You hear people say all the time that the Mets need to trade for a reliever. While virtually every team could use another quality arm in the pen, it seems to me that the idea that it’s a key need for the Mets seems … backwards. Just who would the Mets cut if they picked up a reliever right now?
The Mets are running an 8-man pen right now, the most they can have with a 5-man rotation. Here are their numbers so far this season:
Edwin Diaz – 1.89 ERA, 1.110 WHIP
Drew Smith – 2.67 ERA, 1.099 WHIP
Seth Lugo – 3.69 ERA, 1.200 WHIP
Adam Ottavino – 2.59 ERA, 1.021 WHIP
Joely Rodriguez – 4.50 ERA, 1.308 WHIP
Adonis Medina – 3.00 ERA, 1.143 WHIP
Colin Holderman – 2.63 ERA, 1.171 WHIP
Tommy Hunter – 1.29 ERA, 1.143 WHIP
The MLB averages to date for relievers are a 3.89 ERA and a 1.270 WHIP. That means the Mets have one reliever who’s below average – Rodriguez. Of course, he’s the only lefty and his ERA is poor in no small part due to how he was used earlier, combined with how many of his inherited runners have scored. In the Game Chatter the other day, I posed that question and Name came back with nine of his 19 runners that he left on base came round to score when Rodriguez was no longer in the game.
Rodriguez had the 6-12 game bad streak that virtually every reliever has. In six games from 5/29 – 6/8, he allowed 6 ER in 5 IP. Since then, in seven games, Rodriguez has the following line: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB and 11 Ks.
Could the Mets trade for a better lefty than Rodriguez? Absolutely. But do you want the Mets to sacrifice assets to get that lefty upgrade or do you want the manager to quit chasing the platoon advantage in the following inning with him? Let Rodriguez end the inning and cash in your winnings. Don’t get greedy and send him back to the mound after he’s sat in the dugout.
The Mets don’t need to add a big reliever as they do so much to be just a tiny bit more careful in how they use the relievers they do currently have. Lugo and Ottavino need to have at least a day off between appearances and Lugo should always be brought on at the start of an inning. And if that means pitching the rest of the righty relievers in higher-leverage spots – that’s fine.
Medina in particular seems to be under-utilized. The numbers above contain his lousy effort in COL where he gave up 5 ER. We should remember the fantastic outing he had in extra innings against the Dodgers, and last night’s 3 IP, 0 ER outing was instrumental in allowing the Mets to earn the comeback win.
But during the broadcast last night, Gary Cohen mentioned how Medina was in jeopardy of being sent to the minors when Chris Bassitt is activated from the IL today or tomorrow. Trevor Williams will move from the rotation back to the bullpen. And as a reliever this year, Williams has a 2.00 ERA and a 1.222 WHIP, so he’s solidly above average, too.
When Jacob deGrom gets activated from the IL in the not-too-distant future – we hope – that means the Mets will have to decide what to do with David Peterson, who aside from last night’s first outing since becoming a father, has been very good recently. They might send him to the minors to keep stretched out as a starter. Or they could move him to the pen.
The same holds true for further on down the road, when Tylor Megill returns from the IL. Some think he would be best utilized as a short reliever, airing it out and looking for triple-digit heat.
So, the Mets have the eight guys currently in the pen. They have Trevor Williams – who’s out of options – likely joining the pen when Bassitt returns. They have Megill and Peterson who may be in the running for a reliever role. Anyone else to consider as potential relievers before making a trade?
Why, yes. There’s Trevor May, who was considered one of the top setup men when the season started, who’s scheduled to be activated from the IL at the end of July. Oh, and there’s Stephen Nogosek in the minors, too. Nogosek has a 0.71 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP in his time in the majors this season.
All told, that’s 13 potential relievers, vying for eight spots.
It’s very difficult for me to advocate trading for a reliever at this point in time. However, things can certainly change between now and the trade deadline. There could be new injuries, there could be setbacks with guys still on the IL and, because of the nature of bullpen arms and small samples, several relievers currently performing well could end up stinking up the joint.
Until some of that actually happens, my preference is to keep the current arms and not to trade for outside help. Buck Showalter has been the best bullpen manager the Mets have had in at least a decade. But there’s still room for improvement on how he uses his relievers. And they’ve been really good overall up to this point, too.
If you’re hellbent on getting an upgrade at the trade deadline, perhaps your focus should be on hitting. Everyone wants to get an upgrade at DH but Dominic Smith has a .556 SLG and an .889 OPS since being recalled from the minors. We can use the next three weeks to see if Smith can continue to provide power. If he does, then the Mets can look for someone to replace Mark Canha as a starting outfielder.
Canha’s overall numbers are fine, as he has a 111 OPS+. But come playoff time, do the Mets want to be starting an outfield corner with poor speed and little power? Canha is 1-2 in SB attempts and he has just a .104 ISO. While the Mets are monitoring relievers and DHs to potentially acquire at the trade deadline these next three weeks, they should be looking at LFers, too.
I think the Mets have a number of needs, areas where they could upgrade. Whether it *all* has to be done or not, and the cost, is a separate discussion.
I think they lack a shutdown, 8th inning reliever.
Both Lugo and Smith appear like they could use time on the IL.
There’s no way that Medina or Tommy Hunter stands in the way of a quality, late-inning guy.
Down the road, we get May back and, maybe, Megill (who always profiles as a reliever in my mind). Basically, I’d like that reliable guy who can get us through the 8th to Diaz and I don’t see him on the roster.
I’ve felt since the winter that the Mets clearly needed a quality 4th outfielder (Canha is my 4th, actually; so the need is a 3rd — especially with the historic brittleness of Marte & Nimmo). You could argue that McNeil is our 4th, and he functions that way, but my preference would be for him to play 2B more regularly. I like Guillorme, but he doesn’t help much offensively — prefer him as defensive replacement with starts 2x a week. Ultimately, I don’t think this will be addressed this year. Let’s hope we stay healthy out there, because obviously Plummer and Lee aren’t going to cut it.
And they clearly need another bat who can provide power. Bell, for example (though I imagine that will be a very tough, down-to-the-deadline negotiation). I personally can’t sit around and hope that Dom suddenly starts to hit and will maintain it.
Short-term, I ride Dom and hope for the best and I bring up Vientos. He’s a hot bat. Traditionally, he’s struggled at first every time he reaches a new level. But it *might* be that Dom and Vientos can put the Mets in a good position, particularly as they contemplate trades for more proven bats.
I don’t want to trade any of the top 5-6 guys for a rental.
I don’t get the random throwaway comment about Canha.
The whole article is spent talking about how we shouldn’t be looking for a reliever upgrade because the guys there are posting good numbers, yet that argument is thrown out for Canha?
The purpose was to give an idea for discussion besides what’s already been discussed.
We’re supposed to believe that the Holdermans, Hunters and Medinas of the world will fall apart if they’re given higher-leverage spots. We haven’t witnessed them getting many chances in those spots but they’ve been good when they have. How has Canha done in the same opportunities?
What’s going to give the club a better boost in the stretch run and beyond – a reliever who will get around 20 innings and will have to improve upon what has already been strong performance or an OF who will get around 200 PA and have to beat a .109 ISO?
Well, okay:
Tommy Hunter is 35 years old, coming off what looked like a career-ending injury. He’s a career 4.08 ERA. On his 8th team. But you want to quote his 1.29 ERA based on 7 innings with the Mets?
I love the guy, but I love top-shelf bullpen even more.
Medina has pitched in 16 games in his entire career. His “stuff” looks fringy, but he’s done well so far. A different look. I’m not remotely considering him for the job of lockdown 8th inning guy.
I do really like Holderman. I can *see* how he gets guys out (I look for that in a pitcher). He’s thrown 13 innings in his ML career. I can imagine him getting some valuable out for the Mets, even in the playoffs. But I want more talent back in the pen if we can get it.
Call me crazy.
And if everyone is healthy and available – Hunter is the 12th or 13th guy in the bullpen. He’s doing fine right now and he’ll likely be replaced before the trade deadline.
On August 1 the bullpen should be: Diaz, Lugo, Smith, Ottavino, May, Holderman, Williams and Rodriguez — with Peterson, Megill, Medina, Nogosek and Hunter as depth for the final two months of the season. Unless something changes significantly between now and the trade deadline – that’s a solid bullpen and a playoff-caliber one, too.
Your Aug 1st is good but it would be better to replace Rodriguez with a better reliever.
A offense could another bat no matter well Dom does (or Davis does)
Catcher is the weakness offensive position so Contreras would be the target but I don’t want to trade any of our six top prospects and next three ranked pitching prospects for a rental. Alvarez would be the simplest solution if he hits in AAA. Use him like the 2015 version of Conforto’s use.
Third base is the second worse offense position so a RHB third baseman would be ideal, Escobar has good numbers against LHP , 876 OPS. (Too bad Baty isn’t ready)
Canha is good and McNeil being the 4th outfielder is working well. Guillorme will get some starts as well.
Jankowski is a good tool to used as a PH or defense replacement but he is a luxury. Jankowski or Davis or Smith would replaced on the roster by the new bat. Their fate is in their hands.
If you wanted to play that game every player who isn’t an All star should be up for discussion, so still seems weird that of all the guys to call out that you chose Canha when he’s above average overall hitter statistically despite his lack of power. I guess it’s simply because you don’t like him.
How about Lindor who has the same OPS as Canha?
Guillorme back to reality with a .507 OPS since June 1 while playing everyday
Eduardo Escobar with his sub 300 OBP and 91 OPS+
Bassitt/Carasco ERAs over 4 for the season
And of course our catchers… enough said
Also, no reason to view trades as mutually exclusive, it’s not one or the other.
I think your premise is highly flawed.
But, if you want to write it up and state your case – I’ll be happy to publish it.
Oh, sorry, I typed too fast. My comment addressed all needs — not just reliever.
I think they would benefit by the addition of another quality outfielder, using McNeil out there less often.
Sorry that threw you.
I request, humbly, a catcher with an OPS north of .600
I know it’s a lot to ask.