The new Steve Cohen-era Mets made two quick, decisive moves last year that maybe they’d like to have back. They signed free agent James McCann to a 4-year deal and after trading for Francisco Lindor, they signed him to a 10-year extension before he played a single game for the club. We’ll save McCann for another day. Lindor, meanwhile, ended up with a more-lucrative deal than any of the other heralded shortstops that were scheduled to be free agents this past offseason. And on top of that, Lindor didn’t exactly set the world on fire his first year in Queens.
For the first two months of the season in 2021, Lindor was in the running for worst-performing regular in MLB. After the first game of the doubleheader on May 27, Lindor sat with a .178/.288/.261 line in 187 PA. Obviously, the hits weren’t falling in but even more alarming was the fact he had just 7 XBH in those 187 PA.
But from the second game of the DH on the 27th until the end of the season, Lindor posted a .258/.341/.492 line in 337 PA. That .833 OPS was an exact match for what Lindor did for Cleveland in 2015-2020. But because the beginning was so poor, Lindor’s full-season numbers don’t measure up. You hear people say he was a disappointment last year. But the final two-thirds of the season, when healthy, Lindor performed almost exactly like the back of his baseball card said he would.
Still, we have a final line with a .734 OPS, combined with a disappointing .750 OPS in the truncated 2020 season. It’s the type of performance that might make the computer models underestimate his performance in 2022. Here’s what the projection systems forecast for Lindor this season:
ATC — .256/.336/.452, 10.0 BB%, 16.9 K%
Marcel – .252/.326/.436, 9.2 BB%, 17.8 K%
RotoCh – .251/.328/.446, 9.8 BB%, 17.4 K%
Steamer – .253/.330/.465, 9.6 BB%, 17.2 K%
THE BAT – .257/.334/.452, 9.6 BB%, 17.1 K%
ZiPS — .263/.337/.467, 9.4 BB%, 17.4 K%
From the ages of 23-25, Lindor had a SLG% of at least .500 and an OPS of at least .850. And now not one of these systems expect him to top a .465 SLG or an .804 OPS in his age-28 season. As expected, the simplest model has him performing the worst. Marcel places the most emphasis on what a player has done recently, so it’s no shock that forecast has Lindor achieving just a .762 OPS. But what’s surprising is that RotoChamp, which is usually the most aggressive forecast, has Lindor with just a .774 OPS, the second-worst among our six entries. The four systems on FanGraphs all see a better season from Lindor but still nothing like his pre-Covid year peak.
One of the goals that the projection series here at Mets360 has is to incorporate things that the computer models don’t, hoping that will lead to a better-informed forecast. It seems clear to me that the results from 2020 need to be heavily discounted and it seems that the models are not using an appropriate hedge. And while it’s reasonable to believe that’s something the models should do better in reality, one thing that’s not appropriate for them to do – but falls exactly in the wheelhouse of our projections – is to apply a discount for a poor season from a star after joining the Mets. Here are some examples, with the two numbers being their OPS in their first and second years in Queens:
Carlos Beltran – .744, .982
Bobby Bonilla – .779, .874
George Foster – .676, .708
Curtis Granderson – .714, .821
Jason Bay went backwards in his second season but we have to consider the concussions. The biggest counter to the theory is Gary Carter, who had his best year as a Met his first season in Queens. But he was a catcher on the wrong side of 30 who saw time take its toll on his production.
My recollection was that Foster was better in his second season with the Mets than he was. Still, it’s not like a 32-point increase in OPS is anything to be dismissed lightly. Maybe Granderson doesn’t belong, because his contract was not anything like the others previously discussed, plus he had already played in NYC. And, for completeness, mid-season acquisitions Keith Hernandez and Mike Piazza both performed well in their initial stint in Queens.
There’s not enough of a sample size to make any solid conclusions. But there’s at least some anecdotal evidence that there’s an adjustment period necessary for those with a big contract in Queens. Perhaps it’s nothing but grasping at straws. But my opinion is that it’s more likely that outside influences like these come into play, rather than a guy at age 27 simply losing the ability to hit for power. Here’s my totally biased forecast this year for Lindor:
.278/.342/.514, 8.3 BB%, 14.0 K%
Still only 28 years old, Lindor should be in his prime. He probably put too much pressure on himself in NYC with the big contract, and he did do much better after his first couple of months here. So I expect some improvement in his overall numbers this coming year.
.275/.340/.495, 9.0 BB%, 15.5 K%
I think i mentioned this last year when we signed him to that stupid extension, but Lindor’s main value comes from being a grinder. His defense is pretty good (although we didn’t really witness that last year) and his bat is decent but forgettable, so the way he racks up counting stats and WAR because of he’s able to stay healthy and play everyday.
He led the the league in PA in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Of course he comes to the Mets and in his first season, has his first significant time missed in the majors.
But this projection is about his bat, and he’s only surpassed 118 OPS+ once in his career with a 104 and 101 mark the last 2 years. I’m probably jaded because i don’t like the contract, but i’m going to say that continues and he finishes with a 100 OPS+ this year. Maybe he’ll be able to bounce back in the following years when Manfred continues to meddle and limit game strategy and bans the shift.
Hard not to agree with Brian on most things, and these projections are notorious difficult to manage. But:
1. If Lindor only Ks 14% of the time, it should lead to a big year. Even the 17% projections from the others might be a tad unrealistic (league average over 20%). Assuming he has more runners on base in front of him, he may feel pressed to drive them home… swing more late in the count. If Pete starts out hot, Lindor can relax, remain selective.
2. I do think the .278 BA is closer to realistic than those in the .250s.
With runners on base, especially a base-stealer in Marte, Lindor should get plenty more of fastballs than last season.
3. Regarding the pressure on Lindor’s shoulders… so much has been shifted to other players. Instead of carrying the team, he is much more into a group setting now. He has Max, Pete, Jake, Nimmo, Escobar, and Marte to share the load, and that should help him narrow his focus and have a much steadier year.
I think there may be more pressure on McNeil, Dom and JD than on Lindor… money notwithstanding. Even Cano has some pressure.
The fans know they have Lindor for the long haul… those “bubble” players are of very high fan interest. Might be the most interesting Mets season in a long while…
Lindor: .275 / .340 / .475 / 26 HRs / 90 runs
.268 / .355 / .490 / 33hr / 108 rbi / 112 runs
.261/.331/.462 8.8 BB% 16.3 K%
Lindor got his contract extension because Cohen wanted to make a splash in the media after trading for him. The trade was good but the extension could have waited. This offseason there was plethora of free agent all star shortstops to choose from. It was a buyers market and the Mets, by signing Lindor early, set the market in money and years. Lindor is very good but not that good to warrant his contract.
I’ll be rooting for him, though, to exceed my projection.
So much of the productivity of a number 3 batter lies in the table setters in front of him. No better example than (pardon the ancient reference) Mickey Rivers and Willie Randolph in front of Don Mattingly. You don’t drive in 135 runs without someone on to drive in. Nimmo and Marte have the talent to set the table. If Nimmo is hurt, a reasonable expectation, then we have to hope the McNeil rebounds and takes his spot in the order. Then if there is protection behind Lindor, and protection behind Alonso in the 4 hole, then you can’t pitch around these guys. Last year there were so many holes in the lineup that seeing a strike was rare and when you swing at junk, so goes the results. I look for Lindor to hit .285 in this revamped lineup, with 25 HR and 90 RBI.
275/340/490 with 28 HR. I hope that’s low since he’ll have a better lineup around him.