Edwin Diaz’ hot start, the hits falling in for Davis & Nido, West Coast blues

Edwin Diaz was solid for the Mets last year but not many people were doing cartwheels over a season that saw six losses, six blown saves and a 3.45 ERA. This year, he has allowed a higher BB/9 and a higher HR/9 yet has a 2.28 ERA. And as sparkling as that ERA is, it’s already come with Diaz going thru a bad streak. We know that relief pitchers tend to bunch their bad outings together and that these usually come in a stretch of 6-12 games.

In 2021, Diaz had a stretch of eight games where he allowed 9 ER in 8 IP for a 10.13 ERA. Outside of that span in ‘21, Diaz had a 2.47 ERA. This year, he had a stretch of six games where he allowed 4 ER in 5.2 IP for a 6.35 ERA. As far as bad stretches go, that wasn’t too bad. Outside of that span, Diaz has a 1.00 ERA in 18 IP. Now, relievers can certainly have more than one bad stretch in a season, so it’s not like Diaz is home free. But if he doesn’t, this may end up challenging his wonderful 2018 season, the one that prompted the Mets to trade for him in the first place.

So, if he’s giving up more walks and homers, how is this season better?

There are two main reasons for that and they go hand in hand. First, Diaz has upped his strikeout rate, going from a strong 12.78 mark last year to an elite 16.35 K/9 this season. And the other is that he has a ridiculously high strand rate. There may be more baserunners this year, but he has a 91.7 LOB%. Since they lowered the mound in 1969, LOB% has been remarkably consistent the past 50-plus years, ranging from 70-73% each season on a league-wide rate.

Perhaps not as extreme as with BABIP, but there are pitchers who can have a consistently elevated strand rate. In his career, Diaz has a 79.2 LOB%. But his highest mark in a season where he pitched at least 30 innings was the 83.9% he had in his rookie year. In other words, that 91.7 rate he has currently is unsustainable. Hopefully he can allow fewer baserunners going forward so that when regression hits, it doesn’t hit that hard.

One of the things that FIP does is that it operates outside of good-fortune events like, say, strand rate. In 2021 Diaz had a 3.45 ERA but a 2.48 FIP. This year, he has a 2.28 ERA but a 2.42 FIP. He’s essentially been the same guy as he was a year ago yet the results have been so much better because of his success stranding baserunners.

DAVIS AND CONSISTENT PLAYING TIME – When the Mets finally cut Robinson Cano, J.D. Davis was the beneficiary. At the start of the season, Davis had fewer PA than both Cano and Dominic Smith. But Davis leapfrogged Smith in PA in May and with Smith currently out of the picture, Davis is playing every day. In his last 15 games, a span of 58 PA, Davis has an .820 OPS. He has four walks and a HBP in this stretch but it’s been mostly a case of the hits falling in, as he has a .474 BABIP. There has been some loud contact – he had a single with an exit velocity of 100.6 last night – and his average exit velo of 93.8 ranks in the 98th percentile of all MLB players. But he needs to transform that hard contact into more extra-base hits.

THE EMPEROR’S NEW CLOTHES – For much of the last decade, we were told over and over again how important lefty relievers were to the success of a team’s bullpen. Fans, much like the people in the Hans Christian Andersen tale, didn’t want to appear stupid or incompetent, so they fawned over the need to have multiple lefties in the pen. The 2022 Mets have two primary lefties in their bullpen – Joely Rodriguez and Chasen Shreve. Those two have combined for 43 IP and 24 ER for a 5.02 ERA. The rest of the pen has a 3.54 ERA. When the injured pitchers return and current starters move to the pen, neither Rodriguez nor Shreve should be treated like sacred cows with a guaranteed spot in the pen.

NIDO’S SHOT AT REGULAR PLAYING TIME – There are some Tomas Nido supporters out there who felt like all he needed was a shot at regular playing time to prove that he was more than a backup. Last year he might have had that shot but he got hurt at the same time as starter James McCann. However, this year he’s been healthy as McCann has found himself back on the IL. But regular playing time hasn’t convinced anyone that Nido is a starting catcher. Fans will point out how well Nido is doing recently but it’s all a case of the hits falling in. Over his last 12 games, Nido is batting .351 yet he has just an .027 ISO, which is pathetic.

For the season, Nido has a .255/.287/.284 line in 112 PA. It feels like it should be impossible to hit .255 and have just a .571 OPS. And it almost is. Since divisional play started in 1969, only 15 players have had 100 PA, hit .250 or higher and posted an OPS under .575 in a season. The Mets are well represented on this list, as in addition to Nido, Bob Bailor had a .250 AVG and a .573 OPS in 368 PA in 1983. They also get partial “credit” for Rey Sanchez, who had a .250 AVG and a .570 OPS in 369 PA while splitting time with the Mets and Mariners in 2003. Those two had the most PA on the list. Nido already has more PA than three players on the list and is just three behind 1993 Mike LaValliere, who has the lowest OPS of the bunch with a .552 mark.

WEST COAST BLUES – While some optimists out there thought the Mets could have a 10-game West Coast trip and finish with eight wins, the best they can do is a split with a win tonight. Here’s how they’ve done on recent West Coast road trips, counting the D’Backs as an honorary West Coast team

2021: 2-5 (Giants & Dodgers)
2020: None
2019: 2-5 (Dodgers & D’Backs)
2018: 4-2 (Giants & Dodgers)
2017: 3-4 (Dodgers & Giants) & 3-4 (Padres & Mariners)
2016: 4-4 (Padres & Dodgers)
2015: 3-4 (Padres & D’Backs) & 4-2 (Dodgers & Giants)

The only trips with a winning record came when the West Coast outing happened later in the year. The 2018 trip was in Aug/Sep and the 2015 winning series happened in July. Instead of petitioning the league not to play the Marlins at the end of the year, perhaps the Mets can advocate for their West Coast swing to happen in July or later.