We all knew the month of June was going to be a challenge, with the schedule being as tough as it was. For the month, Mets hitters had an OPS 100 points lower than they did in May. With the exception of Pete Alonso (.977) and Jeff McNeil (.867) – most Mets had a month to forget. Included among those who wished we went from May to July was Brandon Nimmo, who had a .255/.327/.398 slash line in June.
However, Nimmo’s poor play started and ended roughly a week earlier than the neat boundary of the month of June. From May 22 to June 24, he had a .233/.314/.340 line in 118 PA. Sometimes the hits don’t fall in and that’s okay. But in this stretch, Nimmo seemed eager to swing and rarely made great contact when he hit the ball.
Most people think of patience when they think of Nimmo. But he’s the ideal combo of patience and power when things are right. Typically, he’s more than willing to take a walk but he’s very happy to jump a pitch and drive it into the gap for extra-bases. But in this recent slump, we saw Nimmo swinging at pitcher’s pitches, ones that he could only foul off or hit for weak contact.
It was jarring to see this extended stretch where Nimmo was scuffling.
The poor results made me wonder if Nimmo was trying to play thru an injury. We’ve seen this before with him, most noticeably in 2019 but also last year when he went an extended period with virtually no power. And, indeed, there was an injury that at least partially explains the slump Nimmo experienced at this time.
Nimmo injured his wrist in late May and received a cortisone injection. He spoke to Mike Puma of the New York Post about his injury and said,
“[The wrist] definitely played into it,” Nimmo said. “When you’re not healthy and you’re not able to do everything at 100 percent or even 95 then, this is a hard game. Those guys on the mound, they are paid to get you out even when you are feeling good and they do a good job of it.”
That story appeared in the paper on June 11, the day after he hit a home run in Anaheim. The hope was that Nimmo was breaking out of his slump but the next 12 games weren’t exactly great, as he had just a .649 OPS with 3 XBH in 53 PA.
It’s too convenient to blame all of Nimmo’s woes on the wrist. The pitchers on the Padres, Dodgers, Brewers and Astros deserve some credit for his slump in this time period. But he didn’t exactly tear things up against the Nationals, Angels and Marlins, either.
The good news is that we’ve seen the return of Nimmo’s power here in the last week or so. In his last eight games, he has 10 hits, with five of those going for extra-bases, including two homers. He has an .899 OPS with a .308 BABIP in this span. The only thing missing is walks, as he has just 1 BB in 34 PA. While we’d like to see him get on base more with free passes, no one should complain about a .273 ISO.
In an ideal world, walks are the by product of a good approach at the plate. You have the discipline to lay off bad pitches while looking for the offering you can put a charge into. Nimmo exemplified this approach perfectly in his two healthiest seasons. In 2018 he had a 15.0 BB% and a .219 ISO and in 2020 it was 14.7 and .204, respectively.
Before the wrist injury this year, Nimmo was drawing walks at a healthy rate but he didn’t quite have the power that he had displayed previously. Now, in the last week, he has the power but not the walks. The power has been so good here recently that we haven’t really missed the walks. But it’s also a pretty small sample.
The hope is that for the remainder of 2022, we can see Nimmo put up both the walks and slugging that he has previously while healthy. Rightly so, everyone points to the return from the IL of both Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom as reasons for optimism for the Mets in the second half of the season. But a return to his previously established hitting levels from the Mets’ leadoff hitter will be a good thing to see, too.
Nimmo will return to his carreer level of .267/387/442/829 and 129 OPS+. He slumped in June. He still leads all NL CF a fWAR, runs, BA, OPS and wRC+. He is the best offensive centerfielder in the NL and probably the second best defensive centerfielder as well. He real is an All-Star caliber player. They should sign him to an extension for 5 / 100-110 soon. He might be worth more.
I love Nimmo but I can’t see how the Mets afford to resign him with how much pitching they need to pay for to rebuild after the season.
Do you really think that the Mets can’t afford it? There is no budget as long as they have the right people in place and don’t demand more than what they are worth . Nimmo is the right person. Stroman, Baez and Conforto priced themselves out.
I’m with Metsense – I don’t worry about the Mets not being able to afford Nimmo. The Mets should have playoff money that they haven’t had in years and it’s not like we have penny-pinching owners anymore. And there’s not really someone from the minors to take his place. If you move Marte to CF then you just have to get a RF. Sure, it’s cheaper to do that than get a CF but the Mets don’t need to make cheap decisions with Cohen – especially one that would make the defense worse.
Oh, I think the wrist injury was huge at the time. He didn’t hit for a week, it seemed, got the shot and played through it. I wondered if it was because of his contract year, or the club’s new toughness (read: Scherzer Effect), but he just couldn’t do anything for quite a while. I hope it’s better.
And, yes, he has the power and looks a lot better as a 15-18 HR guy.
I’d like to see him steal *some* bases, too.
And, of course, he’s a lot better when his OBP is .390+ compared to this year’s more pedestrian .360 range. I expect that number to come up.
That said: I’m a huge Nimmo fan and feel like he’s annually underrated. We’ll miss him when he’s gone.
For the first time, given his prolonged slump & declining OBP, I thought it might be interesting to flip-flop him with red-hot Marte. We’ve seen a number of games when Nimmo will be on 2nd and just die out there. Marte is such a pull hitter, it’s almost impossible for him to move Nimmo to 3rd. Whereas if Marte gets on, Nimmo benefits from the hole that opens up w/ the 1B on the bag, and Marte gets an opportunity to steal — and then Nimmo can naturally move him over to 3B.
I’m not arguing for it long term. Just that it’s worth considering, and for me, that’s a new consideration.
Great idea Jimmy!
My guess is that having a bigger hole on the right side because the 1B is holding a runner on probably means less to Nimmo than most other LHB. His ground ball hits are generally to the left of the 2B bag.
Still not sure why we are not hearing about an extension for Nimmo. He deserves it as do we to see him patrol CF Forman extended period.
For an, not Forman.
You still have the Rumble in the Jungle on your mind from the other article!
The time for an extension was two years ago. There’s no benefit for him to sign an extension now — and really no benefit to the Mets to make an offer that he won’t sign.
The Mets missed the extension window.
I get how the injury could hurt his power, but how does it explain his swinging at pitcher’s pitches?
I don’t have a definitive answer to that.
However, it’s certainly not unheard of for a player who’s scuffling to try to do too much to make up for it elsewhere.
I really like Nimmo, but not on an overpay.
Jus sat down with my caramel popcorn and diet Cole to enjoy the return of Scherzer and boom, mlb tv The event is in weather delay. Wondering if they won’t pull Scherzer in weather like this if the game is played.