If the New York Mets have seen anything this past week, it is the embarrassment of riches when it comes to young talent in the NL East. Whether it be the Philadelphia Phillies with Bryson Stott at short, or the Braves with just about everyone on their roster. All jokes aside the Braves have incredible youth talent at the MLB level in Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II, who are the top two candidates for NL Rookie of the Year. They also have Vaughn Grissom, who could conceivably etch his name into third for NL Rookie of the Year if he upholds his torrid start to his young career. The Mets have held up their end of the flashing youth talent bargain, calling up Brett Baty. Baty promptly announced his entrance to the MLB with a home run on the first swing that he took in the MLB.
Baty is the first of the Mets top prospects to arrive on the scene, and he might be joined by Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos before the end of the regular season. Now, handing all of those players extensions is clearly not the top priority when it comes to spending money this offseason. The top priority for general manager Billy Eppler is more likely than not keeping Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, and Brandon Nimmo on the Mets, which will not be an easy task given their performance. Once those situations are resolved though, what if the Mets wanted to take the approach of gambling early on prospects by extending them when they are young, making it more affordable to do so? Well, Eppler wouldn’t have to look very far to find a roster that’s taking that exact approach.
Yes the Atlanta Braves are good now, and they’re betting on their young core to help them stay good for the foreseeable future. When you look at some of the stars on the roster, you notice that a good majority of them are 25 years old or younger. That includes Strider and Harris II, plus Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley. Not too far away is Matt Olson, at the age of 28.
Let’s focus in on Acuna Jr., Albies, and Harris II. If you look closer at those three players, you’ll notice that they all received lengthy contract extensions at very young ages. Acuna Jr. signed an 8-year, $100 million contract with club options to potentially make it a 10-year pact at the age of 21. Albies signed a 7-year, $35 million contract with club options to potentially make it a 9-year deal at 22 years old. This past Wednesday, Harris II signed an 8-year, $72 million contract that could turn into 10 years with a club contract at age 21. Combined over the next three seasons, the Braves will have an average annual value hit of $29-32 million to two bonafide All-Stars and a rising centerfielder. Not too shabby of a job from Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos.
Is there a potential for the Mets to pursue a similar strategy? First, the talent has to arrive. Baty recently just reached the majors, and Alvarez and Vientos still have to crack the MLB lineup before it is determined whether or not you’d want to extend them long term. Once they are up and contributing however, when exactly is it that you determine when to lock a young player down for a long time? Another factor to consider is the agents that represent the players in these situations. It is unique that agents of the aforementioned Braves players did not push the players to wait until they could reach the open market, but instead take money long-term that will more likely than not end up being below the value of the player. The Mets could run into an agent that simply turns the young player towards the open market over the long-term security.
Another thing to consider is the volatility of some of the younger players. While the Braves have been successful with these young players, the contracts haven’t been without their bumps and bruises. Whether it was Acuna Jr.’s ACL tear last season or Albies’s broken foot, potential for major injuries are enough to scare an organization from committing to a young player long-term. There’s also the Fernando Tatis Jr. situation, where the Padres signed their to a 14-year, $340 million contract. All he’s done is miss the 2022 season due to an offseason motorcycle accident and testing positive for PEDs.
Yet despite the concern for injury and volatility from some of the younger players, the bigger picture remains the shiniest object in the room. The prospect of building a dynasty with young, affordable talent is one that makes general managers and baseball fans drool in unison. Will Eppler take a page out of Anthopoulos’s book? It’s possible, given the payroll for 2025 currently has an outlook of only $54.85 million. Whether or not he’s willing to take the gamble on the young talent is an entirely different question that will be interesting to keep an eye on over the coming years.
Alonso is the obvious guy to lock up this summer.
Just show him the Reilly contract and put $50 million on top of it. If he doesn’t want to sign, oh well.
Given our financial resources, not sure Mets have to take on quite as much risk as the Braves have (though, generally, I’m very impressed). A good strategy with the right everyday players.
Sandy never believed in these contracts. He did it once with Lagares. I recall that with the A’s, Sandy let his best pitchers go to free agency.
The Braves do a great job with internal scouting, knowing their own players. Flipping Pache, for example; holding on Harris.
Dalton, good thought, but why do the Braves promote players from AA to the big leagues and the Mets trade three young pitchers and a third baseman (hitting .324 and slugging .676 for the Giants) for Darin Ruf rather promote Vientos? Vientos has been scorching for a while now, so the message is that they don’t trust their kids. And now that they’ve switched Davis for Ruf, and lost three pitchers for that privilege, have they seen a difference?
So, it’s not to be expected that the Mets would lock up six young players in long term contracts. Heck, I can’t even see the Mets having six young players on the roster at the same time! Remember, Dansby Swanson from 2017-2021 wasn’t all that great. Only, a shortened 2020 did he produce an OPS+ of over 100. If he was a Met, he would be gone via trade or free agency, and this walk year breakout would be missed or been for another roster – see Amed Rosario, whom the Mets didn’t have the conscience to put in the outfield and are repeating their stupidity with Ronny Mauricio. Rosario may not be a big name, but at 3.5 bWAR he has been a solid contributor.
I think the organization got gun shy on this approach after getting burnt on Juan Lagares. Time to get over it. This recent approach of letting homegrown stars hit free agency is bad business. Time for a new direction