One of the things lost in the shuffle as the Mets have gotten off to a terrific start is the fact that they’re doing it with two of their expected five starting pitchers on the injured list. Jacob deGrom is out for the foreseeable future but Taijuan Walker should be activated within two weeks, if not sooner. Last year, it would have been manna to have a starting pitcher being activated. But this year’s replacements have done a super job and there’s no obvious candidate to demote once Walker returns.
It’s probably safe to say that it’s going to be either Tylor Megill or David Peterson. Megill was the first choice for injury replacement and he took deGrom’s Opening Day start. Peterson came on in relief when Walker was removed from his first start and he’s filled Walker’s spot the past two starts, too. My belief is that most people will expect Megill to remain in the rotation and for Peterson to go … somewhere.
We don’t know exactly when Walker will return. What we do know is that all MLB clubs will have to remove two players from their roster once the calendar turns to May. Additionally, there will be a limit of 13 pitchers starting May 1. The Mets currently have 14 pitchers on their roster, so they will have to remove at least one reliever.
An outsider – okay, me – would think it would be an easy decision and remove Robinson Cano and Joely Rodriguez from the roster. But there are complications for making either of those moves. Some think that the money owed Cano will keep him from being cut, despite his woeful .533 OPS and .097 ISO. But it seems to me that the concern over clubhouse chemistry will keep Cano on the team past May 1 more than any dollar amount owed to him. Cano and Starling Marte are friends and some will want to credit Cano for Francisco Lindor’s hot start.
And while Rodriguez seems to me nothing more than Scott Rice 2.0, it’s clear that someone in the organization – likely GM Billy Eppler – thinks he’s more than that. Even if Eppler has second thoughts about the trade, it seems likely he wants to give Rodriguez more time to prove himself than just one month.
And if Rodriguez’ spot on the MLB roster is secure – there’s less need to carry Peterson as a third lefty out of the pen. Plus, to keep Peterson in the pen, they would need to cut two relievers to get to the 13-reliever limit. If Rodriguez stays, then Sean Reid-Foley seems to be in a bad spot. The Mets kept Trevor Williams over Peterson at the start of the year so it seems unlikely they would reverse that decision now. Of course, Williams is getting a spot start today without the chance to really build up his stamina with just two appearances and 1.2 IP in 15 games.
Does a poor outing in a spot start put Williams’ spot on the roster in jeopardy? It’s certainly possible but to me that would be a poor way to treat a guy who pitched well for the Mets last year and really hasn’t been put in a position to succeed by his manager so far in 2022.
But let’s put aside the idea of Peterson moving to the pen when Walker returns. Instead, let’s see if he should get the nod to stay in the rotation over Megill. Let’s compare both pitchers and what they’ve done in three appearances for the Mets this season:
TM – 16.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 7.5 K/BB
DP – 14.0 IP, 0.64 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 2.0 K/BB
Megill has a slight advantage in innings and WHIP and a huge advantage in strikeout/walk ratio. Peterson has a solid lead in ERA, helped no doubt by facing the Diamondbacks twice. One thing not shown in the above numbers is the type of contact that opposing batters are making off the two pitchers. With the caveat of small sample to go along with lack of diversity in opponents, Peterson has gotten soft contact 28.9% of the time, compared to 13% of the time for Megill. So, while Megill is thriving with strikeouts, Peterson makes up for it by getting more weak grounders and easy pop-ups.
All things being equal, a strikeout is preferable to other outs. But unlike recent Met teams, one doesn’t hold its breath when a ball that should be an out is hit by the other team. There’s a concern with Lindor’s throws but essentially when a routine ball is hit to short, Lindor is going to make the play. And neither Lucas Duda is in the outfield nor Wilmer Flores is in the infield to make a batted ball an adventure.
So, perhaps there’s a small preference from what they’ve produced to date for Megill. But sometimes there’s an advantage to being a different pitcher than others on the roster. The combination of Peterson being a lefty, combined with his weak-contact approach, gives a different look than the fireballing righty of Megill.
My preference would be for the strikeouts. But if the Mets want to have two lefty relievers in the pen, it’s not a huge leap to think that they would prefer one lefty in the rotation, too. Fans generally make a big deal out of wanting to have a lefty starter. Will the Showalter/Eppler Mets feel the same?
It will be enlightening to see how the Mets handle both the return of Walker as well as the cut downs on May 1. Neither Megill nor Peterson deserves a demotion and it’ll be tough not to feel sorry for whichever player draws the small stick. Ditto for Luis Guillorme and Travis Jankowski, the two position players who have to sweat out May 1.
There’s one other thing to consider. According to FanGraphs, Dominic Smith has two options available. Smith has been hitting even worse than Cano and he’s clearly been hurt by Showalter’s decision to use the DH spot for as many people as he has. Smith needs playing time and it might be the best thing for him to go to Triple-A and rake.
boy it’s super hard to imagine Smith getting sent down. but Jankowski is a good fit for this roster, and Guillorme is the only viable backup SS. A Smith/Davis straight platoon at DH with each getting 1 or 2 starts a week at 3b/LF/1b would maximize their usage and get them going a bit. Cano is really just taking up a spot on the roster and I don’t know if they can justify that for chemistry reasons.
SRF is definitely gone. And if it was me, I’d release Cano. Nothing wrong with 3 lefties in the pen. In fact I believe Atlanta and San Fran both had that available last year and it seemed to work fine for them.
I would like to see the Mets drop Cano.
I do agree that the money is less of a big deal than his stature in the clubhouse. Just because it can’t be measured on a spreadsheet doesn’t mean is doesn’t exist. With so many strikes against him, 39, PEDs, the year off, the burden of proof was/is on Robinson and he hasn’t made the case.
I 100% agree with the decision to give him full support and the opportunity to play in the early going. This is a 2,600+ hit guy and he is respected. The other players see and care and take note.
Wearing the manager’s hat, it comes down to usefulness & flexibility. Cano, Smith, JD are all severely limited players. Jankowski, Guillorme are nice pieces to have and huge assets on the field. If I’m Buck, I can lose Cano & not miss a beat. Down the road — maybe soon — either Dom or JD gets traded for whatever. JD can’t hit a real good ML fastball and doesn’t lift enough balls; Dom is in a trance — again — but I do think he’s an okay hitter, probably, hopefully.
I love how Jankowski fits the needs of this club, a very useful guy for Buck to have at his disposal: the glove, the speed, the ability to lay down a bunt. Can the Mets risk letting him go via DFA and resigning him to AAA? Is he the kind of talent that is easily replaced?
Guillorme is backup SS & 3B & 2B and, again, feels very useful.
Smith & JD are both limited players and seem redundant. Pick one, move the other? If not now, come July/August. I currently favor Smith over JD, but it’s with a shrug.
I still see Megill is a valuable piece in the bullpen. The right demeanor. I’d drop Peterson down to AAA and give him regular starts. He’s been great, of course. No need to rush Walker back.
Joely isn’t going anywhere and he’s pitched reasonably well after the horrowshow in Philly. I believe that Buck, like any intelligent manager, prefers having more than one LHP in the pen to neutralize certain types of hitters. It’s a specific weapon and a specific kind of asset.
Given a choice, my philosophical belief is that a bench should have guys who do one thing extremely well, rather than all-around decent players who don’t particularly excel anywhere.
Reid-Foley goes down. I like him to ride the shuttle this season.
But also: We’ve got more than a week to see what’s what. These things have a way of working themselves out.
What a brilliant topic to discuss Brian, thanks for doing this. I confess in the hectic world that totally escaped me. Some tough decisions indeed.
I dont think its fair to blame Buck for Dom not hitting. Smith remains locked into success via “luck”. We see pretty much little production without the BABIP, which is record setting bad at .286 right now. Of course its a very small sample size with 30 PAs, but hes not getting the luck he needs to be successful. Certainly doesnt deserve to be playing every day – that said, Id unconditionally release Cano and alternate DH between Smith and Davis. Cano sucks. I dont think Jankowski can be sent down right now. Ill take him all day every day over Smith in the OF.
In terms of trust, It’s painfully obvious Buck has zero faith, actually probably negative faith in Peterson.
70 pitches, 5.2 IP, only given up 1 run and was ahead by 2, weak Arizona lineup. Yanks him
Meanwhile Megill had already given up 4 runs against a more powerful Giants lineup, was over 80 pitches, in a tie game, Buck lets him complete the 6th inning.
I’m not sure Peterson could do anything, even a no-hitter, to save his rotation spot when Walker comes back, it seems evident Buck’s mind has already been made.
Buck even called him “pAterson” postgame, so I take your point.
Let’s start the chant. Cano needs to go, Cano needs to go. Let’s get the roster right. We could win the division with a poor bullpen, but it could really hurt us in the post season. Trade Davis for a relief pitcher and send Smith to AAA. He needs to wake up.
I totally get it that the teammate view of Cano is completely different than the fan view. But the reality is that this is a good team, with a good bench, and that made it a must for him to show some signs of life in April give the unique roster issues resulting from the strike. I believe Reid-Foley is out of options and will almost certainly be grabbed by someone if they try to pass him through waivers. It may not be great or fair for players performing well, but it’s a good thing having tough personnel choices….just avoid losing quality players for nothing.
I’m with TJ. I let Trevor Williams take Peterson’s spot and send Dom Smith and Peterson down. The Mets are giving Cano until June – as per Showalter – if the hamstring holds up. Need to stay in him to run hard…
Clearly Cano is the weakest link..chemistry schremistry. I don’t believe he’s worth his shoelaces in the clubhouse or in the field. The old guy just can’t play no mo’. He knew it, which is why he juiced! Duh!
Reid-Foley, sorry. Buh-bye.
I know as much as I know anything, that Megill is the real deal. I like Peterson too, but he ain’t no Megill, who’s a horse who cannot but attain main starting pitcher status. Peterson, meanwhile, looks really good here and there. But I’m afraid, and I watched him pitch in college where I was living, that he is a Stephen Matz… one thing goes wrong and he tumbles down a rabbit hole. Just cannot be trusted start after start… mental weakness.
That said, I keep Peterson and let go RF and JRod, or even Trevor May before I give up on Peterson completely. May blows… sorry to say.
The only way Peterson should go down is if the braintrust think he is better off starting every fifth day… otherwise, he can succeed in various roles in Queens.
Meanwhile, the time is inching closer when we will all have to come clean on Dom Smith… JD is clearly the better hitter, and the Mets are stacked from the left side already.
Package Dom and one of two more and get quality RP… I’d live with that. I know he can play, just not that well, and let him do it for another team where he might fit.
Down the road, if the Mets can get Ketel Marte for 2B, they’d be really scary… McNeil becomes Chris Taylor-like swiss army knife.
Peterson rotation spot comes up Wednesday. Will Walker be ready? They should have him do a rehabb start to stretch him out. It will gives the Mets more time to decide between Megill or Peterson. SRF is the likely candidate for the May cut. He has an option.
Cano looks terrible and he doesn’t have a position. He is deserving to be released.
Jankowski brings speed and defensive and he is performing. He has 0 options
Guillorme brings only defense. He has 1 option so maybe Cano will be spared. Escobar would be the emergency shortstop. I used spotrac.com for the options.
So Peterson or Megill, SRF and Guillorme will will be optioned by May 1.
There is one week to decide and something could change.
I truly will become convinced that the Mets are serious if/when they drop Cano.