In November of 2020, when people were losing their minds about having Michael Conforto under control for only one more season, there was an article here comparing the team’s top hitters, which concluded that the Mets’ offensive core was Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo, with Conforto being a cut below that trio. Conforto wasn’t very good in 2021 and has been out the entire 2022 season. But let’s check in on the other three hitters.
Alonso leads the National League with 102 RBIs and has an excellent shot of breaking the franchise’s all-time record in the category, which currently sits at 124. He also has 30 HR, good for fourth in the NL and four behind the league leader. Additionally, he leads the league in intentional walks, the ultimate sign that other teams prefer to have someone else beat them.
His triple slash lines are nearly identical to a season ago but with this year’s offensive levels, it translates to an OPS+ 10 points higher, with a 143. That’s just four points behind his rookie year total of 147. Alonso is doing exactly what we hoped he would do this year. Yet, it’s important to remember that there’s more to the game than just hitting. Alonso has a 2.8 fWAR and a 3.0 bWAR. Here recently, he’s been scuffling. In his last 14 games, Alonso has a .173/.259/.269 line in 58 PA
McNeil started off great and then for an extended period of time he was nothing special. But he’s been a monster here recently, helping pick up the slack for Alonso. Perhaps it’s simply a coincidence but McNeil’s hot streak started a couple of days before the trade deadline and matches up nicely with the period when he stopped bouncing back-and-forth between 2B and LF.
In his last 23 games, McNeil is slashing .438/.463/.697 in 95 PA. Sure, the .474 BABIP is unsustainable but this hot streak also contains 17 XBH, so it’s not all singles finding holes. For the year, McNeil has a 138 OPS+, which fits in perfectly with the 139 mark he posted from 2018-2020. His down year in 2021 looks like an outlier. McNeil has a 4.5 fWAR and a 3.9 bWAR so far in 2022.
Nimmo has stayed healthy but his numbers have taken a tumble from the previous seasons. His calling card has always been the ability to get on base at a great clip. And he buttressed that skill with unexpected pop, putting up ISOs in the 200s in his healthy seasons of 2018 and 2020. This year, both his OBP and SLG are down.
It seems pitchers were attacking the strike zone more this year with Nimmo, resulting in more swings early in the count. Much like with McNeil, that resulted in an extended stretch where Nimmo was nothing special. In 298 PA from 5/24-8/13, he had a .719 OPS, with just a .324 OBP. It’s just that Nimmo hasn’t had the hot streak that McNeil’s currently on to make up for the poor stretch.
Perhaps the worm is starting to turn. In his last nine games, Nimmo has an .831 OPS, with a .390 OBP. He has six walks and a HBP in this span. The power is still down but yesterday’s homer certainly feels encouraging. Nimmo has just a 118 OPS+ this year. But he’s adding value elsewhere, as he has a 3.5 fWAR and a 3.0 bWAR this season. One thing to keep in mind is that Nimmo has a history of strong Septembers, helped by finally being healthy at the end of the year in both 2019 and 2021. Lifetime, he has a .278/.414/.491 line in 499 PA in September/October.
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While Nimmo has failed to keep pace with Alonso and McNeil offensively, the Mets have been boosted by players new to the organization since 2020. Starling Marte sports a 130 OPS+, while Francisco Lindor adds a 127 and the scorching-hot Mark Canha is up to a 124. And Daniel Vogelbach has a 167 OPS+ in 87 PA as a Met since being acquired.
That’s seven spots in the order where the Mets have someone (most nights) with an OPS+ of at least 118. It’s why the whole team has a season-high .784 OPS in August, with an average of 5.2 runs per game, despite 16 of the 22 games so far in August coming against teams with a winning record.
If only the Mets were getting something from C and 3B, they’d really have an offensive juggernaut. For the year, the Mets have a .626 OPS from their third basemen and a .519 mark from their backstops. It’s easy to understand why Billy Eppler didn’t make moves at those two positions at the deadline, given the club’s top prospects play there. Still, impending free agent Willson Contreras and his 132 OPS+ would have been a great fit.
But, like the WAR totals mentioned above point to, there’s more to the game than just what you do in the batter’s box. And even with the two lineup sinkholes, the team’s offense was strong enough to come back three times in yesterday’s win. Offense is fun.
I’m not worried about the 8th and 9th batters. Like you said, C and 3B are covered. Nimmo has fallen out of top three offense players and replaced by Marte and Lindor. The bonus is that now 1-3 players in the batting order have speed and take the extra base on a hit. Alonso and his 102 RBIs is the beneficial recipient. It remind me of Tommy Davis of the Dodgers in the 60s and Jack Clark of the Cardinals in the 80s. The 1 -7th spots are very good but wait until the near future when the C and 3B positions develope.
P.S. the linked article and especially the comments was interesting. Thanks.
I think any team that can wake up and say 7/9 hitters are being productive doesnt need to fret about 2, especially if one is C. What i cant wrap my head around is how does a team with that much clicking go into a game against Falter and literally have everyone fall off a cliff at the same time. If a team has a just a few good hitters, then I can see it – but 7?
Also interesting to see how just changing teams can be so tough on a player. Just ask Josh bell and Joan Soto. Who knows if Contreras would have hit better, and had to do it learning tough pitchers like Bassitt and Scherzer.
While they’ve been doing better in the 2nd half than the 1st, the Mets still struggle versus LHP. Alonso scuffling, Canha with reverse platoon splits, Escobar’s bat against lefties missing and Ruf instead of Vogelbach – it’s not a huge surprise they didn’t excel against Falter.
they also did have a huge opportunity in the first inning. bases loaded, McNeil up, he hits a rope and Castellanos, not known for his glove, made a nice sliding catch. If that ball bounces, it’s likely an inside the park grand slam and we’re talking about sweeping 4 games. after the first inning, the team just couldn’t string anything together. it happens. this is a team in need of a day off which they’ll get either today or Wednesday.
The interesting aspect of this year is with our pitching staff we really can beat almost any team in a short series. I believe we all feel they are capable of winning it all this year even though clearly that was not the expectation in spring training. We were very happy in year two of the 3 to 5 year rebuild by owner Steve Cohen. Next year it is reasonable that Baty will stick, and that Vientos might just platoon in LF. Can’t understand how poorly McCann has hit. Hitting .175 when you are a lifetime .243 hitter would normally relegate someone to the bench or AAA. Escobar has also hit well below his average but at least he has hit a dozen HRs. Both are under very team friendly contracts and both might be gone in the off-season. In the meantime, the bats are quiet in the Bronx thus far.