for awhile, which means the computer forecasts are going to be similar. There’s a 20-point difference in SLG forecasts for ATC and ZiPS, which certainly speaks to the questionable SLG output mentioned in the first graph. The initial thought is that Canha might be hurt by his home park, as few consider RingCentral Coliseum – yes, I had to look it up – as a good hitter’s park. But lifetime, Canha has the same .431 SLG both home and away.
But in 2021, Canha had a .122 ISO at home and a .191 ISO in road games. Overall last year, Canha had an .827 OPS in road games. And that came with a .287 BABIP. In his career with the Mets, Michael Conforto had an .817 OPS and .297 BABIP in road games. Of course, Conforto hit better at home than he did on the road. Not every hitter thrives in Citi Field so it will be interesting to see how Canha performs in his new park and if he likes it better than his old stomping ground.
One last thing to consider with Canha is the belief by many that the Mets will still be in the market for an outfielder once the lockout ends. Right now, he’s the starting RF. It might be a coin flip if he’s in the starting lineup for Opening Day. For most teams, signing Canha to a 2/$26.5 million deal would guarantee him a starting job in the first year. But the Steve Cohen Mets are not most teams.
If you look at the price of a win on the free agent market as about $8 million, the Mets are valuing Canha as slightly over a 3-win player over the life of the contract. The ZiPS forecast has him at 2.0 fWAR in 2022. That’s good production for the outlay. Still, a 2-win player is the definition of an average starter. You need average starters. But if an above-average starter is out there and reasonably priced, it would still make sense to pull the trigger.
Before the start of the 2014 season, a study was done examining the previous 10 years to see what the breakdown for starters in the outfield for the Mets looked like. Here are the average games started for the top five:
OF#1 – 135 games
OF#2 – 98 games
OF#3 – 80 games
OF#4 – 59 games
OF#5 – 39 games
Last year Conforto had the most starts in the outfield for the Mets with 118, Dominic Smith was next with 114 and Kevin Pillar was third with 109. Sure, the hope is that the Mets enjoy better health in the upcoming season. But let’s not pretend that the team has ironmen in the other two outfield slots for 2022. Brandon Nimmo has missed multiple months in two of the past four years and Starling Marte generally misses a month per season.
My belief is that the Mets need SP more than another OF, one that’s influenced at least in part by the notion that there’s more to Smith than he showed last year. With that in mind, here’s my totally biased forecast for Canha:
.235/.366/.393, 13.1 BB%, 21.9 K% in about 375 PA.
He sure seems like a terrific 4th outfielder to me.
I don’t think the comp to Rusty Staub in 1973 is meaningful, in that it’s not relative to everyone else on the team and league. 1973 was a down year for Rusty (in previous seasons his OPS+ was 166, 139, 148, 137 . . . and then 118). So the Rusty of nostalgia — the Rusty we remember — is not the Rusty of 1973 (only 15 HRs).
That ’73 Mets team got 112 from Milner, 110 from Garrett (wildly underrated), and only 2 other players got in the 90s.
The overall team OPS+ was 83.
It was 94 in 2021 w/ 9 players above 100.
I’d be glad to get 118 from Canha. I like him at 400-450 ABs.
Actually wRC+ is relative. From the glossary:
“Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects. League average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.
wRC+ is park and league-adjusted, allowing one to to compare players who played in different years, parks, and leagues.”
So, Canha’s forecasted 118 wRC+ can be compared to Staub’s 121.
Noted, thanks.
Forget Rusty Staub comparison, how about a comparison to a recent high profile addition to the Mets?
Canha’s career average .244/.344/.431, 114 OPS+
.239/.341/.444 116 OPS+ That’s Curtis Granderson with the Mets during his 3.5 years
If Canha can stay as productive as his career average, he’s easily more than the 4th OF that people are making him out to be. I also get the playing time issue as he’s only eclipsed 600 PA once in his career so it’s possible he may not be as good when he’s out there 95% of the time instead of 75%. But i’d still rather put my money on Canha out there than Dominic Smith.
In my defense, I will say that I have a very high opinion about the importance of a 4th outfielder; I imagine a guy who plays a lot & is vital to the team’s success.
And I know I’m shallow, but as informed as I am about stats, I’m not going to love it if he’s hitting .213 in June — no matter how many walks he gets.
I don’t think too many players ever come to Citi and experience a power surge. Plugging him in as our everyday RF requires a degree of wishful thinking.
245/375/419 13.3 BB% 21.2 K%
It should be a solid year for Canha and produce a .794 OPS. He is a starter but the Mets should pursue other 4th outfielder because of injuries.
.245/.375/.395, 14 BB%, 25 K% in about 450 PA
I understand why sports writers want the Mets to sign another (OF) bat that hits from the right side, but it seems to me that we have plenty of options for playing the outfield right now. Marte, Canha, Nimmo, are the starters barring injuries; and maybe McNeil and/or Smith (barring trades). Not an exciting and/or lethal group I’ll admit, but why do people think the Mets need Freeman on this team? Pitching, pitching and more pitching is where the money should be spent on.
Without (at least) another quality SP, those pundits that have the Mets going to the World Series are just plain deluded.
Ideally, we can sign Jesse Winker and give up on the Dom Smith OF experiment. I’m sure the pitchers would agree. Winker would add punch and a higher average from the left side, more than replace Conforto in effectiveness at the plate, and a good outfielder.
The Mets will use all four outfielders equally… even a fifth.
Yes, add one more SP: Rodon, one of the As, or a one-year Zach Greinke? Buck should make any addition more productive, thorough intelligent usage.