It’s been a streaky season for Luis Guillorme.
He started off the year 0-12
From 4/19 – 6/1 he posted a .419/.506/.527 line in 88 PA
From 6/2 – 7/2 he had a .470 OPS in 78 PA
Since July 3, he’s 9-20 (.452) with a 1.242 OPS in 24 PA
At least part of the slump in June can be blamed on a blister in the middle of his left hand, one that made him wear a batting glove to try to remove some of the sting.
During the two hot streaks, the hits have fallen in at amazing rates for Guillorme. Overall for the year, he has a .355 BABIP. Lifetime, he has a .328 mark in 573 PA, roughly one year’s worth of playing time.
It’s a little odd because we know it takes defensive numbers longer to stabilize than offensive ones. Yet with Guillorme, we’re pretty sure we have a handle on him defensively but no one’s quite sure what his offensive profile will really look like going forward. Are his bat-to-ball skills that elite that he’ll regularly post above-average BABIPs, even with his lack of speed? Can he really deliver an XBH in 5.5% of his ABs, like he’s done this season? After posting strikeout rates of 20% and 25% in 2019 and 2020, can he really maintain his current 13.2% rate?
Does Buck Showalter give him more starts at 3B going forward? Eduardo Escobar has not been good but he offers the threat of a HR ball, which can’t be completely ignored given the team’s below-average output in homers.
A manager has to have a “feel” for certain situations, and how often to play Guillorme when everyone is healthy will be one of those cases, at least for me.
Oh, good, I finally could a “catch all” thread.
Here’s the statistic I want: RBI Efficiency Rating.
A way to convert the raw counting numbers into a rate statistic. Because one man’s 35 RBI is not the same as another man’s 35 RBI and it all has to do with opportunity, base runners.
Does such a statistic exist? I can’t find it.
I’d like a really smart math guy with a computer to assess values based on the Run Expectancy Matrix for all the situations with runners on base that a batter faces. First base, two outs; bases loaded, nobody out; and so on.
We recognize that RBI is largely a team-dependent statistic (outside of the guy who can park it over the wall). This new stat would who is producing in those situations and who, perhaps, is compiling numbers based on a plethora of opportunities.
Any ideas?
David Pinto’s Baseball Musings has an RBI% Calculator that I’ve referenced here many times.
https://baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py
It just looks at raw opportunities – so not exactly what you’re looking for. But much more context than just RBIs alone. A 20% mark is very good. When George Bell had 112 RBIs in 1992, he had a whopping 302 runners on base when he came to bat. So, his high RBI total was due in large part to that. His 17.22 RBI% was the 37th-best mark in the majors among those with at least 100 runners on base. His 112 RBIs was the 5th most in the majors.
Forget 3B,Guillorme starts every day at 2B. Let Canha and MccNeil alternate at DH and LF. 3B? Hope Escobar breaks out. Go after a veteran,Drury,?
Analytics are right,the home run ie very important. Mets need anther hr hitter or maybe two.
Alderson said that they need relief pitching and a hitter.
Andrew Chafin on the Tigers should be their primary target. He would solidify the back end of the relief corps and he is a LHP. Matt Moore , LHP of the Rangers would be next.
Drury on the Reds would be my primary hitter because he is versatile and can play different positions and as a hitter he slashing 276/334/536/870 with 18 HRS.
Another Red, Tommy Pham ,OF, has a 790 OPS vs LHP and a 736 OPS over-all and they could packaged both for Vientos. There is no pathway to MLB with the Mets and and it would be an offense boost for the Mets.
Otherwise, Bell or Mancini would be alright.
Right now, it will be hard to figure out what the market will be.
For the trade deadline I’d like Chafin and Robertson for the pen. With DeGrom coming back (and assuming he’s healthy, big if) that sets up our pitching staff in the following way:
DeGrom
Scherzer
Walker
Bassitt
Carrasco
Diaz (cl)
Robertson (8th)
Chafin (l)
May
Smith
Lugo
Williams
Peterson or Rodriguez
We raise the floor and the ceiling with this setup and it feels pretty comfortable with a lead after 6. Of our top prospects, I’m willing to include Mauricio and Vientos at this point if absolutely necessary.
Now getting to a lead after 6….well, if Escobar can find his power stroke consistently, and if Lindor catches fire, maybe we can survive without an imported DH, but it sounds like Alderson is dead set on getting one.
I like JimmyP’s stat idea as well as the link that Brian provided. I thought the Mets might fare well on the RBI% stat, but Alonso was the top hitter at 18 and then Lindor was ranked somewhere in the 30s (hard to count.) Nimmo was in the 60s and McNeil in the 80s.
I’ve been thinking about the need for a stat too. This is a cousin of TBs, but not just bases that the batter generates for himself, but the total tonnage of bases gained. A single counts as 1 but so does a sacrifice bunt or fly, moving a runner along with a ground ball to the right side. A grand slam counts as 10 (4 for the hitter, 3 for the runner on first, etc.). I haven’t thought it through, but a walk, SB, or HBP could also count for 1. A single that drives in a runner from 2nd would count as 3.
I have no clue as to how this data could be collected or if it is already collected. To be fair, there may already be a stat that measures this.
Any thoughts?
PS – great series win in Atlanta. Mets starters outclassed the Braves starters and we won playing their game today, with the long ball.
I think you’re looking for Linear Weights, which is essentially an improvement upon what you suggest. A single can advance a runner two bases, so it’s better than a walk or hit by pitch – that type of stuff has to be accounted for in the metric you desire.
wRC is a counting stat while wRC+ is a rate stat that has the added benefit of being both park and league adjusted. You can read more about them here:
https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/wrc/
On another note…
At some point, the Mets get JDG, May, and Megill back. At full strength, Megill, Peterson, and Williams are all in the bullpen. (Key words are full strength!)
Starters: JDG, Max, Bassitt, Carrasco, Walker.
Bullpen: Diaz, Lugo, Ottavino, May, Smith, Megill, Peterson, Williams.
That’s 13 pitchers and a pretty enviable staff. If there is an injury to the starters, then WIlliams, Megill, and Peterson have all proven they can hold down the fort. Medina, Holderman, Joely have all proven they have some value in the pen.
If they can trade expendables (e.g. Dom, JD, Inciarte, Jank) for a top-shelf relief pitcher, go for it. But what team is going to do that? I would not want to see a Top-20 prospect go in a trade.
Things that can change this dramatically:
1. The injury situation changes and several of these pitchers go down.
2. The draft brings some legit depth to the minors, making some of the current top-20 expendable.
For my money, I think they should focus solely on getting a legit DH. I don’t think we’re gonna be happy with Vientos production right away. He’s shown to be a slow starter when promoted and at best, he’s a poor man’s version of Joey Gallo without any defensive assets.
While I am ranting, I think Escobar is going to end up with a 2022 stat line that resembles his career averages. Which means he’s going to get red hot down the stretch.
I think McCann/Nido is a solid duo while Alvarez gets ready for 2023. Their defense and handling of the staff is almost completely overlooked.
I am so bummed that today’s game is postponed. I was all set for the showdown and throwdown with Stroman. Apparently, Walker had dinner at his house last night, FWIW.
LFGM!
I’ll be heading on vacation soon but wanted to talk about these Juan Soto rumors.
Juan Soto is a truly great franchise changing player and he has two more (expensive) seasons of arbitration ahead of him for the team that acquires him. We also know that he’d want more than the roughly 15 years at $30 Million that he was offered if the Mets want to extend him.
It has been suggested that the minimum offer from the Mets should include Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos (apparently everyone has soured on Ronny Mauricio’s value). All love and respect to Soto and the great things I know he’d do over the length of a Met career, but I may not recover, as a fan, from the anger this sort of deal would cause.
The Mets cannot give the Nationals three impact prospects (two of which with sky high ceilings) in exchange for a single bat that also continues to swell the team payroll. Alvarez will be the starting catcher in 2023, Vientos should already be in the majors and Baty could shift Eduardo Escobar to second base as early as next season as well. This deal could absolutely help the Mets win in 2022 but it would cripple the team in 2023 and beyond.
If the Nationals want Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Alex Ramirez the Mets can talk but the Mets should not be trading Alvarez at all, for even Juan Soto.
Another, perhaps better fit for a high impact player would be the Mets trading for the disgruntled Shohei Ohtani. The DH/SP is only secured through 2023 but would also mean that he comes with a lower price tag. I’m not sure what package would entice the Angels to part with their All Star but I see him as a better fit for the Mets than Soto.