When Max Scherzer unexpectedly walked off the mound in the sixth inning, it made Buck Showalter scramble. He had Adam Ottavino come in and he struck out the next batter to end the inning. With a doubleheader the day before, the Mets’ bullpen wasn’t the most rested it’s been all year, so Showalter sent Ottavino back out for the seventh inning. This is called an up/down, when a reliever goes back out to the mound after his team has had a chance to hit.
It feels like the Mets’ short relievers have not been very good in up/downs this year. But Ottavino had no trouble, as he retired the Cardinals in order in the seventh inning.
Last week, on an article about having relievers pitch clean innings – ones where they start with the first batter of the frame and pitch the full inning and then call it a day – Metsense asked how Mets relievers do in these up/down situations. Here’s that info for each reliever used by the Mets this season. The numbers are what the reliever did when he comes back to the mound after sitting in the dugout.
Yoan Lopez
4/27 – 1 IP, 0 ER
Seth Lugo
4/24 – 1 IP, 0 ER
5/14 – 0 IP, 2 ER
Trevor May
4/11 – 0 IP, 1 ER
4/22 – 1 IP, 2 ER
Adonis Medina
5/5 – 2 IP, 0 ER
5/17 – 1.2 IP, 0 ER
Stephen Nogosek
5/11 – 2 IP, 0 ER
Adam Ottavino
4/23 – 1 IP, 1 ER
5/18 – 1 IP, 0 ER
Jake Reed
5/17 – 1 IP, 0 ER
Sean Reid-Foley
4/23 – 1.1 IP, 0 ER
4/27 – 1.1 IP, 0 ER
4/30 – 0.2 IP, 1 ER
Joely Rodriguez
4/9 – 0.1 IP, 0 ER
4/13 – 0 IP, 2 ER
4/16 – 0 IP, 1 ER
4/29 – 0.1 IP, 0 ER
5/15 – 1 IP, 0 ER
5/17 – 0.1 IP, 0 ER (UE)
Chasen Shreve
4/10 – 1.1 IP, 1 ER
4/12 – 0.1 IP, 0 ER
4/17 – 1.0 IP, 0 ER
4/30 – 1 IP, 0 ER
5/5 – 0.1 IP, 0 ER
5/8 – 1 IP, 0 ER
5/15 – 0.1 IP, 2 ER
Drew Smith
4/12 – 1 IP, 0 ER
4/29 – 0.1 IP, 0 ER
5/3 – 1 IP, 0 ER
5/10 – 0.2 IP, 0 ER
Trevor Williams
4/17 – 0 IP, 0 ER
5/4 – 3 IP, 2 ER
5/11 – 3 IP, 0 ER
Add everyone together and you have 31.1 IP and 16 ER. That’s a 4.60 ERA. Compare that to how all Mets relievers have done this year with a 3.46 ERA and that’s significantly worse. And that 4.60 ERA is being helped by guys like Medina and Williams giving innings as more traditional long men. Those two combined for 9.2 IP and 2 ER. Take those out and you have 21.2 IP and 14 ER for a 5.82 ERA.
Some of this is overlap with the Perverse Platoon Ploy, bringing a guy back in order to get the platoon advantage for a batter or two. My opinion is that if you eliminate those outings and instead focus on the ones like last night where the move was made to get the reliever to pitch the full inning – whether he did or not – that the numbers would be significantly better in up/down situations.
Brian, you’ve been consistent on this point and are backing it up with facts from different angles. Is it possible that the Mets are unaware of this trend? I ask because if they are aware, then that implies that they are ignoring these data. Or perhaps they have other data that suggests that these are the right decisions but the outcomes thus far are outliers. I’d like to think that the former is true, but with the 30+ analytical people on the Mets staff, it’s hard to believe. So, if they are aware of this, why on earth do they continue? Any guesses?
On a related note, I wonder if these data on the ’22 Mets are any different from other teams or other years. Maybe you’ve uncovered a truism…
My only guess is that they think it’s a small sample fluke. The platoon advantage is real – LHB as a group do worse against LHP. But maybe we could lay off the throttle when it comes to the PPP
Thanks Brian for doing the research, it is appreciated.
A reliever’s job is to not gave up any runs. There is no reliever with a 0.00 ERA in baseball so the percentage to efficiency is important. Your research indicates that 67% of the time , or 2 out of 3 times, the Mets relievers don’t gave up any earned runs in an up/ down situation. It that good? No , it is not. I’ve been tracking the relievers that get into a game and gave up no earned runs when they appeared. As of May 5th only Lopez , Reed-Foley and May had a lower percentage of 67 percent. Therefore the up/down strategy is inferior. But it is only a small sample. I will try to update my research at the beginning of next week.