The Mets have played 33 games, which is 20% of their schedule. They look like a pretty good team, unlike last year’s over-achievers who were doing it with a handful of bench players enjoying unsustainable two-week stretches. This time last year we were wondering how the team would look once its regulars got healthy and started producing at career numbers. This year, the offense has been mostly healthy and no one is in the discussion for worst regular in baseball.
A GM should always be looking for ways to improve the club. Traditionally, teams wait until the deadline to make moves and more often than not those moves are to improve the bullpen. It’s not to say that it’s always a reliever. Just last year the Mets traded for Javier Baez and he was terrific. It’s just that the 2021 Mets needed more than that. Possibly even a reliever, especially since all the high-leverage innings that went to Jeurys Familia down the stretch.
It’s not too soon to think about pieces that Billy Eppler could add to the team to make the club more dangerous. Our own David Groveman dangled top prospect Ronny Mauricio for a bunch of relievers in his recent article. My hope is that Khalil Lee goes on a hot streak before the trade deadline and can be the key piece to fetch a useful middle reliever. But that says as much about my belief in Lee as a useful MLB prospect as it does for the Mets’ need for bullpen help.
Right now, the average reliever in MLB has a 3.68 ERA and a 1.230 WHIP. The Mets as a team have a 3.27 ERA and a 1.115 WHIP from their bullpen. Their bullpen ERA ranks ninth in the majors. And while they’re good in a team-level view, their four most important bullpen arms are doing the heavy lifting. Perhaps we would have expected Trevor May and Adam Ottavino to be among the most important relievers but they’ve been supplanted by Chasen Shreve and Drew Smith.
It’s not too much different from last year, when no one thought coming into the season that Aaron Loup was one of the top bullpen arms but that’s certainly the way the season ended. This time around, though, the Mets have a manager who can adjust on the fly. Shreve and Smith have moved up in the pen’s pecking order. Perhaps this is out of necessity more than shrewdness. Still, it beats using Familia 24 times in the last 50 games as the season was slipping away.
If we’re looking strictly with a postseason point of view, the bullpen will be fortified even if the club doesn’t make any trades. If everyone is healthy, Tylor Megill and David Peterson will be available as bullpen arms. And if Buck Showalter shortens his rotation to four guys, then either Carlos Carrasco or Taijuan Walker will be a reliever in the playoffs, too.
So, if the primary need to be addressed by the trade deadline isn’t reliever, which position should get an upgrade? It’s difficult to watch the team day-in and day-out and not be concerned with the offensive production from the team’s catchers. James McCann has a 63 OPS+ and Tomas Nido has a 31. That’s, um, not good. Last year, when we were so disappointed in his offensive production, McCann posted a 77 OPS+.
The trouble with trading for a catcher is that such a huge portion of the position’s responsibility is to get the most out of the pitching staff. Whatever upgrade you might be able to get on the offensive side has the possibility to be done in with what the import does defensively. Gary Sanchez has a lifetime 112 OPS+ but do you want him behind the plate for Game 7 of the World Series?
Another thing that Eppler has to consider is the presence of top prospect Francisco Alvarez. It’s hard enough finding an available catcher that’s good on both offense and defense. You know you’ll have to pay big time to get such a guy. But can you afford to pay a lot for a two-way catcher when you have a guy in the pipeline who’s likely to be in the majors at some point during the 2023 season?
All of the above makes a trade for a catcher unlikely, regardless of how bad the Mets’ backstops have been with a bat in their hand. And as hard as this is to believe, the Mets don’t even have the worst situation at catcher. They rank 23rd in OPS from the catcher’s spot with their .504 mark. The Astros and White Sox – two teams with postseason expectations – have a .352 and .356 OPS, respectively, from their receivers.
Forget Mike Piazza, the Mets would be happy to have the second coming of Josh Thole, who put up an 85 OPS+ in his career as a Met. It just doesn’t look like that’s in the cards here in 2022. Doesn’t mean that Eppler shouldn’t be scouring the market looking for upgrades. Maybe the Pirates won’t ask a lot for Roberto Perez, who was just transferred to the 60-day IL with a hamstring injury but who could be back in early July before the trade deadline.
Editor’s Note – What follows is a half-baked idea, one offered as a think-piece, rather than a sincere proposal.
Still, the whole thing makes me wish that MLB had the equivalent of leasing. You know when you lease a car, you have it for a couple of years and then you have to return it to the dealership. It would be nice if the Mets could lease a catcher from the end of July to the end of November.
There’s no way the Nationals are trading Keibert Ruiz. But it would be fun to have him solve the catching issue for the last two months of 2022 plus the playoffs. But what would that lease cost? You have to imagine that many teams would be interested in that, which would drive up the acquisition price.
Would you trade oft-injured Matt Allan for a lease of Ruiz?
Two days in a row we turn to soccer (well, football) as part of your musings. In European football this is called a loan, which occurs in what is called the transfer window (basically trade). Loans are different from tranfers (trades), which are what we think of normally in baseball. The loan program may send young talent to teams in different leagues to gain experience outside of specific team training academies, or for player that just cant get enough playing time (like Dom, JD). It makes perfect sense to do this.
Gratuitously taken from web:
In addition to transfers, players may also switch teams temporarily through a process called a loan. In a loan, a player is allowed to temporarily play for a team which he is currently not under contract to. The team which the player is being “loaned” to does not have to pay the team which owns the player anything. Instead, they are only obligated to pay the player’s salary while he is on loan. Bigger clubs often loan out their younger players who are not making the starting lineup to smaller teams so that they can get valuable playing time and experience.
That’s a cool concept to think about. My initial thought is that if a team was going to do a rental like that for Aug – Nov they would more likely be looking for an established veteran rather than a younger player that hadn’t yet reached their peak. In the example of Ruiz the downside is that you would be helping the Nats by giving a young player experience in a playoff push and the postseason. Also, you don’t have a long track record of success since he is still developing (even though you’d love to have him if it was a straight up trade). I would think a more attractive candidate would be someone like Realmuto if the Phils fell out of contention. This way you have someone proven for the short term. I guess ultimately it’s similar to a trade for a pending free agent, like a Baez type, who you don’t have control over, except that this takes it a step further by removing the possibility that the player would like his new club and be inclined to re-sign. I also didn’t know that they did that in soccer even though that sounds more like the opposite reason which is meant for developmental purposes rather than helping a team in contention. Thanks for the soccer info Chris.
Thanks for bringing in Realmuto to this discussion.
I wonder if he was being honest if he would say he regretted his decision to eliminate the Mets from consideration when he was a free agent a couple of years ago. The Mets certainly seem on the upswing while the Phillies seem destined for 79-83 wins for the duration of Realmuto’s contract.
Well, now a deal for a catcher seems even more of an imperative: McCann has a broken bone in his wrist. Out at least 6 weeks. Patrick Mazeika is up to take his place. Too bad Alvarez isn’t further along.
Geez – if I thought the catchers hitting was bad before, it’s going to be even worse now with Mazeika. Start digging harder for a trade, Eppler!
As we’ve all probably heard by now, as well, Khalil Lee was demoted to Single A. Not Double A, Single A.
Maybe Nick Plummer is tradeable?
Not a fan of the lease proposal, sorry. The game has enough tanking issues, as well as enough issues between the haves and have nots. If I recall correctly, the Yankees kind of leased Chapman to the Cubs and received Gleyber Torres in return, although, technically, Chapman was able to sign with any team after the World Series. I think the Mets did the same with Familia. I can live with those loans.
I prefer that the Mets do not spend assets at this time for a stop gap catcher. Lets see how the team performs without McCann. Josh Thole is only 35 years old…
Wouldn’t trade Allen. Top-flight pitching is awfully hard to come by. He may not return to his former self, but that’s a risk I’d gladly take.
The bullpen is sufficient but I would try to supplement it at the trade deadline if there is an opportunity but not at the expense of a good prospect.
It is hard to have a catcher that above average offensively. The OPS of a catcher in Major League Baseball right now is 81. I’m not comfortable with Nido starting because of the injury to McCain. They should trade or sign a veteran defensive catcher in the meantime. I would be bold and promote Alvarez so that he could get his feet wet. He would get a learning experience for what is expected in the Major League game. He would share the catching duties until McCann heals.