The Dodgers’ recent dominance of the Mets can be traced to HR

Since beating the Dodgers in the NLDS in 2015, the Mets have had virtually no success at all against the club that Steve Cohen said he wanted to emulate. From 2016-2021, the Mets were 8-26 against the Dodgers and they did not win the season series once. The two teams split the four-game series in Los Angeles earlier this season and they have a shot to win the season series for the first time since 2015.

And it’s not just that the Dodgers have beaten the Mets here recently – they’ve manhandled them. From 2016-2021, the Dodgers outscored the Mets, 195-111. Four times, the Dodgers scored in double digits, with the Mets failing to reach that level once. On the flip side, the Mets were shut out five times while the Dodgers were blanked just once.

They’ve put up these gaudy numbers thanks to their ability to deliver the long ball. Here’s how many homers they’ve hit each year against the Mets:

2021 – 10
2019 – 9
2018 – 16
2017 – 25
2016 – 11

That’s 71 HR in 34 games. So far this year, the Mets have 129 HR in 129 games, so the recent Dodgers have more than doubled that output in their contests against the Mets. The best HR-hitting team in the majors this year is the Yankees, with 202 HR in 129 games. That’s an average of 1.57 HR per game. The Dodgers’ HR/G is 2.09, which dwarfs what the Yankees have done this season.

An optimist can say that most of the damage was done in 2017-18. But even if we just look at the past two years, that’s 19 HR in 14 games or a 1.36 per game mark. To put that into perspective, Tylor Megill has a 5.01 ERA this year and has surrendered 6 HR in 41.1 IP. That’s a 1.31 HR/9 rate.

This year the Dodgers have hit 5 HR in 4 G against the Mets. But three of those were hit in one game, a 6-1 Dodgers win. In the other three games, they hit just two and went 1-2.

For the season, Mets pitchers have given up 133 HR in 129 games, with 39 of those coming by pitchers either no longer on the team or on the IL. Of the pitchers that will be potentially facing the Dodgers in this series, a trio of relievers – Mychal Givens, Tommy Hunter and Trevor May – all have elevated HR/9 in limited innings with the Mets. Of those who’ve pitched more than 17 innings, Trevor Williams has the worst HR/9 rate at 1.2 but most of that damage happened earlier in the season. Williams currently has a streak of 24 innings without allowing a home run.

However, when Williams does give up a homer, it’s not uncommon for him to give up multiple blasts. He allowed two home runs to the Rockies on 5/21 and two to the Astros on 6/21 and three to the Rangers on 7/2. Seven of the nine HR he’s allowed this year came in those three games. It’s not hard to imagine the Dodgers treating him similarly, despite how well he’s been pitching lately.

Ideally, the starters go deep in the game and the Mets can have the majority of their relief innings covered by their top three relievers. But it won’t make much difference if the Mets don’t break out of their hitting woes. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. Thanks to one game with 10 runs, the Mets have scored 28 runs in those eight games. Still, that’s an average of just 3.5 runs per game.