As the Mets embark on the toughest part of their schedule, it’s a good chance to look at how they got to a terrific 35-17 record and see where maybe some tweaks are needed moving forward. Right now, people are worried about the depth of the pitching but my belief is that’s been one of the strengths of the team from day one and that includes both depth starters and depth relievers. Instead, let’s check in on the hitting side of things.
If we look at the top 10 hitters of the team, what can we learn? First, let’s look at plate appearances to see who’s getting the most time. If we sort by PA and arrange by tiers, here’s what we have:
Tier 1 – Francisco Lindor (232) and Pete Alonso (227) – These are the guys that Buck Showalter is playing everyday if they’re healthy and, well, they’ve been healthy.
Tier 2 – Eduardo Escobar (207), Starling Marte (200), Brandon Nimmo (191), Jeff McNeil (189) – These are the guys who Showalter plays every day but maybe they haven’t been as healthy as Lindor and Alonso.
Tier 3 – Mark Canha (161) – Canha’s in a group of his own because while he’s been mostly healthy, outside of the days he missed for Covid, Showalter uses his spot more than others to get reserves into games.
Tier 4 – Luis Guillorme (103), Dominic Smith (101), J.D. Davis (99) – These are the guys without a starting position. Guillorme has played starter innings here recently because the hits are falling in for him and smart managers play these guys as long as they’re hot. Smith is out of the picture now, at least temporarily and perhaps longer. And Davis should be getting most of the DH starts now with both Robinson Cano and Smith not around to siphon off ABs.
Now let’s do the same thing with these 10 players but instead of grouping them by PA, let’s divvy them up by OPS:
Tier 1 – Guillorme (.909) and Alonso (.891)
Tier 2 – McNeil (.827) and Nimmo (.814)
Tier 3 – Lindor (.787), Marte (.775), Canha (.762)
Tier 4 – Davis (.696) and Escobar (.670)
Tier 5 – Smith (.543)
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see why Smith was sent to Syracuse – he clearly wasn’t getting the job done. Moving up an OPS level to Davis and Escobar, we see these two have been easily better than Smith but not exactly doing a great job, either. So, why is it that Escobar is third on the team in PA yet his production level is only ninth? Moving up another level, why is Canha the one to sit on the bench when a reserve gets a start? He’s got an OPS 102 points better than Escobar.
Canha and Escobar are both 33, so it’s not like Canha is older and needs more time off. Part of it is McNeil, who can slide in effortlessly to LF, which allowed Showalter to get starts at 2B first for Cano and now Guillorme. If Escobar takes a day off, the first choice is Davis, who’s not exactly a defensive wizard. The other choice is Guillorme, who while the BABIP gods have certainly smiled upon him, the power ones have yet to give him their blessing.
Escobar was brought in for power. And while he has yet to display that very much, he at least offers the promise of an extra-base hit when he steps to the plate. It’s a whole lot easier to bat Escobar fifth than it is Guillorme.
But that line of thinking is much easier to sell in April than it is in June.
Showalter has used McNeil to bat behind Alonso versus righty pitchers. And now that Davis is heating up – 10 hits in his last six games, including two doubles – it seems like he’ll be an option to bat fifth against LHP. So, where does that leave Escobar? He’s now batting either sixth or seventh in the order for the most part. But even that may be in jeopardy.
A third of the season is in the books and Escobar has a 93 OPS+ and a 142 ISO. Again, those aren’t horrible numbers but Guillorme has a 164 OPS+ and, unlike Davis, is not a liability at the hot corner. Instead of benching Canha to get playing time for Guillorme, it seems the move will be to sit Escobar, instead.
Of course, Escobar will still get a lot of playing time and will get the chance to display the power that he has in the past. And it’s the most likely outcome that Guillorme will stop having so much success with balls finding holes. But Showalter will still want to give Guillorme at-bats when that happens, just maybe once a week instead of five times in six games.
Cano was lousy and they cut him. Smith wasn’t much better and he was sent to the minors. Neither of those things are an option for Escobar. The best thing is if he starts providing the .219 ISO he did a season ago. But if he doesn’t, he’s going to lose playing time. Because with Cano and Smith no longer available as scapegoats, all eyes will be on Escobar. And that’s not a good spot to be in when you have a sub-Plaweckian .566 OPS in your last 100 PA.
The rule of thumb is to evaluate the off-season moves and tweak the playing time starting on Memorial Day. (1/3 0f the season). When the trading deadline nears (2/3 of the season) to get the players you need for the stretch run.( Metsense 101 – LOL).
Even though we have a 35–17 record there is the need to slightly tweak.
Guillorme earned the playing time with Escobar getting less playing time because of his diminished production. JD and Escobar should be the DH because Guillorme’s glove makes him more valuable on the field. Guillorme’s versatility at 2B, SS and SS along with McNeil’s versatility at 2B and LF makes the distribution of at bats not problematical. This is only a slight tweak needed because the heavy lifting was accomplished by dealing with Cano and Smith. Eppler did a good job in the off-season and Showalter does a good job distributing playing time.
Looking at everything offensively, that breakdown is solid. Adding defense, that breakdown isn’t suffice.
Allowing for WAR, that accounts for both, McNeil is 9th in bWAR, 16th in fWAR.
Lindor is 12th in fWAR, Nimmo is 19th in fWAR, and Alonso is 22nd.
Too, Escobar has been very solid defensively and Showalter told us up front in his introduction that he values defense (Hope Alderson didn’t faint).
Don’t have time to check full bWAR numbers now, will check back in.
Guillermo will play more than not play. He can hit LHers well enough to not play only against RHers. At this point, he is a platoon player more than he is a sub. Oh, he might cool, but his concentration at the plate and his OBP warrants more ABs. He does something every game to elevate the team.
Canha is being used well and is highly valued by Buck (and by me). His ABs are a thing of beauty. The man recognizes the pitch one foot out of the pitchers hand! Hard to fool, and never chases. Full count Canha!
Marte is still settling in… might still get better. I’m just hoping we get his production for 150 games. Too talented not to contribute consistently.
Escobar is bound to improve, right? His terrible stretch should be coming to an end soon, right? He should hit near 20 HRs… do the math.
JD Davis is the wild card. One should expect he will continue to rise with playing time. The guy can hit with hard contact. With Dom gone, Pete plays the field and JD plays almost everyday as DH. This California trip might be really good for him.
McNeil, Lindor, Alonso all at peak performance so far. Stay the course.
I was thinking that the Mets catching is good. Defensively, they do well, even Mazeika. If Nido hits at all, it’s a bonus. Given what Brian says about the pitching, you gotta credit the catching staff, too.
Great article on The Athletic today about what we can learn about each team (Dodgers and Mets) this series, and what each team can learn about themselves. This series that starts today is as much about October as it is anything else. How do the Dodgers pitching staff approach a deep lineup like the Mets? What can the Mets learn from that? How should the Mets approach the Dodgers staff? And what can we learn over these next four games that might inform the types of decisions we’ll need to make at the trade deadline? Should be an entertaining and fascinating week ahead.
Escobar is going nowhere. Hes the best 3B this team has, will bust out of whatever slump he has , and is clearly a core leader of the team. He is not riding the pine so that Guillorme can get a few more singles.
This team is absolutely sailing right now. I cant see shuffling it, nor do I expect them to sit key people they brought in. The good time Mazieka, Guillorme, and Jankowsky are fabulous, but the more time they get the more they will be exposed. Nido has 4 hits in one night…thats not gonna happen again. Buck has this team all under control.
I think you may be a tad unfair to Guillermo. Who’s to say what player he really is. He never got extended playing time, and he just might be the player we re seeing now. Not that the numbers will remain extraordinary, but his high-quality ABs are not going to change. He may dip like every other player, but I’m always fascinated by people who discount his ability… based on what? Wade Boggs hit a lot of singles…
Furthermore, I don’t expect him or want him to replace Escobar, but remain in an ongoing rotation with McNeil, Escobar, and JD as to playing time and defensive coverage. I’m only saying he is a legit platoon player… a .460 OBP not too shabby.
.460 OBP? Was that meant to be .360 or did you mean slugging?
LG has a .455 OBP this season. You did not read that wrong.
As to the Dodger lineup, they look a little like the Mets.
Whereas Betts and Freeman stand out and are hard to match, guys like Turner and Muncey are grinders, tough outs. Mets now have these guys, too. Nimmo, Canha, McNeil, and Guillermo see a lot of pitches… can mitigate some of the starting pitching effectiveness.
I think the Dodgers are deeper at this point, but that could be I don’t see them play, so I don’t know their flaws. If the Mets fail this week, it will be by pitchers making short starts and forcing the bullpen to face a very complete lineup. Offense will be ok.
Jeremy Hefner has to have a plan to pitch to a few key guys.
You make a very good point referring to the starting pitching. The Dodgers are set up to pitch their top four starting pitchers while the Mets are set up to pitch their bottom four starting pitchers. Their top four, DeGrom, Scherzer, Megill, and Carrasco are all missing this series. The offense will have to overcome that.
At this point, who is next up showed there be an immediate need?