Mets go to longer bullpen outings as cut to 13 pitchers is just days away

Back in mid-April, Buck Showalter used an up/down to get his reliever the platoon advantage in the “down” for a batter or two four times in seven games. And it failed each time. An article appeared here after the fourth failure and dubbed that move the Perverse Platoon Ploy. Since then, Showalter has mostly moved away from using that particular ploy. And the pen has been better for it.

If you’re going to criticize a manager for employing a strategy that doesn’t work, you have to be ready to praise him when he uses one that does. Nine times in the last 10 games, Showalter has used a reliever for more than an inning at a time. Eight of those times the reliever turned in a scoreless appearance. Here’s the log:

5/17 G1 – Jake Reed, 2 IP, 0 ER
5/17 G2 – Adonis Medina, 2.0 IP, 0 ER
5/18 – Adam Ottavino, 1.1 IP,0 ER
5/19 – Drew Smith, 1.2 IP, 0 ER
5/21 G1 – Seth Lugo, 2.0 IP, 0 ER
5/21 G2 – Medina, 1.1 IP, 5 ER
5/23 – Colin Holderman, 2.0 IP, 0 ER
5/24 – Stephen Nogosek, 2.2 IP, 0 ER
5/25 – Trevor Williams, 3.2 IP, 0 ER

That’s a total of 18.2 IP and 5 ER for a 2.41 ERA, which we should be thrilled to get from the bullpen. Now, it may be just as much circumstance as any real change in behavior by Showalter, as there were two doubleheaders, the Max Scherzer injury and the Thomas Szapucki debacle all in the past 10 games. But even if necessity was a major factor in these lengthier outings for relievers, Showalter was creative within that, too. He used eight different relievers to go long, including the first time this year for both Lugo and Holderman.

And unlike earlier in the season, Showalter did not use either of his lefty relievers in this way. In the first 10 games of the season, he went long with a reliever in five games, with three times that being Chasen Shreve (2X) or Joely Rodriguez (1X) for the extra outs. For the most part, Showalter is moving away from both the Perverse Platoon Ploy and extended outings with his lefty relievers. He’s learned to be happy with his lefty getting the final out(s) of the inning and then collecting his winnings, rather than pushing his luck by sending them back to the mound for the next frame.

Meanwhile, the only downfall of these longer relief outings of the past 10 games is that three times after a reliever went long, he found himself sent to the minors immediately after the outing. Medina was sent down after both appearances listed above, as was Nogosek. And it’s not hard to understand why, as the Mets wanted the option to use another reliever while these guys would need multiple days off after going long. We’ve heard Keith Hernandez in the booth bemoaning the fate of the guy who gives the team 2.2 scoreless innings, only to be sent out the next day.

Which brings me back to my idea that the ideal bullpen carries three guys who can go multiple innings twice a week. Not that they have to but rather that they can, if needed.

The Opening Day bullpen featured Lugo, Ottavino, Smith, Williams, the two lefties, Edwin Diaz, Trevor May and Sean Reid-Foley. Reid-Foley and Williams were the guys who Showalter would have mentioned as his long men, as Lugo didn’t pitch more than an inning until 5/21. Of course, MLB didn’t restrict bullpen usage the opening month of the season. They required no more than 14 pitchers beginning in May and by the end of the month that number will be 13.

That means eight relievers, or one fewer than the Mets had on their Opening Day roster. If I was calling the shots, the big unknown would be Lugo. Is he capable of going multiple innings twice a week? It’s my belief he’s more valuable in that role than a strict one-inning outing 3-4 times a week. Maybe it’s better to count on him as a short reliever, knowing that he can go longer if absolutely necessary. My pen would have the following breakdown:

Short relievers – Diaz, Lugo, Ottavino, Smith
Long relievers – Holderman, Medina, Nogosek
Lefty – Shreve

We both know that the Mets will still have two lefties in their pen when the reliever cut down happens in a few days. And Rodriguez has been pitching much better here lately and it would be a coin flip on which lefty to keep if the Mets did decide to go with only one. My choice was Shreve but there’d be no argument if you said that Rodriguez was the better choice.

The above listing is counting Williams in the rotation, which he may be just for another start or two before Tylor Megill comes off the IL. When Megill returns, Williams goes to the pen and the long reliever pitching the worst – or the one who just pitched – gets sent down to make room.

Another thing we’ll have to keep in mind is that the new rule about how many times a player can be optioned in a single season starts in June. Previously, a team could option a player as many times as it wished. Now, clubs will only be allowed to do it five times. It will cut down some on the movement of relievers but Holderman, Medina, Nogosek and Reed will still likely ride the shuttle between Queens and Syracuse multiple times the remainder of the year.

Holderman seems to have moved into “safe” territory but we’ll have to see what happens when May returns from the IL.

One of the benefits to me of carrying multiple relievers who can go long is that it should allow you to reduce the number of guys needed to run a pen – or the opposite of what the LOOGY did back in the day. It should be no trouble to go to eight relievers with this deployment and it’s not hard at all to imagine a 7-reliever pen if Jacob deGrom and Scherzer were routinely going deep into games.

The Mets clearly have some juggling to do, with the cut down in bullpen size imminent and the staggered return of injured pitchers like deGrom, May, Megill and Scherzer. Experience tells us that when you think you have too many pitchers that multiple injuries will come along and wipe that depth away. Still, if somehow everyone is healthy at the same time, the Mets’ pen will feature:

Diaz
Lugo
Smith
Ottavino
Megill
May
Rodriguez
Shreve

Or will Williams factor in somehow? My preference would be for him over a lefty reliever but it’s unlikely the Mets feel that way. Would they keep Williams in the majors and send Megill to the minors to remain stretched out as a starter? That’s another option, too. There’s the same issue with David Peterson, too. Hopefully we get to see how the Mets will handle that sooner rather than later.