As Thomas Paine once noted, these are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot, and the fair-weather fan will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their ball club; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. June, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as World Series Champion should not be highly rated.
Perhaps this is like a no hitter, and nothing should be said aloud, but the New York Mets season is at the make-or-break point. There are always injuries to every team. There are always slumps on every team. There are always tough road trips for every team. The Mets, good team or bad team, they are victims of The June Swoon.
You may say that is all coincidence, and I’d love it if that were true. Here’s what it looks like:
| Year | June W | June L | June % | Year W | Year L | Year % | Yr-Jn W | Yr-Jn L | Yr-Jn % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 12 | 15 | 0.444 | 90 | 72 | 0.556 | 78 | 57 | 0.578 |
| 2016 | 12 | 15 | 0.444 | 87 | 75 | 0.537 | 75 | 60 | 0.556 |
| 2017 | 14 | 14 | 0.500 | 70 | 92 | 0.432 | 56 | 78 | 0.418 |
| 2018 | 5 | 21 | 0.192 | 77 | 85 | 0.475 | 72 | 64 | 0.529 |
| 2019 | 10 | 18 | 0.357 | 86 | 76 | 0.531 | 76 | 58 | 0.567 |
| 2021 | 15 | 15 | 0.500 | 77 | 85 | 0.475 | 62 | 70 | 0.470 |
| Totals | 68 | 98 | 0.410 | 487 | 485 | 0.501 | 419 | 387 | 0.520 |
We all enjoy cherry-picked seasons, so I wanted to draw attention to this particular frustration. Including 2015-2016 when the Mets made the World Series and wild card game, they were good teams. But in June? They stunk. When a team is good, they can ride out a weak month. At this juncture we cannot be sure if the Mets are a good team <all signs point to yes> or not.
Some may say the 2018 season is an outlier. Jacob deGrom pitched that entire season and won the Cy Young Award going 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA. June was just a much worse month. If you remove that season from this data, the Mets in June played to a .450 record, but still a .518 the rest of the time.
Some might say this is a new team, these players were not on those teams. Much of this team began arriving in 2016-2017. Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, deGrom, Seth Lugo. Nearly all of the core was present for the 2018 debacle, and even Pete Alonso has been present since 2019. These are the players on the teams who stumbled in June.
What about 2019-2021 (there was no June in 2020, thankfully)? Yes, the Mets played to a .431 mark in June and a .519 spot not in June.
A .519 win percentage isn’t enough to make the playoffs usually, as it comes in about 84-78. However, the seasonal dynamics change dramatically. When a team lays an egg in June, the pennant chase fades, reducing any real opportunity to add a key player in late July to make a run. Even when the Mets won in 2015-2016, a better June means an easier playoff run.
As the Mets enter June, the end of May has seen an injury to Max Scherzer, some key bullpen players, and the remaining relievers show signs of wear. Realistically, today is the day to make an acquisition, because come Wednesday, the wheels will be rattling. As noted earlier this week, the Mets are about to head on a long West Coast road trip.
The most comforting aspects about this June are five, er, three, things. First is deGrom seems to be recovering. There’s a different manager and Buck Showalter has had a much better June showing over his career, even with the Baltimore Orioles. Lastly, this team seems to be more resilient. Recovering from late game loss of the lead seems to happen more than usual.
These are indeed the times that try men’s souls. Let’s go Mets.
Let’s look at this imminent west coast trip that everyone, and I mean everyone, has already deemed a disaster-in-waiting.
SanDiego: a good team with a record similar to the Mets. They went 6-0 against the Reds, a terrible team, and held their own against a few better teams.
Dodgers: Good team. 9-2 vs DBacks, 9-0 vs. Cubs and Reds.
Angels: Beat up on bad teams early, on a five game losing streak now.
All three teams would rather not face the Mets, especially the Angels. I think it is entirely reasonable to expect at least a split. A disaster to me would be to lose all three series, 3-6… Last year’s team would go 1-8.
Met’s bullpen needs attention… can’t beat the Dodgers without a good one.
I agree with Wobbit. Those teams should be concerned with the Mets coming to town. We need to raise our expectations. We have all had our disappointments with this team but if they are truly WS contenders, which I think they are, we should feel confident that they can beat top teams. The fact that the team has not fared well in past Junes has no bearing on this year unless you think the guys that have gone through these tough months of June are so psychologically scarred from it that it will affect this year. I think this team believes and I believe as well. It will definitely be a tougher schedule over the next several weeks but I expect them to more than hold their own. Time will tell.
While the West Coast trip gets all of the attention, June also has 4 games against the Astros and 3 against the Brewers.
And no doubt someone will add 7 against the Marlins, “who always play us tough.” The Mets are 41-26 against Miami since Nimmo established himself in 2018.
In 2015, Wright missed all of June and TDA missed half, Conforto was in the minors and Cespedes was on the Tigers.
In 2016, the team was hanging out with the 1969 expansion Padres for worst results in the past 50 years with RISP.
In 2018 the free fall started in May when they were 10-18.
The one that really hurts was 2019 but they were under .500 in May that year, too.
With the combination of schedule and injuries, I’d sign up for an average June winning percentage of .410 here in 2022 right now.
I want better than that. Even with the injuries .500 or better is what I want.
I want to go undefeated.
But if the Mets don’t pull a 2018 June they’re going to be in excellent shape. They’ll only have five road games the rest of the year against teams that are currently over .500 and two of those are in Yankee Stadium. If we’re competitive and hold our own in June minus JDG and Scherzer then I’ll like our chances in the playoffs when we play those same teams with our aces.
There are 25 games in June. As long as we win double digits, I’ll be happy, even if I want to go 25-0.
Of the 25 games in June, 8 are against the Nats and Marlins. I would hope for a minimum of 5-3 in those. That leaves 17 games against tougher competition. To go 10-15 or .400 for the month that means 5-12 in all of the other games. That doesn’t scream World Series contender to me, especially for a team playing at a .650 clip now, even if the schedule has been somewhat kind to this point. I’d be disappointed that. And just to be clear, I would be ok with 25-0.
I don’t think this team will play any prolonged stretch at .400. Especially if they get all three pitchers back by the ASG, what team will look forward to the Mets coming to town? Come playoffs, two or more starters go the bullpen… they get even tougher.
Barring further killer injuries, this offense will compete and the pitching should keep games close. I think we are all adjusting to the Mets being a better team than we are used to. Depth and talent makes for a good season.
Still, Biller Eppler has to be working the inner circles, lining up extra bullpen help for sooner (injuries) or later (trade deadline). One or two shut down guys, and the Mets are absolutely formidable.
No deGrom, no Scherzer. That is what I am worried about this June. Hopefully Lindor and Alonso continue their tear. Any slumps and we could have a rough month. Need to start off by pounding the Nats.
Uncle Steve must have had a lot to do with putting this team together yet we haven’t heard much from him. I like that. Mr. Cohen you’ve been everything your fellow Mets fans hoped you’d be.
The Phillies took 3 of 4 from the Dodgers. The Nats split 4 games with them. I am not worried one bit about this upcoming series with the Dodgers. I would expect a split, but would not be surprised if we took 3 of 4. The Mets are for real – they are shaping up to be one of the top 2 or 3 teams in their entire history (as long as a 2007 style meltdown doesn’t happen). It’s a roster that is 40 deep, which has been proven time and time again the last few games. Plummer? Holderman? Nogosek? Every one is contributing and their confidence is sky high. And they will only get better from here.
2 more wins for my sweep the Phils/Nats parlay to fulfill.
In June the Mets have 25 games. They are playing 17 of the games with playoffs teams and 13 of those games are on the road. Let’s be real. They should loss more than they win. It would not be the “typical” June swoon. It will be very hard be survived the month with a 13-12 record. If they win the Marlins series 5-2 then it could be possible. My moniker , Metsense, is a tribute to Thomas Paine the author of “Common Sense”.