After 40 games played in 2022, the Rockies have a .283 AVG at home compared to a .229 AVG on the road. They’ve averaged 5.96 runs per game at home and 2.7 rpg at home. Obviously, they play in a good park for hitters. But that doesn’t explain all of the discrepancy. Intelligent people accept that there’s a “Coors Field Hangover” effect for Rockies hitters when they go on the road. After seeing breaking pitches that don’t move as much as they do at sea level, it takes hitters awhile to adjust to seeing curves and sliders move as much as they do in ordinary conditions.
But what about for road teams? Do they suffer the same hangover as the Rockies? Generally speaking, the visitors only spend one series – usually three games – in Colorado, while a typical homestand is 2-to-3 times as long for the home team. Does the shorter duration reduce or eliminate the hangover? Let’s see how teams do in their first series after leaving the Mile High city.
| Team | H/A | Hits | AB | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | A | 9 | 35 | 7 |
| Dodgers | A | 11 | 38 | 7 |
| Cubs | H | 7 | 30 | 4 |
| Cubs | H | 5 | 32 | 5 |
| Cubs | H | 9 | 28 | 2 |
| Phillies | H | 10 | 34 | 4 |
| Phillies | H | 7 | 31 | 3 |
| Phillies | H | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Reds | A | 6 | 33 | 3 |
| Reds | A | 7 | 33 | 4 |
| Reds | A | 9 | 37 | 5 |
| Nationals | A | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Nationals | A | 10 | 37 | 7 |
| Nationals | A | 11 | 35 | 4 |
| Royals | H | 6 | 34 | 3 |
| Royals | H | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Royals | H | 8 | 31 | 2 |
| Royals | H | 12 | 34 | 6 |
| Royals | H | 11 | 37 | 4 |
| Giants | H | 10 | 39 | 7 |
| Giants | H | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Giants | H | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| 176 | 735 | 79 | ||
| .239 AVG | 3.6 rpg |
Obviously, we’d like a larger sample size than 22 games but since we’re interested in what to expect when the Mets leave Denver for San Francisco, this is what we have to work with in this regard. The AVG is pretty much right in line with MLB’s .236 AVG. But our 3.6 rpg falls short of the 4.18 rpg of all 30 MLB teams this year.
A difference of over half a run per game feels significant. Maybe it is. Or perhaps it’s just what happens when you have a bunch of games featuring five teams that are under .500, including three teams at the bottom of the standings in their division. The two good teams here – Dodgers and Giants – scored 23 runs in five games, an average of 4.6 rpg.
When you factor in quality of the teams in question, it’s hard to say that there’s been a big hangover for visiting teams after leaving Coors Field so far this season. Which is good for the Mets. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is the relatively easy schedule the Rockies have had so far this season. According to ESPN, the Rockies’ strength of schedule ranks 28th in the majors. The Mets haven’t had the toughest schedule in the world, either. But in the 11 games they’ve played against teams over .500, the Mets are 8-3. The Rockies are now 4-8 against the over .500 teams they’ve played.
It isn’t just the thin air and decreased break on the pitches that affect the stats, but also the immense size of the outfield. By pushing the fences back to accommodate the thin air effect, much more outfield grass has been created, so a lot more balls find safe landing. Gary Cohen made a great fuss over this point. 2.6 acres of grass!
This all makes Taijuan’s great 7-inning performance even more impressive.
If we can keep this guy healthy, he vastly increases the hopefulness of the SP. No doubt a baseball season is a trip through an injury minefield, and the Mets have seemed especially unlucky in recent years. But one has to believe that these things even out…
Anyway you look at it, this is an important series in SF. Mets have to stand up and give the Giants trouble, another brick in the wall toward October.
I heard Gary and Ron talk about the 2.6 acres a few times yesterday too. I had never heard this statistic before and of course was wondering how different ballparks compare. Fortunately, the magic of Google led me to this article. https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-major-league-baseball-ballpark-sizes-2014-3. It confirms that Coors is the biggest and also shows that Citi is the 3rd largest, after Kauffman (KC.) Obviously the HR dimensions are critical but so are other factors, such as the shape of the field as well as the foul pole distances. In any case, the eyeball correlation shows that the bandboxes are clearly smaller, although that they are hitter dreams is not necessarily due to the smaller acreage.
An interesting topic, but the research falls far short.
Probably would need to look at years of data and, obviously, pay attention to the teams they are actually opposing. If one team goes to Pittsburgh and the other flies to LA, well, that’s likely going to have a profound effect on things.
One thing that I love about Buck is his willingness to lose games. He plays for tomorrow, too, and for the next week, and with an eye long down the road. In this case, I think it’s very clear that Buck wasn’t going to burn out his pen for 3 games in Colorado. To me, that’s the bigger Colorado Effect (not noted in your “study”). Teams go into CO and use a lot of pitchers, sometimes depleting themselves for the next series.
I wonder if a hitter might snap out of a funk in CO that propels him forward for the rest of the season. Gets some good results, builds confidence.
Again: It’s an interesting question to ponder and research.
Thoughtful post, J.P. Complexity abounds!