On the possibility of Joely Rodrigez being a playoff LOOGY

For years, the Mets acted like the key to a successful bullpen was to have as many lefties as they possibly could, despite how rotten said lefties were. And what made those lefties special was their ability to retire LHB. If you were a lefty who did better against RHB you were discarded. If you got LHB out, you were praised to the heavens, regardless of how you did against righties.

And because the Mets declared it important, many fans did the same exact thing. These fans had no problem with running the pen to the benefit of has-beens and never-weres like Scott Rice, Robert Carson and Tim Byrdak, despite how few innings they pitched and how lousy their overall results were. They were lefty relievers, for Pete’s sake! What more needed to be said?

The Mets moved away (slightly) from this fascination with lefty relievers and then MLB passed a rule requiring that a reliever had to stay in the game for a minimum of three batters, or the end of an inning, which cut down a lot on the matchup masturbation that the club loved so much.

In 2022, the Mets opened the year with two lefty relievers on the roster. And while the manager did not cater to those lefties the way that his predecessors did, he did try to give them the platoon advantage when reasonable. But neither Joely Rodriguez nor Chasen Shreve were having a good year. Yet they held sacred cow status as lefties, seeing better righties sent to the minors so they could retain their slots, regardless of how much better the RHP was.

Finally, the Mets cut bait with Shreve, leaving Rodriguez as the lone lefty in the pen.

Right now, with the eight relievers the Mets have in their pen, Rodriguez has the sixth-worst ERA. And the only two with worse numbers come with an asterisk. Trevor May has missed most of the season and Mychal Givens was significantly better in 40 games with the Cubs than he’s been in eight games with the Mets. There are strong reasons to believe that a healthy May and Givens are both better pitchers than Rodriguez.

Plus, the Mets have made no bones about Tylor Megill returning to the club as a reliever. A starter will likely move to the pen for the playoffs, there’s the possibility that the club will only carry 12 pitchers for the postseason and there’s always the possibility of David Peterson being picked for the playoffs because of his ability to go three or more innings, if needed.

Is it possible the Mets go to the playoffs with an all-righty pen? Or is it that they’ll trust Peterson to be a reliever over Rodriguez?

While being no fan of lefty relievers, it seems very unlikely to me that the Mets would willingly go to the postseason with no one in the pen to play matchups with in the seventh or eighth innings. And while it killed me to see Terry Collins jump thru hoops to get his lefty reliever in the game in meaningless situations, it would be nice to have a lefty to face Juan Soto or other big lefty bats once the starter is out and before Edwin Diaz comes in the game.

Rodriguez has been good versus LHB this year, as he’s held them to a .593 OPS in 71 PA. The thing is, he’s been even better than that here lately. In his last 20 ABs versus lefties, LHB are 1-20. That seems really good on the surface. But how does it stack up with other lefty relievers? Here are the southpaw relievers on the six other clubs in the NL in the hunt for the playoffs, ones with a good shot to make the postseason roster, and their best consecutive stretch of 20 ABs versus LHB.

0-20: A.J. Minter
1-20: Dylan Lee, Alex Vesia, Tim Hill
2-20: Tyler Matzek, Packy Naughton, Brent Suter, Taylor Rogers
3-20: Josh Hader, Brad Hand, Genesis Cabrera,
4-20: Jose Alvarado, Hoby Milner, David Price, Adrian Morejon

Rodriguez more than holds his own with the best that other teams’ playoff lefties have done this season.

Here are our 16 relievers ranked by OPS allowed to LHB:

.389 – Vesia
.412 – Lee
.458 – Morejon
.468 – Naughton
.493 – Minter
.548 – Rogers
.593 – Rodriguez
.598 – Price
.606 – Suter
.621 – Hill
.642 – Cabrera
.653 – Milner
.664 – Hand
.708 – Matzek
.709 – Alvarado
.729 – Hader

It’s certainly a surprise to me that Rodriguez ranks in seventh place in OPS allowed to LHB. Now let’s see how he does in WHIP versus LHB:

0.558 – Lee
0.711 – Naughton
0.750 – Minter
0.833 – Morejon
0.886 – Suter
0.900 – Rogers
0.977 – Vesia
1.024 – Price
1.102 – Milner
1.227 – Hader
1.263 – Hill
1.269 – Rodriguez
1.326 – Cabrera
1.463 – Hand
1.588 – Alvarado
1.889 – Matzek

He ranks 12th here. Walks are definitely a problem, as Rodriguez has issued 11 BB in 71 PA to LHB, a 15.5 BB%. But he also has a 35.2 K% versus lefties. My Baseball-Reference Stathead search has K/9, rather than K% in the query for lefties that I’ve used earlier. Here is our group ranked by K/9 versus LHB:

17.18 – Hader
12.98 – Rodriguez
12.89 – Minter
12.56 – Vesia
11.48 – Rogers
10.67 – Lee
10.66 – Naughton
9.53 – Alvarado
9.37 – Milner
9.00 – Morejon
8.56 – Hand
8.56 – Price
6.91 – Cabrera
5.68 – Hill
5.52 – Suter
5.00 – Matzek

Who among you thought that Rodriguez would rank this high? So, he’s a top-half lefty reliever in our group in K/9 and OPS allowed. That seems like someone worth rostering for the playoffs.

Rodriguez has an ugly ERA thanks to his baserunners allowed and how a higher-than-normal percentage of men he left on base for other relievers came around to score. With that one-two combo, it’s not a huge surprise he has a 5.03 ERA.

But if he makes it onto the playoff roster, Rodriguez will be used differently than he’s been in the regular season. Twice this year he’s been used for eight batters in an appearance and 24 times he’s been used for at least four batters. On the flip side, he’s been used for one batter just three times.

In the playoffs, he shouldn’t be used for more than three batters. And if he’s brought on to get a LHB out with two outs and succeeds – you won’t see him in the following frame. Buck Showalter used him just 7.7% of the time in one-out fashion. That percentage should increase dramatically in the postseason.

Rodriguez has done a good job versus LHB this year and in the playoffs, his usage should allow him to face an even higher percentage of lefties. Overall this season, he’s faced LHB 47.3% of the time. It should be 70% or higher in the playoffs. Recently, he’s been outstanding with the platoon advantage. It’s my opinion that Rodriguez should be on the playoff roster, regardless of how many pitchers the team chooses to carry. Unlike in the regular season, we don’t have to worry how the pen will cover the innings. There will be enough bodies in the pen, plus days off – even with the announcement recently that there will be fewer off days than normal in the playoffs – to make carrying a LOOGY not a problem.