Some things are simply inevitable. Like death and taxes. For the last 15 years or so, an addition to that short list has been necessary: the Mets’ early season promise disappearing as the All-Star break approaches. Even in the grand years, like 2015 and 2016, mid-June-to-early-July has been a tough slog for the boys from Queens. Here’s a handy chart:

Season                         Record on May 31                           June record                          Final record & standing

2007                              34-18 .654                                        12-15 .444                            88-74 .543, 2nd place

2008                              27-27 .500                                        13-15 .464                            89-73 .549, 2nd place

2009                              28-21 .571                                           9-18 .333                           70-92 .432, 4th place

2010                              26-26 .500                                         18-8   .692                           79-83 .488, 4th place

2011                              25-29 .463                                         16-11 .593                           77-85 .475, 4th place

2012                              28-23 .549                                         15-13 .536                           74-88 .457, 4th place

2013                              22-30 .423                                         11-15 .423                           74-88 .457, 3rd place

2014                              26-29 .473                                          11-17 .393                          79-83 .488, 2nd place

2015                              28-23 .549                                          12-15 .444                           90-72 .556, 1st place, NL pennant

2016                              29-22 .569                                          12-15 .444                           87-75 .537, 2nd place, Wild Card #1

2017                              23-28 .451                                          14-14 .500                           70-92 .432, 4th place

2018                              27-27 .500                                             5-21 .192                           77-85 .475, 4th place

2019                              28-29 .491                                           10-18 .357                           86-76 .531, 3rd place

2020                                    n/a                                                          n/a                                   26-34 .433, 4th place

2021                               27-20 .575                                           15-15 .500                           77-85 .475, 3rd place

Other than the three-year run of 2010-12, when July took the title, June has been the cruelest month since the all-too-short playoff run of 2006. So, even in this potentially historic season in which we find ourselves, neither history, nor the schedule is on the Mets’ side.

As this is written, they are actually over .500 for the month, at 5-4. This is notable, for even without taking history into account, the June schedule looked daunting from the get-go. A long West Coast trip – which very few Mets teams have ever handled particularly well – would bring them through the behemoth that is the Los Angeles Dodgers, the immensely talented San Diego Padres, and the very strong Anaheim Angels of Shohei Ohtani, and Mike Trout – not to mention Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Loup, two former Mets presumably out for revenge. And if you thought getting home will give them any kind of respite, you should probably think again. They will face the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers and perennial Division thorn, Miami Marlins. Then it’s back on the road for a visit to a powerhouse Houston Astros team and a stop in Miami, before coming home to face Houston again, closing out the month. If you look up “brutal schedule” in the dictionary, the Mets’ June 2022 would be the poster child.

So far, they have been able to play the Dodgers to a standstill and they’re catching the Angels in the midst if an epic cold spell: Anaheim only broke a 14-game losing skein the night before the Mets got to town and beat them, 7-3. Unfortunately, the Mets’ lack of starting pitching depth in the absence of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill was exposed against the Padres’ superior offense. They also had to withstand two games in San Diego without Pete Alonso and Starling Marte, both injured early in that series. Megill has now returned and will be ramped up as the weeks chug along, while Scherzer and deGrom are just now gearing up their respective throwing programs for a possible late-June/early-July tandem return to action. Alonso returned to the lineup against the Angels and rumor has it that Marte will be right behind him.

So, with it being almost a given that June will, basically, suck wind given the history, the schedule, and now, the injuries, how deep will the trough be? At the end of May, I stated that a .500 June would be satisfactory. That’s still in the cards, nine games into the month. If the Mets can produce better than that, it will be a huge bonus – probably psychologically, more than anything – to carry us all to the All-Star break. Of course, there is always the possibility the “same ol’ Mets” show up, the Mets of strained obliques, barking hammies, and “elbow soreness” as well as a general mid-summer malaise which always seems to grip this team, but for a very few rare occasions. From word one, we’ve been saying that this year “feels different.” Let’s hope so: it seems that the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies – behind the Mets in the standings right now, but not quite far enough for comfort – have gotten hot simultaneously and you don’t have to have been a Mets fan of very long standing to start sweating a little. A consequence of the Mets’ tougher-than-tough June schedule is that their division rivals will, naturally, have an easier time of it. If they can be kept at bay until, say August, the Mets will have a busy fall season.

A .500 June might just suit us all just fine.

3 comments on “How steep will the Mets’ “June Swoon” be?

  • Wobbit

    When I consider it rationally, I feel the Mets offense should hold its own, and the starting pitching should be adequate to have a shot at every single game. The real success of the month, the challenge to win each series, is the bullpen.
    In the past the Mets would fade in games, fail to tack on runs to put games away, lose leads, and lose close games. The bullpen had a lot to do with this pattern.
    If Buck can maintain a viable bullpen, they can and even should win series against the Brewers and the Astros. Why not? The Brewers seem the slightly tougher match up, but with a little imagination, you can see them not loving the Mets showing up on their schedule either.
    If Megill, Carrasco, Bassitt, and Walker can win the first half of the games, the games come down to the final three innings. If the bullpen steps up, I like our chances to win series and finish June in better shape than history suggests.
    Very few of these guys were here for those other debacles.

    • Brian Joura

      The ERA of the MLB average pen is 3.88 while the Mets’ pen has a 3.64 mark in more IP than any starter will have this season, the 10th-best mark in the majors. If that’s our biggest problem, we’ll be just fine. Especially if Buck will stop pitching Lugo in back-to-back games (in the second half of back-to-backs, he has 4 IP and 4 ER) and trying to get more out of the mediocre lefties (41 IP, 19 ER) than the bare minimum.

      Buck’s been our best bullpen manager in over a decade. But he can get more out of this pen and it’s already above average.

  • CharlieHangley

    …. And there it is. Win #13 for the month, with 3 games to go.

    Turns out, it wasn’t very steep at all.

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