It’s impossible to draw any conclusions from one game. But coming into the season, it seemed like the Nationals replaced the Marlins as the team you need to beat up on in order to be successful in the NL East. And Opening Day did nothing to refute that idea. It’s Juan Soto and a bunch of guys who were good three (or more) years ago for the Nats. Having absolutely hated that model when the Mets used it – Adrian Gonzalez! James Loney! Chris Young! Daisuke Matsuzaka! – it’s hard not to feel sorry for the fans in D.C. Then you remember they won the World Series in 2019 and then it’s easy to lose any sympathy.
Tylor Megill looked terrific last night. Did he look terrific because of his pitches or did he look that way because instead of Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner – he faced Lane Thomas, Maikel Franco and Alcides Escobar? Franco’s had success against the Mets and Escobar was one of the “relentless” Royals from 2015. But that trio went 1-11 on Thursday.
Adrenaline helped Megill reach 99 mph in the first inning. He also made some nice pitches with his off-speed stuff. The idea isn’t to scoff at Megill’s outing. It certainly wasn’t an advantageous spot to be in – being thrown in last minute to be the Opening Day starter. Yet Megill passed the weird audition with flying colors.
Mets fans were dealt a kidney punch when news hit that Jacob deGrom would need to refrain from throwing for four weeks. The absolute best-case scenario is a return in six weeks and it’s likely to be 10 or more weeks before we see him pitch in the majors. Having Max Scherzer will cushion that blow in a way the team simply couldn’t survive last year. Additionally, the Megill from his first seven starts (2.04 ERA) will be a welcome sight, rather than the pitcher who allowed 15 HR in his final 54.1 IP and had a 6.13 ERA.
Ron Darling during the game last night charitably described Megill’s second-half swoon as a young pitcher hitting the wall. There’s really no reason for a broadcaster to say anything else on Opening Day. It’s possible that Darling’s right. It’s also possible that all of the breaks went Megill’s way in his first seven games and the luck ran out after that.
In his first seven games in the majors, Megill limited batters to a .270 BABIP and they had a .212/.278/.318 line against him. It’s not hard for a pitcher to look good when the hits aren’t falling in and the other team manages just a .106 ISO. For a comparison, when deGrom looked like the best pitcher any of us had ever seen in 2021, opposing hitters had a .113 ISO.
In his final 11 starts of the year, opponents had a .321 BABIP against Megill and they slashed .282/.332/.559 against him in 54.1 IP. He was equally “unlucky” in the ending stretch as he was “lucky” in the first seven starts. But when the entire league has a .277 ISO against you – that doesn’t have anything to do with luck. For 11 games, other teams – and remember, this included pitchers – essentially slugged like Max Muncy against Megill. Muncy, with a .278 ISO, finished sixth in the majors in the category among qualified hitters.
The Mets didn’t have any choice but to use Megill last year. This time around, at least so far, they do. They could have used David Peterson or Trevor Williams. But they picked Megill and he justified the decision.
Another thing to note in Megill’s hot start to 2021. In those seven games, he faced the Braves three times when they were under .500 and he also had two starts against the dismal Pirates. Megill also pitched well in that stretch against strong teams in the Brewers and Blue Jays. But it’s easier to put up numbers when five of the seven games are against teams with losing records.
Young pitchers improve and it’s certainly a possibility that Megill was pitching on fumes at the end of the year. Still, we shouldn’t think he’s a competent MLB starter because of five shutout innings against the Nationals. There’s nothing wrong with pitching well against one of the weaker teams in the league. But let’s hold the excitement until he does it consistently against better clubs. And it looks like he’ll definitely get the chance to do that in the next two months or so.
5 innings against a weak team (albeit with a great 1-2 punch in that line-up) is the epitome of a small sample. However…if the Mets get this version of Tylor for the entire season, it could be franchise changing.
Reasons to be guardedly optimistic about Megill: the way he handled Soto was terrific; his velocity was up from what it was in his first half last year; his continued poise, even as deGrom’s replacement on opening day.
No one is saying he’s a #1, 2 or 3 starter for the Mets. But I’ll take him at #5.
Sorry, but I’m going to make a very unpopular comment. I predict Tylor Megill will get shut down for TJ surgery by the All-Star break. His delivery putting too much strain on his arm, his increased velocity, and his desire to prove himself is a dangerous combination. As some of you know, I am something of an amateur pitching disciple. I was a pitcher, then coached pitchers and have read many books on the topic. Megill’s delivery reminds me of several other pitchers who I accurately predicted would blow out their arms- Stephen Strasburg, Nate Eovaldi, John Lackey, Josh Johnson, Jake Peavy, Kevin Brown. When you watch Scherzer, deGrom Tom Seaver or Mariano Rivera, there is a fluidness to their delivery that allows the legs, back and arm to all work together and take on equal load. When you come across your body like the above named pitchers and Megill, you put too much strain on your elbow. I hope I’m wrong because I really like this kid.
Darling (i think) commented that Megill has simplified his delivery and motion this year which is hard to do for a big framed pitcher like him. Something about very concise and easy mechanics. For what it’s worth.
I really like Megill as a reliever.
I enjoyed Megill’s pitching last night, especially the strikeout of Sota. He shows alot of poise for an unexperienced pitcher. He was thrust into a difficult situation last year and also this year. Right now he is rotation depth. He’s not some kind of knight in shining armor. It would be unfair to him for the fans to think that. In the future he could develop into a #4 or #5. I’m rooting for him to be that or more.
Just looking at the stuff the kid has, one has to be optimistic about Megill. Last year he was cool and calm and threw easy gas. Last night he picked up a few notches. I said after last season that Megill is can’t miss, and this nice easy start just makes me want to say it again.
He has the best demeanor, shows upper 90’s gas that overpowers hitters (kind of like Zach Wheeler) and has great command. What’s not to like? He will be a major contributor this year.