Young prospects versus known mediocrities

By now, most everyone knows that the Mets’ farm system is top heavy without a lot of depth. It’s one of the reasons they jumped on Nick Plummer, a former first-round pick who was curiously let go of by the Cardinals following last year, when he finally performed like they hoped he would when they drafted him. Plummer was sent to Triple-A, where he easily out-performed Khalil Lee, who many figured as the Mets’ top outfield prospect.

Plummer got a brief call-up earlier in the year but got just 1 PA before being sent back down. Plummer was on the Mets’ 40-man roster, which meant he didn’t get exposed to waivers. He continued to perform for Syracuse and when Travis Jankowski went on the IL, Plummer was recalled and he’s come up with big extra-base hits the past two games.

But it might not have worked out so nicely for Plummer if things had worked out a little differently. In his first promotion to the majors, Plummer was added to the Mets’ MLB roster along with veteran Matt Reynolds, who was on his second stint with the organization.

Once thought to be a future star because of his BABIP (and Las Vegas influenced) stats in 2014, Reynolds logged 226 PA for the Mets in 2016-17 and proved that he was most definitely nothing special, posting a 76 OPS+. Eventually, he was sold to the Nationals and later joined the Royals and White Sox organizations. Prior to the 2022, he rejoined the Mets to provide depth at Triple-A.

Plummer and Reynolds were called up when Mark Canha and Brandon Nimmo were on the Covid IL. When the two starters returned, there was no spot left for the callups so they were removed from the team. Reynolds was designated for assignment and was picked up by the Reds. He’s resurfaced in the majors with his new club, so it didn’t work out so bad for him. But if no one had claimed him, Reynolds likely would have gone back to Syracuse. And if the Mets had to pick between Plummer and Reynolds to replace Jankowski, it’s certainly possible that the veteran Reynolds would have been the choice.

Triple-A has long been a place to stash major league veterans, guys to promote in case of an injury. It’s a practice that dates back at least until the 1990s and likely earlier than that. It’s just that with the makeup of the Mets’ farm system, they stash more AAAA types than most clubs. A look at the Syracuse roster shows just three players among the 49 players to suit up for the club this year are age 23 or younger. Those three are Juan Loyo, Mark Vientos and Wyatt Young.

Loyo played just three games this year before being moved to the Development List, which allows a club to retain a player without actually keeping him on a roster. Not exactly something you’d do with a top prospect. Vientos is a top prospect and it’s possible he makes his MLB debut later this season. Which brings us to Young.

Young first caught my attention by being with the major league club in Spring Training this year much later than you would expect a young prospect to be. Then he started off the season with Brooklyn before getting the call to Triple-A. In 84 PA with Syracuse, Young had a .352/.446/.437 line. And then he was demoted to Double-A.

I asked John from Albany if he knew why the Mets sent down a youngster who was thriving at Triple-A. Here was his response:

Wyatt Young was never meant for Syracuse. He was sent there as a stop gap guy from Brooklyn when they were short on infielders as a place holder until Tzu-Wei Lin (signed late in Spring Training) was ready and Gosuke Katoh was picked up on waivers. They did the same thing last year with Cody Bohanek. Bohanek was sent back to Brooklyn each time last year. At least when Young did so well, they sent him to AA.

Back when Tony Bernazard was the Mets’ vice president of development, the team’s strategy was to aggressively promote young guys to see if they could handle advanced levels. It was sort of like teaching kids to swim by throwing them in the deep end. No one should really champion this type of way of treating young talent.

At the same time – why demote a guy like Young who was thriving at a higher level? There’s no shame in being in Double-A at age 22, like Young is now. But there’s not much point in him being there, either.

It just seems crazy to me to prefer stockpiling transient has-beens and never-weres at the top level of the system when you have a youngster perfectly capable of handling the spot. And if Lin and Katoh weren’t enough, the Mets just traded for JT Riddle for more middle infield depth to stash at Syracuse.

When the Mets acquired Plummer, my initial reaction was skepticism. The Cardinals are famous for bringing up unheralded guys and having them be quality contributors. They know their stuff. So, why did they cut ties to a first-round pick who finally performed? It looks like the Mets are going to reap the benefits of Plummer’s late development, even if he’s nothing more than a fourth outfielder.

But a fourth outfielder that you have as a pre-arb player is a very nice thing. It’s the type of thing that ideally your farm system produces so you don’t have to pay the going rate for Jake Marisnick or Kevin Pillar or Jonathan Villar. None of them are going to break the bank but none of them are threats to put up an .800 OPS in a full season of reserve at-bats, either.

Maybe Plummer goes 3-45 from now until Jankowski returns. Maybe Young never reproduces his early Triple-A numbers, much less makes it to the majors and be a contributor. But as a fan, my preference is to see guys like Plummer and Young get shots, rather than someone who had some minor level of success for another organization three years ago.

It’s super that Riddle has 797 PA in the majors under his belt. He also has a 67 OPS+ in those appearances. Call me crazy but I’d rather that the Mets give a shot to Young if for some reason they had a need for a middle infielder. He really couldn’t be much worse.

This is not to say that there’s no need for AAAA guys in Triple-A. Those teams need players and sometimes there’s just not an available youngster in the system to reasonably fill the spot. Plus, as we saw when our affiliate was Buffalo, some cities prefer to win games with AAAA players than struggle with youngsters with a future in the majors.

But when there’s a youngster who can fill the position, he absolutely should be given preference to a known mediocrity.

Vientos got off to a poor start at Triple-A, hitting just .159 after his first 20 games and 74 PA. But since then, the guy who had such a good year in 2021 at Double-A has emerged, as he has a .312/.373/.656 line over his last 67 PA. If Eduardo Escobar wound up on the IL, my hope is that they would give Vientos a shot before someone like Riddle.

My firm belief is that youngsters aren’t the enemy. Sometimes they’re even the solution. Plummer hasn’t erased all of my skepticism yet. But it’s so much better to see him in the majors than yet another futile go-round with Reynolds. Leave that type of running in circles to the second-division clubs. We’ve got higher goals than that.