From 2015-2019, the BABIP for all of baseball on an annual basis ranged from .296 (’18) to .300 (’16 & ’17.) But in 2020 it dipped to .292 for the year. It was easy to dismiss that, as it was only a 60-game season. However, it was .292 again in 2021. Now, here in the early part of 2022, we see the BABIP of the MLB universe at .282 after 27,438 PA. A full season will have over 181,000 PA so there’s certainly time for the cumulative BABIP to rise. Yet if nothing else, it’s something to keep in mind.
Meanwhile, the Mets are bucking the trend. They actually lead the majors with a .308 mark, one of just six teams in the majors with a .300 BABIP. If we go down to .290, there are only 13 teams to reach that mark. The Diamondbacks are bringing up the rear with a .229 (!!!) BABIP. No team is close to being that bad, although four other teams have a mark in the .250s, including the 14-11 Astros with a .252 BABIP.
Let’s look at the individual Mets to see how they’re doing in the category. We’ll also include their lifetime mark as the second number.
Mark Canha – .438 vs .291
Jeff McNeil – .378 vs .327
Travis Jankowski – .346 vs .317
Dominic Smith – .344 vs .303
Eduardo Escobar – .333 vs .292
Tomas Nido – .333 vs .266
Pete Alonso – .293 vs .274
J.D. Davis – .286 vs .338
Brandon Nimmo – .283 vs .342
Luis Guillorme – .276 vs .309
Starling Marte – .271 vs .342
Francisco Lindor – .266 vs .292
James McCann – .225 vs .309
Our expectation is that there should be fairly equal numbers of players essentially matching their lifetime BABIPs as there are those exceeding career numbers as well as those falling short. Let’s use 25 points as our basis for essentially matching. So, if a player has a lifetime .300 BABIP, he’ll be included as essentially matching if his 2022 BABIP is in the .275-.325 range. It’s a higher number due to the relatively few number of PA the hitters have at this stage of the season. Here’s how our 13 hitters break down into the three categories:
Exceeding – Canha, McNeil, Jankowski, Smith, Escobar, Nido
Matching – Alonso
Lagging – Davis, Nimmo, Guillorme, Marte, Lindor, McCann
There’s a perfect symmetry here, with six exceeding and six lagging their lifetime BABIPs. But it’s far from what we expected with the assumption there would be equal representation in the three categories. Is that good or bad for the Mets? It’s impossible to tell at this point. But if we look at the guys who’ve logged a fair number of PA, it looks like Canha, McNeil and Escobar are due to come back to earth, while Nimmo, Marte and Lindor have some good fortune awaiting them.
And maybe overall that’s a good thing. If Nimmo (146 wRC+) and Lindor (125 wRC+) have put up the numbers they’ve had while underperforming in BABIP – maybe the guys who are lagging will improve more than the guys who are currently exceeding will ultimately drop.
Perhaps the most interesting BABIP number belongs to Alonso. After putting up full-season numbers of .280, .242 and .274 in the category previously, Alonso has his highest mark ever with the .293 BABIP he currently sports. While it’s certainly nice to see him with a mark over the league average, it seems like most of us would prefer it if he went back to hitting for more power. This year, Alonso has a .183 ISO. His lifetime ISO was .286 coming into this season.
Alonso has driven in runs with singles to the opposite field so no doubt some of you are ok with what he’s produced this year overall. But he has a 124 wRC+ in 2022, compared to a 136 wRC+ from 2019-2021. And before you say that Alonso’s numbers are down because offense is down so far in 2022, know that wRC+ is park and league adjusted, which allows you to compare it to other seasons on an equal footing.
Meanwhile, Smith doesn’t have the PA that Alonso does so we have to really take his numbers with a grain of salt. From what we’ve seen so far, it’s great to see the elevated BABIP. But the .065 ISO leaves a lot to be desired. It certainly doesn’t help that he went 12 games and 30 PA without an extra-base hit. But in his last 24 PA he has 3 XBH. Hopefully that’s the type of power he brings to the table the rest of the way.
The Alonso story is worth discussing. As I have said earlier, he is clearly a better hitter this year, striking out less, driving in runs with more variety and in some key spots.
The slowdown in homers does not alarm me at all. It’s a matter of a quarter inch on the barrel. But more than that, I believe it due to a variety of reasons.
1. The ball definitely seems deader.
2. The cold weather can’t help.
3. The early season games are less likely to provide abundance of HRs.
In the end, if Alonso hits 38 HRs with 120 RBIs at a higher BA, I’m thrilled. Of course he can hit 45-50, but at what cost? The bigger swing provides more holes in the zone for opposing pitchers to exploit, creates more chasing, and often the team suffers from rallies ending sooner and runners being left stranded.
I like where Pete is headed this season… he’s becoming a mature hitter. The man hits the ball very hard, and that should keep his BABIP elevated.
^+1
I’m with you Wobbit.
I side with Wobbit as well. While the HR are down, hes still making a killing with RBI. Ill exchange more RBI on doubles for few RBI and more HR. I think Pete ends woith something like 35/110 this year, which I take all day every day. It is clear that the team as a whole, to this juncture, is scoring more runs via many paths than the bankrupt model of Alderson. As a whole, the Mets are a bigger scoring threat becaue they can do it different ways. The 9th inning against Philly showed, HR power, base running, hit ’em where they aint, good singles hitting. Keep the line moving. Occasional killer power. And it shows that being able to score runs by being a complete team is a much better approach.
Back to the original sentiment in the story. The discrepency between numbers, say BABIP and OPS tells me we are still in the high noise part of the story, and that more ABs will restore things – Dom will either begin to rise fast on OPS or his BABIP will fall. Same with Pete. The BABIP should lead to a rise in his OPS, unless he has become a different hitter (as Wobbit discusses).
Alonso has played in all 28 games the Mets have played so far. After 28 games last year, Alonso had 5 HR just like he does this year. He finished last year with 37 HR, which certainly bodes well for him finishing with 35 HR this season.
But Alonso also had a .333 BABIP last year after 28 games. He finished with a .274 mark in the category.