Mets starters have been outstanding the last two weeks

So much was made of the results of the Mets’ starting pitchers at the beginning of the season and rightly so. In their first 14 games, Mets’ starters threw 77 innings and combined for a 2.10 ERA, which was terrific. The thing is, Mets’ SP has been even better the last two weeks. In their last 14 games, the team’s starters have given 84 innings and allowed 18 earned runs. That’s a 1.93 ERA. And let’s not shortchange the relievers during this span. The pen has contributed 46.1 IP with 11 ER for a 2.14 ERA in the last 14 games.

It’s no surprise this streak started right around the time that Max Scherzer returned from the IL. Scherzer has made three starts in this span and has a 1.40 ERA in 19.1 IP. For the year, Scherzer has a 2.22 ERA, which would be the sixth-best mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. He now has pitched the same number of games as he did in his fantastic stretch with the Dodgers last year, the one no one thought he could duplicate. Here’s how the partial two seasons stack up:

21 LAD: 7-0, 68.1 IP, 1.98 ERA, 89 Ks, 0.820 WHIP
22 NYM: 6-1, 69.0 IP, 2.22 ERA, 90 Ks, 0.884 WHIP

He’s allowed two more earned runs than he did with the Dodgers. He’s been outstanding and it’s a shame he didn’t make the All-Star team. The combination of the sheer number of other Mets who did, along with his missed time, makes it understandable – not right, mind you – why he didn’t. He’s been everything the Mets could have hoped for when they signed him.

Taijuan Walker has been All-Star worthy, too, with his 7-2 record and 2.55 ERA in 91.2 IP. In his three starts in the 14-game stretch under consideration here, Walker has a 1.89 ERA in 19 IP. Since his second-worst start of the year on Jun 2, Walker has appeared in seven games with a 1.80 ERA and the Mets are 5-2 in his starts. And while there was a concern over his lack of strikeouts earlier in the year, Walker has 48 Ks in his last 45 IP.

Carlos Carrasco has 10 wins at the All-Star break but his pitching has been a bit up and down all year. After a rough month of June, with three starts where he gave up at least 5 ER, Carrasco has been lights out in July. In his three starts in this stretch, Carrasco has a 1.56 ERA in 17.1 IP and the Mets have a 3-0 record in his outings. He’s allowed just one homer in this stretch. After allowing a 2.01 HR/9 in 2021, Carrasco has a 1.00 mark this season, with 11 HR in 99 IP – quite the improvement.

Because he was sidelined with Covid, Chris Bassitt has made just two starts in our 14-game stretch. But he’s been really good, too, with a 2.19 ERA in 12.1 IP. After pitching like a replacement player (or worse) in five games from May 19-June 8, Bassitt has been back to his 2021 self in his last five outings, even with the Covid disruption in the middle. In that span, Bassitt has a 2.41 ERA in 33.2 IP.

The weak link in this span has been David Peterson, who has a 5.00 ERA in two games, in which he managed to pitch just nine innings combined. He’ll get a chance later today to improve those numbers. If Peterson was the weak spot, the Mets got an unexpected boost from Trevor Williams, who made one start and threw seven scoreless innings. Williams also appeared as a reliever during this span and gave three innings without a run in a combo shutout versus the Cubs, the team the Mets acquired him from at the deadline last year. Since the trade, Williams has 88 IP with the Mets and a 3.38 ERA. Not too shabby for a throw-in.

Of course, the Mets expect to get a boost for the rotation with the return of Jacob deGrom, which could happen within the first week after they return to play in the second half. That’s if they opt to let his simulated game during the break be his last tune up before being activated. Even if they give him an additional rehab start in the minors, deGrom should be back before the next showdown series with the Braves, which starts August 4.

It’s kind of remarkable how the Mets have gone 58-34 without deGrom and with Scherzer missing seven weeks. If before the season started, you had said the Mets had received just 11 starts from their aces before the All-Star break and they were still 24 games above .500 – you would have signed up for that in a flash. And now we can say that the time off those pitchers received should serve them well in the playoffs.

If the Mets make a deep postseason run, it’s entirely possible that the concept of load management – popular in the NBA when older stars are given time off during the regular season to keep them fresh for the playoffs – will make its way into MLB. And it won’t be just deGrom and Scherzer. The Dodgers have suffered a bunch of injuries to their starting pitchers the past few years and have done well in both the regular season and playoffs. In the last seven years, only seven Dodgers pitchers have made 30 starts in a season. And three of those came in 2015.

It helps to have depth starters like Tylor Megill, Peterson and Williams around. It’s something the Mets will have to consider if this strategy they’ve stumbled into is one they want to continue in future years. Megill and Peterson are under team control for 2023 but Williams will be a free agent.