Expectations for Brett Baty and August top 20 prospects

On 8/15 Buck Showalter was on the record as saying the time was not right to promote either Brett Baty or Francisco Alvarez. By 8/16 the writing was on the wall and the Mets had announced Baty would be promoted for the game on 8/17. Showalter isn’t a hypocrite, if Luis Guillorme was the only injury to the Met infield the Mets would have held out with Devon Marrero and Eduardo Escobar but when Escobar complained of pain the Mets’ hands were forced.

The immediate dividends on Baty were pretty spectacular with Baty hitting a home run on his first big league swing and seeming to contribute in his first few games. The reality is that Baty is young, inexperienced and exposed. The Mets are batting their #2 prospect 8th in the order with one of a motley assortment of poor hitting catchers behind him. Opposing pitchers will have little reason to give Baty anything too juicy to hit with the complete lack of lineup protection behind him.

Even so, you can expect Baty to become a solid major league hitter if he is given the time to blossom. The question will be, how much time will he be given.  Escobar will be eligible to come off the IL by the end of the week and Baty would need to put on a spectacular show at the plate to avoid being sent back down once that happens. In general, teams don’t like to send their top prospects back and forth from the minors to the majors but the writing for 2022 is pretty boldly on the wall.

Seeing Baty struggle might put fans in a more sensible mindset when it comes to Alvarez’s potential for promotion. Alvarez has shown some struggles since getting the call to AAA and could well struggle in the majors to close out this vital Mets season. The only difference is that Escobar has shown some ability to hit and the other Met catchers have really not.

Top 20 Prospects:

1. Francisco Alvarez, C (AAA) – No Change: Has Alvarez been a phenom since his promotion to AAA? No, he continues to hit for power but is struggling to get his batting average to rise. Since promotion his strikeouts are up and his walks are down but if anyone thinks this diminishes the value of a catcher only 20 years of age, they are wrong.
2. Brett Baty, 3B (MLB) – No Change: He’s played well enough to be a Top 10 overall prospect in all of the majors and well enough to be the #1 prospect on the Mets on any year where the Mets don’t also have Francisco Alvarez.
3. Kevin Parada, C (R) – Draftee: The Mets drafted Parada because he was the best player available and he belongs as the #3 prospect without him having minor league stats to judge. Fans will get to see a few games from their newest Top Prospect this season as the FCL Mets close out their season.
4. Mark Vientos, 3B (AAA) – Up 1: Some people might be surprised to see Baty promoted instead of Vientos but the truth is that Vientos is now profiling as a future Darin Ruf. He has a major league future but with shabby defense and no present home on the squad for a lefty mashing DH, Vientos gets to chill in AAA.
5. Alex Ramirez, CF (A+) – Down 1: How does Alex Ramirez play well and still go down in the rankings? The answer has more to do with Baty, Vientos and Alvarez still being on this list and the fact that Kevin Parada demands to be ranked at #3.
6. Ronny Mauricio, SS (AA) – Down 3: Please don’t imagine that Mauricio’s season has been bad. Scouts predictions for Mauricio may not have been realistic and his value simply took a hit. The comparisons to Alfonso Soriano remain, he’s a big and physically gifted player with power and speed who also strikes out a lot. The scouts hoped he’d cut the strikeouts and raise his walk rate but that hasn’t happened and likely won’t to any great degree.
7. Jett Williams, SS (R) – Draftee: A lot of draftees get listed and have their rankings largely tied to the draft position. Williams is ranked where he would be based upon his draft but is also getting to play out the remaining games with the FCL squad.
8. Matt Allan, RHP (A+) – No Change: Looks like Met fans don’t get to see their top pitching prospect for all of 2023 either. This makes 2024 a huge year for Allan who has to make up for a lot of lost time.
9. Blade Tidwell, RHP (A) – Draftee: The Mets are greatly limiting the innings they’ll use Tidwell in 2022 but he was the #2 pitching prospect on the team the moment he was drafted. The Mets will hope to see big things from him next year.
10. Calvin Ziegler, RHP (A) – Down 4: With an innings cap now in place the Mets have seen what they needed to from Ziegler in 2022. Expect him as a headline starter for the Brooklyn Cyclones in 2023.
11. Dominic Hamel, RHP (A+) – Up 4: Hamel has pitched into a promotion and performed solidly. All season he’s kept the two key pitching stats of K/9 and Whip right on target for his ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.
12. Jose Butto, RHP (MLB) – Down 3: Promoted to the majors for the Sunday afternoon start Butto did not get off to a great start. That being said, the Phillies have a robust offense and Butto only profiles as a back end starter for a good team.
13. Nick Plummer, OF (AAA) – Down 6: Plummer is in prospect free fall and ending the year with an OPS below .700 will all but assure him of not appearing on another Top 20 prospect list for a while.
14. Hayden Senger, C (AA) – No Change: A future backup catcher isn’t an exciting piece to feature in a Top 20 but he belongs there. Senger has better offensive chops than other defensive backups the Mets have promoted over the last few years as his overall numbers look healthier than both Tomas Nido and Ali Sanchez.
15. Nick Morabito, OF (R) – Draftee: His early at bats in the FCL haven’t given the Mets fans much to sink their teeth into. The sample size is too small to get hopes up anyway but this writer wasn’t happy when Morabito was drafted and doesn’t yet see an MLB future.
16. Khalil Lee, OF (AAA) – Down 6: With a ceiling as a 4th outfielder the only thing one can say for Lee’s 2022 season is that it wasn’t “disastrous”.  He still doesn’t look like a major league player with only a .708 OPS in the minors.
17. Juan Simon, RHP (DSL) – Down 6: You want more out of an international signee with Simon’s pedigree than the Mets have gotten. Good or bad, don’t put stock into the stats from the DSL.  Simon could easily break out in 2023 when he comes stateside.
18. Robert Dominguez, RHP (A) – Down 6: A severe drop in the rankings caused by an unexplained absence from the minor leagues. When Dominguez starts pitching again he could rocket back up towards the Top 10 but with the new prospects he was just ranked too high.
19. Willy Fanas, OF (DSL) – Down 3: Better, still meaningless, stats in the DSL than Simon but a player with less scouting buzz. A guy to keep your eye on next season.
20. Keyshawn Askew, LHP (A+) – Up 18: This looks more jarring because the last time these rankings were posted were June. Even so, you’d see his rankings coming up by roughly 10 spots from July to August regardless.  Askew has been good all season, in relief. He has continued to thrive through promotion and a shift into starting.