Mets 2022 projections: Chris Bassitt

The beauty of the projection series is that there’s no order they have to be done in. However, generally all of these years it’s followed the pattern of alternating pitchers and hitters. Previously, four starting pitchers were done for the Mets. Fortuitously, the Mets just went out and traded for the final starting pitcher of their likely Opening Day roster. Thanks, Billy Eppler, for accomplishing this when you did!

Chris Bassitt walks into a nice situation. While he was an All-Star in 2021 and normally that would make him the subject of a lot of big expectations, Bassitt will likely miss most of that, as that attention will go to Max Scherzer, instead. And as for learning his new teammates, both Mark Canha and Starling Marte were with Bassitt in Oakland previously. Too, Bassitt says he already knows most of the player names because of their status in the game.

The Mets acquired him to be their third starter. Let’s see how the computer models forecast that Bassitt will perform in 2022:

ATC – 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.74 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9
Marcel – 3.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
RotoCh – 3.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Steamer – 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.65 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9
THE BAT – 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.65 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9
ZiPS – 3.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.48 K/9, 2.65 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9

For those of you who don’t like it when the projections forecast too similarly for a veteran player, you should appreciate what they have with Bassitt. It’s almost like there are two distinct groups. ATC, Steamer and THE BAT are the bears, while Marcel, RC and ZiPS are the bulls. And the divide seems to come from what they think his HR output will be, as they all have similar WHIP, K/9 and BB/9 numbers.

Bassitt’s HR/9 in the last four years has been: 0.8, 1.3 and 0.9 the last two seasons. In that span he’s allowed 13 HR in 198.2 at home and 33 HR in 213.1 IP in road parks. Citi Field may be a slight pitcher’s park but we should probably expect Bassitt’s HR/9 there to exceed what he’s allowed recently in Oakland. One other thing jumps out when looking at his home/road splits. Wins are a poor way to judge a pitcher but it’s at least interesting that despite a doubling of his HR rate, Bassitt has gone 17-6 on the road the past four years.

There were 129 pitchers in MLB last season who reached at least 100 IP. If we sort them by ERA, SP3 (those from 61-90) had ERAs ranging from 4.07 to 4.59, with 12 of those pitchers amassing an fWAR of 2.0 or greater. The three bears among our projection systems feel he’ll be an SP3 in ERA, while the three bulls have him as a mid-tier (ZiPS) or better SP2.

Since Bassitt turned in a 2.90 ERA over the combined 2020-21 seasons, maybe it’s difficult to see the projections with an ERA north of four and thinking that the Mets should be okay with that type of output. One thing to keep in mind is that all NL starters combined for a 4.22 ERA in 2021. Assuming the run environment is the same in 2022, the projection bears are saying that Bassitt will be a league-average SP.

Tylor Megill last year had the third-most starts of any Mets pitcher and he had a 4.52 ERA. The Mets most likely got an upgrade from that and a big upgrade if Bassitt performs like the projection bulls forecast. My opinion is that if Bassitt does indeed pitch like the bulls forecast, then you can make a serious push to re-sign him after the year is over, comfortable that his stuff translated outside of Oakland.

My totally biased projection for Bassitt is:

3.52 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.83 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9