One of the hardest things to do is to accurately rate your own players. When you watch a guy on a daily basis, you develop both favorites and non-favorites. All of us who watched Pete Alonso explode on the scene in 2019 would put him in the former category. How can you not like Alonso? It’s especially strong for those of us who watched the pre-Dave Kingman Mets, a team that was never awash with power hitters.
Alonso’s calling card is power and he’s won the Home Run Derby in each of the two seasons that competition has been held in his MLB career. Power is great, perhaps the single-most important thing for a hitter. But power’s not the only thing that matters for a player. Ideally, you have a five-tool player who excels at everything. Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper jumps to mind. Last year he hit .309 and notched a .615 SLG, thanks in large part to 35 HR. Harper also swiped 13 bases and got back to a positive UZR, with a 1.9 rating. It all added up to a 6.6 fWAR.
Alonso posted a 3.0 fWAR in 2021.
Much like with the discussion around Michael Conforto this time a year ago, 3-Win players are a very nice thing to have and teams should aim to hoard as many of them as possible. At the same time, we have to recognize the difference between a 3-Win player and a 6-Win guy. The four projections models on FanGraphs see Alonso putting in an fWAR between 3.4-4.0 in 2021. Here’s how all of our forecasters project Alonso for the upcoming season:
ATC — .258/.347/.524, 10.0 BB%, 22.1 K%
Marcel – .255/.343/.516, 9.8 BB%, 23.0 K%
RotoCh – .256/.342/.529. 10.0 BB%, 22.9 K%
Steamer – .258/.349/.535, 10.5 BB%, 21.7 K%
THE BAT – .264/.352/.525, 10.0 BB%, 21.3 K%
ZiPS — .259/.349/.532, 10.1 BB%, 23.3 K%
With just three years under his belt, and one of them being the shortened-Covid season, the computer models have pretty much zeroed in on the most-likely production from Alonso. The biggest difference is that Marcel has a .516 SLG compared to the .535 SLG from Steamer. Otherwise, AVG and OBP are both within 10 points, with BB% being within 0.7%. Even K% is nearly identical, with the biggest difference being 1.2%.
One of the big problems offensively with Alonso is that while he makes good contact for a power hitter, he’s below average when it comes to BABIP. Somewhere around .300 is normal for the league. But individual players simply have rates that can be consistently above or below that mark. In his three seasons with the Mets, Alonso has BABIPs of .280, .242 and .270, from 2019-21.
In three of the last four years, the aforementioned Conforto put up BABIPs of .289, .290 and .276 – yet he produced a .412 BABIP in 2020. If that year was 162 games rather than 60, there’s little doubt that Conforto would have seen his BABIP take a hit. Still, it likely would have been comfortably over .300 in a full season. It still would have been an outlier.
And that’s how we have to view Alonso in the BABIP world. He’s certainly capable of having an outlier season where the hits just fall in, much like Conforto’s 2020. But to predict Alonso to put up a BABIP much above his lifetime .272 mark is wishful thinking. Steamer forecasts a .270 BABIP, the low among the four projection systems on FanGraphs. THE BAT’s .281 projection is the highest.
Hey, Mallex Smith once put up a .366 BABIP so the hit gods can smile on anyone. But we have to distinguish between what might possibly happen and what’s likely to happen. It’s among the possibilities that Alonso puts up a .310 BABIP this year. But if someone set his over/under at a .295 BABIP and told you that your life depended on it, my hope is that you would take the under.
My belief is that Alonso will do better in 2022 than he did in 2021 not because of some jump in BABIP but rather with a better power output than he had a season ago. My totally biased forecast for Alonso listed below comes with a .272 BABIP:
.270/.348/.546, 8.7 BB%, 18.0 K%
Well, I kind of hate Pete Alonso. He’s so exceedingly dim. But most of that comes from when he opens his mouth, which is not really what we’re considering today.
I am not blind to his attributes.
To back up: after the weird season of 2020, I felt at a crossroads between Pete Alonso and Dom Smith. Who was the best 1B? Pete was overrated, I felt, and so bad in 2020, though obscured by some good numbers at the end (after the season was flushed). Meanwhile, Dom was incredible: loved all the doubles, which surprised me.
I didn’t know what was real (though Pete’s 2019 season looked good to me). I basically decided that 2021 would give me the information I needed. Let the best man win.
That is: This time a year ago, I was asking the question if Dom Smith might be the Mets best first baseman after all.
Well, Dom very simply did nothing to help the Mets win games in 2021. He was craptastic. Dom sleepwalked through the season and looked lost in the field and the batter’s box. Nice guy but: no fire. Meanwhile, Pete showed more focus at the plate. More grit. In 2020, he gave away so many ABs, and I think he cut down on that considerably. He tries really hard. He’s not nearly as good as he thinks he is, but that’s not a federal crime.
How good is he? He feels more like a #5 or #6 hitter than a truly good hitter. He might be Boog Powell. Very nice to have in the lineup. A HR is the best thing a hitter can do. I like Pete at the current salary, pre-FA, not sure I’d want to spend huge money on him. But there’s time for that decision yet. I like that he could hit .270-.275. I’d like to see the OBP rise; .350 seems low for a power hitter.
He still annoys me. But 50/120 is undeniable. So long as I don’t have to know his actual *thoughts* on things. Wants to be a leader but, sorry, no. He’s just a slugger.
Sidenote: the forecasters are becoming boringly standardized. Same, same, same. It’s all pretty bland after the computers mash it down to nothing. Safe, conservative, decidedly “inside the box.”
Would you rather have Alonso or Keith Hernandez in his prime at first? I would take Hernandez.
Keith, of course. Not remotely close.
One last thing on Pete:
I think he’s pretty automatic to give you 40 HR and 100 RBI.
The question I ask is: Can a guy give you 40/100 and still not be very good? I think the answer to that is . . . almost yes. So far, I’ve concluded that Pete is better than just counting numbers. Though, in 2020, he wasn’t.
Ultimately, I think he can hit.
Wow Jimmy, I want to agree with everything you wrote, and I want to go a step further.
Alonso’s best attribute is his name recognition in winning two HR Challenges and he’s cheap. Yes, he is a #5 or #6 hitter and he isn’t as good or intelligent as he thinks he is, simply the leader of the LFGM movement and the creator of an imaginary batting coach. The Mets best first base candidate wears number 28, and he’s the best all around hitter. So, my projection for Alonso: Tried to Cleveland Guardians for two MLB starting pitchers – one in the majors and one pretty close. Plus, you have Vientos and Baty on the way.
In the “better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late” category, I present #20 in your scorecard, Pete Alonso. Don’t wait a single minute and have something go wrong.
LOL, just saw it! *Traded to Cleveland…
Yikes. JD Davis at 1B? The guy who chant field or throw? The number of errant throws coming from our infield to 1B is quite troubling. Davis cant handle 1B.
I dont understand the Alonso hate. His 3 years of OPS+ and bWAR
147, 5.5
122, 0.6 (shortened season)
134, 4.2
Why on Earth you would trade a RoY, lock 40/100, 5 WAR guy who is the main power for the team to put a guy who cannot stay on the field basically because his not a complete player literally blows my mind. You want to trade Alonso for pitching? it better be in the deGrom level you are getting back.
If a team doesn’t give you what he’s worth, you keep him. But:
-you are overloaded in that position with more coming;
-you have a player that probably peaked and doubtful he will improve;
-you need to strengthen other areas, so who else do you have to offer that has value and has replacements available?
Too, Davis just needs to catch the ball at first base. Not much throwing needed.
The idea that Pete has peaked is foolish to me. He’s just entering his prime.
Yeah, he does make some dumb statements, but his power is something!
Prediction: .265/.340/.525
265 / 48 / 127 / .925
monster year ahead.
I would not trade Pete, personally.
I think he’s an asset.
Once the salary bumps up, that’s another story. But we’ll have time to make that assessment. Whatever we *think* now is irrelevant. He’ll let us know.
I don’t get much of what Alonso says. But I’m an old man, surely out of touch, so I try not to offer many opinions on that stuff these days. Not just with Pete either. I will leave it all to those who know better than me. Those kids these days and their slogans!!
I think his floor as a player is very good and his ceiling is higher than many think. How many first basemen are better hitters? Not as many as you think.
And I think he’s a worker and he wants to be better. Which is why I like that ceiling. All of the money stuff and what to do or not do with him someday is for when that day comes. I hope he’s a Met for his entire career. Because with Cohen in charge that will mean he has become a big star. If the Mets produce those now Steve’s not going to let some loose change effect decisions. How to fit players into a budget, that’s a problem for Yankees fans now.
They can have it.
Pete is still on the rise. The next three seasons will define his career. He may be a dope, but he can hit. A good #4 and even better #5, where he can protect a more clutch~hitting #4. Good teams still manage to find Pete’s holes in clutch situations.
.257/.346/.542 9.9 BB%, 23.7 K%
Alonso is the perfect clean up batter. He puts fannies in the seats. I don’t go to the kitchen to get a snack if he is coming up, no matter what the score is.
He is a hard worker and a sincere, generous “kid” that is immature and wears his heart on his sleeve.
He hits the ball so hard that it is surprisingly that his BABIP is below average. If he could have a better than average BABIP then it could raise his BA. Along with 45+ homeruns season then it could be possible for him to win the MVP. We can all dream.