Steve Cohen is the richest owner in baseball, a fact conspicuously acknowledged within the latest collective bargaining agreement with its new luxury tax tier endearingly dubbed the “Cohen Tax.” Cohen barely batted an eye at the target directly planted on him, though, acknowledging that the team is likely to go over it. The Mets’ spending this offseason largely fell in line with that thinking despite the bulk of it happening before the lockout began. Still, one aspect of the roster where the team certainly didn’t splurge as much as fans may have perhaps wanted was in the bullpen.
For all the Mets’ woes in 2021, the relief corps actually did quite well, all things considered. The unit put up 4.4 fWAR, good for 10th best in the majors last season. The good news is that four of their top five contributors are back for 2022. The bad news is that their second-best contributor, and lone dominant lefty, Aaron Loup has signed with the Angels.
| Name | WAR | Returning? |
|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | 2.0 | Yes |
| Aaron Loup | 1.5 | No |
| Trevor May | 0.5 | Yes |
| Seth Lugo | 0.4 | Yes |
| Trevor Williams | 0.3 | Yes |
The team really didn’t seem to be in on the top of the lefty-reliever market, instead opting to bring back 2020 Met Chasen Shreve and Alex Claudio to minor league contracts. There’s been much debate on whether or not a team actually needs a dedicated lefty in the bullpen, particularly if your relievers can handle right- and left-handed hitters, but it seems that the Mets are content to head into the season without a big name to fill the role.
It’s a good bet that the four returning pitchers from the table above, as well as recently-signed Adam Ottavino and returning righty Miguel Castro, are locks for the first six slots. The final spots in the bullpen are less clear, particularly since rosters are expanded to 28 until May 1st due to the abbreviated nature of Spring Training.
As the (relatively) most prominent lefty reliever in camp, and under normal circumstances, Shreve would seem to be a lock to head north with the team barring a completely catastrophic Spring Training performance. However, with the team seemingly not too concerned with signing a big-name lefty during free agency, you have to wonder how much stock they’ll put into handedness when paring down the roster. Additionally, Shreve is not on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move would need to be made for him to break camp with the team (ditto for Claudio).
It’s always precarious to put any stock into Spring Training performances, but it’s doubly so this year as there is and will be so little data to assess. The only one of the aforementioned relievers to seemingly struggle so far is May, but even then it’s been in a single inning and a single game. Comparatively, it’s interesting to see someone like Claudio having already made three appearances with three innings pitched. This would perhaps indicate that the team is interested in seeing what they have in him and dedicating what precious little time they have to assessing pitchers on the roster’s fringes.
If I had to guess, I’d peg the Mets as breaking camp with the following eight relievers on the roster (and I’ve included the Depth Charts fWAR predictions for each):
| Name | Proj fWAR |
|---|---|
| Edwin Díaz | 1.6 |
| Trevor May | 0.6 |
| Adam Ottavino | 0.5 |
| Seth Lugo | 0.4 |
| Miguel Castro | 0.2 |
| Drew Smith | 0.0 |
| Trevor Williams | 0.0 |
| Chasen Shreve | -0.1 |
Did they add enough? That remains to be seen. It’s hard to get mad at the team for not putting more money into the BP when it’s such a volatile component of the roster, particularly when they’ve spent so much this offseason. Perhaps they knew something that we didn’t regarding the top-end free-agent relievers, but the more likely scenario is that they’re confident in both the pieces that they currently have and their ability to add pieces during the season. While the projections are clearly not bullish in terms of the unit performing to the same standard as last season, it could be argued that the bullpen was already in a strong position at the start of the offseason despite the loss of Loup.
Who do you envision in the Mets’ opening day bullpen?
They’ve got one easy move with the 40-man, putting Lucchesi on the 60-day IL. And there’s always guys to cut – the Patrick Mazeika brigade, if you will.
With the extra two players in April, my guess is the Mets carry nine relievers, with Claudio being the extra guy to your list.
If they do end up carrying nine relievers, agreed on Claudio. They seem to be taking an extended look at him.
One interesting available arm is JA Happ. Happ last year got killed by the long balls but Citifield can help. The year before Happ was outstanding against righties and lefties. At 39, Happ may hold out for a starting gig, but would be the type of pitcher that can succeed in shorter spurts while offsetting the lefties and handling righties too, if he can accept a bullpen role.
The only free agent reliever that Eppler signed to a major league contract was Ottavino at $4M to replace Familia who signed with Phillies at $6M. Familia is the better reliever. Eppler passed on premiere lefties in Loup (2/17M) and Chafin (2/13M) but he sign Shreve to a minor league contract. Shreve is arguably better that Familia and slightly worst than Chafin. Eppler’s philosophy for the bullpen, like you said, is a volatile component and he doesn’t want to spend the money on minor pieces for the bullpen. Eppler did a good job.
The bullpen should break camp with ten relievers because of the expanded April roster. Walker and Carrasco have not pitched yet and may not be ready so Williams might be in the starting rotation. Your 8 relievers are good. The Mets could break camp with 2 or 3 other relievers so as to look at them better with more time.
I would have liked to seen the Mets acquire a really good reliever. There is still time for a trade or even a pickup from the waiver wire. I don’t feel so bad about Loup because he will float back to earth this year
I thing the Met pen is short at least one big arm. Should Diaz falter, closing out games will be very concerning.
This is a good point. Although I’ve mostly moved into the school of thought that you don’t necessarily need a defined “closer,” I don’t see anyone else in that BP that could step in cleanly for Diaz should he go down. Maybe Lugo if he can regain his form (and stay healthy himself).
When planning a roster, a front office doesn’t plan for two closers. Diaz is statistically a good closer. If the front office doesn’t have confidence in him then they have should’ve replace in the off-season. Like any team, if the closer falters, the team falters. In 2021, the Mets didn’t have a problem. The front office didn’t have a sub closer in 2012 and shouldn’t have a sub closer in 2022. Diaz will be fine.
The division and World Series champion Braves just added Jansen and his 38 saves to a pen that has closer Smith with his 37 saves. The AL Central champ White Sox have two elite closers in their pen. The Dodgers have fielded teams with pens that included multiple pitchers that have excelled in the closer role, as have the Yankees. This is a luxury available to high payroll teams. The Met pen as constructed is solid but far from intimidating.
Lugo is a key wild card. If he can return to top form, the sky’s the limit, even closing games that Diaz can’t. But if he has permanently regressed… he’s lost to us. I also don’t feel great about Trevor May. I think Casto can be very effective if used in the right spots, and I trust Buck will find them better than Rojas, who was way too automatic with his pen. Williams will be valuable, if last year is any indication. I’m sorry, but I cannot agree about Familia… just not dependable when the chips were really down. Perfect for the Phillies.
Made a similar point in a response above regarding Lugo. If he regains form, the top-end of the BP looks pretty lethal.
Don’t sleep on Drew Smith. He is my dark-horse to have a Loup-like season.