Let’s get this out there, right now: this is not last year. The Mets will not finish under .500. That is a mathematical impossibility, as they already have 87 wins on their tally. This is also not 2007, as they are all but guaranteed a playoff spot, even in the absence of a division title. As of this writing, their “magic number” – the combination of the number of wins by the Mets and losses by the team with the best record not in the playoff chase, in this case, the Milwaukee Brewers – is down to 10. So, as Kevin Bacon told us so eloquently in his small but crucial role in the film “National Lampoon’s Animal House,” all is well! It sure doesn’t feel like it right now, though.
It’s an old saw, a truism in baseball, really, that goes “Sometimes, it’s not how many, but when.” This was supposed to be the “easy” part of the schedule, the final September push against a group of teams whose record is currently a combined 160 games under .500. 24 of their final 30 games of the season would come against those five teams. With a three-game lead in the division, the Mets looked like they would take a nice stroll to the crown. After all, they had just finished their stretch of all-contenders-all-the-time after the All-Star break, going 15-11 against the likes of the San Diego Padres, the Yankees, the Atlanta Braves, the Philadelphia Phillies, and the almighty Los Angeles Dodgers. Sprinkled in there were series wins against some also-rans: the Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, and Colorado Rockies. Now, it would be smooth sailing until October. Until, as an Atlanta Braves fan-friend of mine had been warning since June, “Mets gonna Met.”
The Mets have started their cushy stretch unable to even reach the couch. In the first seven games against the Nationals, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Marlins, they’ve gone 3-4. They look like a team that is trying to catch its breath after the rigors of scaling Mount NL. Their hitting seems to have reverted from their patient, grinding approach which has worked for them all year to the swing-for-the-moon sabermetric ideal that’s doomed them since 2018. It also seems like any of their starters not named Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt or Max Scherzer can remember how to get anybody out. Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, and David Peterson – so stout all year when deGrom and Scherzer were absent – have found themselves serving up clumps of runs to immortals like Luis Garcia, Rodolfo Castro, and Garrett Cooper. For their part, the Braves – who’ve played out-of-their-minds baseball since June 1 – have gone 7-0 in the same stretch. Yes, the Mets have beat up on the bottom half of the League all year, but the Braves have beat them up more, to the point where, for the first time since April 11 – when Joely Rodriguez and Seth Lugo coughed up a 4-0, eighth inning lead to the Phillies – the Mets are not in first place.
For us fans, it’s maddening, of course. Looking at the numbers, you cannot deny that the Mets have been consistent all season: a .624 winning percentage in the first half, .630 in the second. A five-game difference in their record at home vs. on the road. April through August, the winning percentage swung between .682 and .633. They are .559 in one-run games, .575 in blowouts. The outliers have been extra-inning games, where they’ve excelled and inter-league games where they’ve struggled. For them to now look so lost against such feeble competition flies in the face of all that. For the Mets to hit their first real rough patch of the year…now? It’s tough to take. You start to secretly harbor that self-doubt, that gnawing notion that that Braves fan is right: no matter who the owner is, no matter how much money gets spent or wins get racked up, Mets gonna Met.
Of course, this can all be washed away by a good weekend, leading to a hot week and we could be dancing in the aisles again soon. It didn’t start out that way, but the competition still is what it is, and they’re coming back to their welcoming home. A possible key down the stretch: the Mets have a 39-30 record against teams over .500, while the Braves are 28-30. The Mets have six more such games while the Braves have 12. If the season-long winning percentage in those games hold, the Mets should go 4-2 while the Braves should go 5-7. That could — it’s a very steep “could, ” mind you — be the difference between a Division win and a Wild Card berth.
Right now, though, it just seems like we fans the victims of bad timing.
It is what it is,and you know what,100 wins and the Playoffs isn’t too bad. Lets hope Sherzer,DeGrom, Diaz and Bassit are at their best.
Where’s Tex? Haven’t seen him here or on any other sites. He’s a diehard.
This season has been terrific compared to years past, but let’s look at some realities. The Braves are the defending World Champions. The Braves got Acuna back. The Braves bring up rookies Spencer Strider, Michael Harris and Vaughn Grissom. To be honest, I expected them to catch the Mets.
The Mets need another power hitter to complement Alonso. It is also hard to win when you are throwing out Rodriguez, de Oca and Tommy Hunter from your bullpen.
It’s great to have Alvarez, Baty and Vientos on the horizon. But where are the great young arms?
I would love to see the Mets win the division, but I will be happy if they make the playoffs. Would like to see them warm up over the last two weeks of the season and see Scherzer and deGrom in the rotation. Besides the pitching, let’s hope Pete will break out, starting with his missile from last night.
We have to enjoy it while we can because we could lose alot of players this offseason and see a much different roster next year.
In the last ten games the Mets 5-5. Sure they were expected to be 7-3 based on the competition. Two games is not a collapse. Right now the Braves are playing elite baseball currently with a 8 game winning streak. Nobody expected them to be this good at the end of May. The difference was their trio of rookies that immediately contributed. Give the Braves credit where it’s due. Meanwhile the Mets were overly cautious with their trio of Vientos, Alvarez and Baty. There were opportunities in the course of the season to temperately promote them to see what they could do. Now they have Marrero, Gore and had Perez instead. I’m still confident that they will win the Division though.
The last 10 games includes two wins against the Dodgers and I’m not sure that should have been expected.
The way I look at it is that they should win 2/3 against teams. We did what was expected against the Pirates and a win today gives us that against the Marlins. So, we’re down one game due to the Nationals series. Hopefully we sweep a series and get that game back.