In the last 28 days, the Mets are 14-8 for a .636 winning percentage, which is slightly better than their season-long mark of .622 after 98 games. And, sure, there were a bunch of games against second-division clubs in that span. But there were also eight games against the Braves, Padres and Yankees, so it was not all pushovers, either. Mets fans should be happy with how things have played out here recently.
With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, it seems pertinent to see how the club is doing, both season-long and the last month or so. The season-to-date stats are all readily available. The ones for the last month are, too, but people generally don’t dig to find those. Let’s look at those, starting with the hitters:
We see the team has a .708 OPS, and with 90 runs in 22 games, that’s an average just barely over four runs-per-game. Marte and Alonso have been carrying the load while newcomer Vogelbach has a shiny OBP in limited action. Probably none of us felt like Lindor was one of the better hitters in this stretch, which speaks as much to the struggles of others as it does to his own output.
We’re used to seeing Escobar struggling but not so much seeing Nimmo down with him in production. Rotten numbers from catchers has been a season-long thing but McNeil hitting that way is a shock. The offense would look a lot better if at least one of the McNeil-Nimmo duo was performing to expectations. The question the front office should be asking is if the McNeil-Nimmo numbers are just a normal slump or if there’s something bigger going on.
It would be easy to answer “slump” if the memory of McNeil’s 2021 season wasn’t fresh in our minds. And while he made the All-Star team this year, he’s really been at a different level of performance for most of the season after a hot start. In his last 242 PA, McNeil has a .686 OPS. Last year, we kept hoping for an All-Star from the pitching staff to revert to form and it never happened. We should at least be aware that it’s among the possibilities that McNeil doesn’t turn back to the .942 OPS guy he was the first 22 games of the season.
Speaking of pitchers, here’s how they’ve done since the start of July:
Four of the five starting pitchers have been great and the fifth one, Peterson, looked better before yesterday’s poor relief outing. Besides, Peterson is getting ready to be replaced by Jacob deGrom in the rotation.
Before we move on to the bullpen, let’s take a minute to appreciate how awesome the just-turned-38 Scherzer has been. This look includes all of his games since being activated from the IL. He’s a baseball senior citizen and all he’s done in his last five games is post a 1.39 ERA, a 0.835 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 11.25 in 32.1 IP. In his two starts in this stretch against two of the top teams in the majors – Braves & Yankees – he’s posted 14 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB and 15 Ks. It’s thrilling to have him on our side.
And the relievers haven’t done too shabby, either. Diaz, Lugo and Ottavino have been providing excellent late-inning production, with a combined 1.21 ERA and a 0.775 WHIP in 29.2 IP. And while some will say that it’s Diaz pulling the other two up, Lugo & Ottavino have combined for a 1.86 ERA, which is outstanding from your main setup men.
The performance of Smith has certainly been worrisome and Rodriguez has not been good against RHB here lately. He’s faced 14 righties in this stretch and they have a 1.038 OPS against him. In the same span, he’s faced just 11 LHB and they have just a .125 AVG. Do they need to upgrade from Rodriguez or do they need to stop having him face so many righty batters?
Anyone reading this site for awhile knows my stance on LOOGYs. But they’re easier to carry if your SP go deep and you have a shutdown closer. Early exits for the starters are no longer the norm and Rodriguez has been money when he enters the game. The Mets are in a position to carry a lefty specialist and Rodriguez has limited lefties to a .216/.344/.333 line in 61 PA. That’s not elite by any stretch. But it’s not horrible, either. You’d welcome an upgrade but it’s far from critical to get one.
My hope is that once deGrom joins the rotation and gets a few starts under his belt that Buck Showalter uses Williams as a regular short reliever. And my preference would be for Medina to replace Hunter on the roster. Yet that’s not a big deal, especially if Showalter refuses to use him in high-leverage situations unless absolutely necessary.
The big unknown is if Trevor May can come back and become the late-inning option they envisioned for him this year. If so, that takes pressure off Smith. It also greatly reduces the need to add a reliever. Unfortunately, we’ll have no idea if May can provide the team that type of relief before the trade deadline passes.
There’s never been a team that couldn’t use another late-inning reliever. The question is: How big is that need on the 2022 Mets? My opinion is that it’s nowhere near the need that it was for the 2019 Nationals.
My preference would be to add a proven bat, at either C or OF, and a righty-hitting one, too. It would be a lot easier to rest Nimmo if his replacement didn’t have a 34 OPS+. And a righty could also split time at DH with Vogelbach.
The white whale is Juan Soto but it seems unlikely that he’ll get dealt at the deadline unless a team overwhelms the Nationals. And it’s not hard to imagine the Nationals invoking a premium to trade him inside the division to the Mets.
It’s my take that Willson Contreras is a better fit for the club this season. He’ll certainly cost less in prospects and the upgrade from McCann/Nido to Contreras is likely greater than the upgrade from Canha to Soto. Contreras has a 135 OPS+ while McCann has a 55 and Nido has a 45 OPS+. Soto has a 154 OPS+ while Canha has a 114. And with Francisco Alvarez in the wings, the fact that Contreras is a pure rental is not a deal breaker.
As long as the Mets are going to engage the Cubs on Contreras, they might as well get a reliever, too. Unless you count Drew Smyly as a reliever, the Cubs don’t really have a lefty worth getting. Which means that veteran closer David Robertson, with a 1.83 ERA and a 0.992 WHIP in 39.1 IP should be the guy. Of course, Robertson would be used as a setup man.
The price will be high and the Mets and their fans will have to accept that. But the goal is to win the World Series. The goal for the 2022 Mets is not to win a deadline deal. Alvarez is off limits but every other prospect should be available. It’s fun to imagine this lineup:
Nimmo
Contreras
Lindor
Alonso
Vogelbach
Marte
McNeil
Escobar
Canha
You could switch Lindor and Marte but Lindor was my choice for the higher spot in the order to avoid three consecutive righties in the lineup. Contreras has been batting second with the Cubs and his placement there is to give him some comfort while coming to a new team. And while not a base stealer, the Canha-Nimmo tandem at 9-1 puts the two guys who work counts the most hitting back-to-back.
Here’s hoping Billy Eppler gets us an impact bat while keeping Alvarez in the organization.
Mets have been playing really good baseball, but for some reason it doesn’t feel like it. And yet, a few days ago the Braves had gotten within .5 games of the lead. Now it’s 3 games. The offense could use a spark – a RH hitting platoon partner for Vogelbach as you mention. If the asking price for Contreras is too high, I wouldn’t mind seeing a Wilmer Flores reunion. He’s been playing very well, offers some positional versatility, and would probably receive a heroes welcome back from the fans. I also would really like to see one of the following relievers enter the picture: Robertson, Chafin, or Gregory Soto. Robertson handles lefties well even as a righty, so he’d be my first choice. But adding any of those guys to a revitalized 2nd half pen (Lugo has supposedly been making some mechanical adjustments which came into focus last night), along with a solid RH DH platoon would be a nice trade deadline. A great trade deadline would probably be Contreras/Robertson.
I felt the same way as your first sentence. It caught me off guard that they’ve got a better winning percentage in their last 22 than overall.
For the record, while it makes sense, my sincere hope is that there is no Flores reunion. I’m done with hearing about the tv show “Friends” and how he cried when he thought he was being traded and the fanbase’s insistence that he’s some great clutch hitter when he’s not. Been there, done that, don’t want to do it again.
Hear ya – but he would make our offense better against left handed pitching. An upgrade from JD Davis for sure, and can play the field a bit more. Not saying I’d make him our number one target or anything, but as a fall back, it could work.
The player I left out in my response earlier who is the real white whale for me….Ohtani. If anyone can make it happen, it’s Eppler with the history between the two. Doesn’t solve the DH platoon issue, but it does give us the most dynamic player in the sport, insurance in the OF and in the rotation, and in my opinion makes us the world series favorite. I’d include any of our top 5 prospects except Alvarez. Could you imagine Ohtani pitching in relief as a swing man in the playoffs?
Getting Ohtani is certainly interesting and something that Eppler should investigate. And unlike with Soto, you’d think the Angels would be happy to move him to the Mets.
Much like with Soto & Contreras, my first question is if they can get him without giving up Alvarez? That’s the only deal breaker with me. He’s great insurance for deGrom opting out and signing elsewhere as they have him for his last year of arbitration in 2023.
And much like with my speculation in the article – might as well get a reliever in an Ohtani deal, too. There’s old friend Aaron Loup, who hasn’t been nearly as good as he was last year. Still, likely an upgrade over Rodriguez.
One thing that potentially intrigues me – and I’m surprised hasn’t been mentioned – is re-acquiring Noah Syndergaard with the idea of using him as a reliever. He’s essentially been a league-average starter with a 94 mph fastball. Maybe a move to the pen gets him back in the upper 90s.
Noah left by choice. Not sure fans would be excited about that reunion unless he came in guns blazing. I think the pressure would get to him.
I am not a fan of reunions in general.
I know he was hated here at 360 — which I found very hard to read — but I’ve always liked and appreciated Wilmer. He can hit LHP and that kind of modest move is the type of thing the Mets should do if Contreras fails.
He’s not my top choice.
Drury remains an interesting option, too. And Mancini. And probably some folks I haven’t even considered.
Drury would be a good get too
On Contreras, there are two issues which give me pause:
1) The price (w/ Astros also in the hunt for him). There’s a point where I walk away.
2) Harder to measure, but real: Our veteran pitchers seems to like throwing to McCann and Nido. These are great receivers w/ positive relationships. Sliding an offensive catcher back there might undercut the staff — or maybe it’s not that big a deal, that Contreras is good enough. Or maybe you decide to upgrade on JD Davis and focus on the pen. Go with Defense First at catcher and live with it. Who does Max want back there? How about Bassitt? Jake and Walker?
Today, right now: I hope to get Contreras and Robertson for Mauricio & Dom (if anyone on earth would take him) & some lower prospect or two. A guy like Szapucki, fine, he’s useless anyway, though I suspect that Cubs would want more until the 11th hour. In terms of use, I have Contreras DH against LHP and catch most of the time against RHP. (Makes no sense to have Vogelbach and his .900 OPS sit, ever, against RHP.) Three times a week behind the plate, roughly.
This is a game of chicken. Cubs will hold out until the bitter hand, asking for the moon.
Who blinks? Who moves on?
I don’t think any one, single move is a must.
Other than Mets must improve pen and add a bat against LHP (JD not cutting it).
Bat bat bat bat…
Uh oh , Dom Smith for Joey Gallo….
A few stats:
– For the month that Scherzer was out, the Mets ERA was over 6. That’s according to the radio boys.
– According to ESPN, the Mets have a .910 winning percentage when scoring five runs or more.
Hence, they need a bat and a Scherzer to stay healthy. The radio guys surmised that Scherzer’s production plus his coaching up the other pitchers has been a difference maker.
I haven’t verified these numbers.
Scherzer’s last start before the IL was May 18. His first start back was July 5. In the 41 games he was out, the Mets’ ERA was 4.45
It was the starters. Sorry, I didn’t have time to proofread.
Still wrong. Starters allowed 118 ER in 215.2 IP for a 4.92 ERA
The Mets are 51-5 when scoring 4 or more runs is how I understand it.
I just checked and this is true. And one of the losses they scored 12 runs.
Wow! Very impressive and very telling!
To answer the question that was posed, an arm. Robertson, Chafin, Givens and Fulmer in that order.
The Yankees moved quantity than quality in their trade . If they want to trade Contreras they can satisfy the Cubs and not deal Alvarez, Baty, Ramirez or Allan . A Cubs package would solve the Mets problems. Chafin or Fulmer is Plan B along with a trade for Drury is Plan C .
It impact arm is The least they should settle for at the trade deadline.
we need a barm.
Yes, a barm.
Im confounded by the win now v. prospects thing.
Id empty the farm for Soto and not bat an eye. For as awesome as Alvarez is, hes not played a single game of big league ball. Just ask Joey Bart how that goes, or Jarred Kelenick for that matter.
I get it, stop yelling at me, Alvarez is different. So is Soto. Generational talent. Mays, McCovey, Aaron, Bonds (pre-steroids) etc. Any chance to get him is worth it, and he’s what – 23, with 3 post seasons under control before FA.
I agree Chris. Especially after signing Perada, who may be better. The Mets made the Vogelbach move knowing that there’s a very slim chance of getting Soto, especially from the Nationals, especially for Cohen.
Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Megill = Soto; get it done. Then get Ohtani, LOL
Alvarez is now the top prospect in all of MLB, according to mlb.com
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/
Maybe Parada ends up better – but I would gladly bet the opposite. I wouldn’t call it likely but there’s a reasonable chance – double digits – that Alvarez becomes a guy that posts OPS+ in the range of Soto’s career 159 mark, at least in the first half of his career. I’m holding onto the guy who looks like Mike Piazza as a hitter.
I agree. Back up the truck in order to get Soto. Ditto for Ohtani. There are no guarantees. Alvarez seems like he could be different but you don’t get many chances to add bona fide 1st ballot HOF players and the Mets should jump at the chance.
Haven’t discussed JD Martinez yet. He’d be a great get for DH and Boston is done. They need to sell.
They are four games back.
Okay, I’ll play:
Martinez crushes LHP. Murders it. Destroys it.
And he’s very good against RHP: .773 OPS.
However, we already have Vogelbach, who is 906 OPS vs. RHP (2/3 of competition). Vogel slugs .528; JD is at .438 vs. RHP.
So if you trade for Martinez, you give up some chips, and take on a lot of salary, and are forced to sit or flip Vogelbach. Statistically, you get worse vs. RHP and a lot better against LHP.
I guess it’s possible, but requires Boston to fade this week and for the price tag to be realistic. I have to wonder if there’s another easier (cheaper) upgrade vs. LHP.
At this point, the more irons in the fire, the better. Eppler has a lot of sorting to do.
Contreras seems like a more flexible piece and allows you, at times, to have both Vogelbach and Contreras in the same lineup.
I’m not particularly excited about Mancini, but he’s better than JD.
Okay, I got a crazy name for you that surprised me, since he’s a guy I’ve never liked.
I started by looking at splits across MLB, guys who stood out against LHP and might be available.
Came up with Farmer and Drury, Reds; Happ, Cubs; Blackman, Rockies.
Of course, JD Martinez destroys LHP, but only good against RHP. Contreras very good, too.
The guy who shocked me was Victor Robles!
.834 OPS vs. LHP. .501 vs RHP.
.338 BA vs. LHP; .185 vs. RHP.
He’s being used the wrong way.
I like that he can play excellent defense, can run the bases, swipe a few. He could take Jankowski’s spot (even though we love Jankowski — or I do — and Robles is an idiot). Maybe allows you to give Marte’s legs a rest here or there and provides a backup if, heaven forfend, somebody goes down.
Not the answer that Contreras would be, but maybe a piece that helps.
Anyway, the name surprised me and I’m sharing it. Might not be a fit in the clubhouse.
My answer to the question is a bat. My preference is Contreras. Our hitting production from the catcher has been awful. That improvement over McCann and Nido is better than getting 30 innings out of a reliever.
Plus, Lugo looked like his old self last night.
I would also take Ohtani over Soto. He had extreme value as a two way player.
Alvarez,Baty and Mauricio for Soto…
After yesterday’s acquisition, I’d switch back to reliever as top need…but…
Drury, Ohtani, Loup. All controllable for 2023, which gives Mets plenty of deGrom insurance. Deepen the pen with starters.