Bottom of the Mets’ lineup endangers postseason success

We can’t have nice things.

After dropping the first two games of an incredibly important series with the Braves this weekend, the mood is more somber than perhaps it should be for a team that still has a chance to win 100 games. The Mets are bound for the postseason for the first time since 2016, yet the seed of doubt about the team’s chances (beyond the thought of having to play in the wildcard round) will always be there for Mets fans. It’s not without merit when considering that this team, for all of its wins, is fairly flawed in more ways than one. We’ll avoid the twin disappointments that were the performances of their two aces in a playoff atmosphere in this one.

One of those flaws is a bottom of the lineup that continues to look more and more like it’ll be their Achilles heel against the best teams in the playoffs. Those teams, like the Dodgers and Braves, are generally dangerous up and down their lineups with little respite for opposing pitching staffs. The Mets, on the other hand, have been struggling to solidify the bottom of their lineup all season even when Starling Marte wasn’t on the shelf. The injury to Marte has clearly exacerbated the situation without a doubt, and do we really believe that one hot month of Eduardo Escobar will carry into October and (possibly) beyond?

To be clear, the Mets’ offense over the course of the season has generally been very good. As of this writing, the team is 8th in OPS (.739), 6th in wOBA (.324), 6th in runs (748), and 4th in wRC+ (115). The bottom of their order (7-9) is actually in the top 15 in categories like OPS, hits, runs, and RBI. The problem is that many of the teams the Mets would theoretically face in the playoffs are well above them in terms of performance from the 7-9 slots, particularly those Braves and Dodgers. When we start looking at postseason baseball, teams are going to need every edge they can get to reach the mountaintop. The lack of length in the lineup is a clear area where the Mets fall short, with a particular focus on their inability to shore up the DH spot.

Don’t think it’s that much of an issue? Consider that the team has promoted not one, but two of their top prospects in an attempt to get something out of the DH slot to help provide a bit of that needed length. Mark Vientos wasn’t up to the task, understandably, and poor Francisco Alvarez was thrust into some of the biggest at bats of the Mets’ season and his baseball career in literally his first handful of big league plate appearances. That’s the sign of a team at the end of their rope on this particular matter.

Everyone but the Mets knew that they didn’t do enough at the trade deadline to bolster their offense, instead adding multiple useful but very flawed players to their roster. Granted, prices appeared inflated and many of the players expected to move did not. In the long run the Mets will almost certainly not regret choosing to avoid trading any of their best prospects for rentals, but that’ll be little solace should they make an early exit during the playoffs.

The Daniel Vogelbach/Tomas Nido/Darin Ruf/James McCann/not-Marte combination at the bottom of the order has been a thorn all season, and it could very well be what thwarts the Mets’ chances at a championship. Expecting Escobar to not turn back into a pumpkin seems naively optimistic as well.

Am I more gloom and doom than I should be as the team preps for playoff baseball for the first time in five seasons? Maybe, but the sting of this weekend’s pivotal series in which so many potentially game-changing at bats were taken by the bottom of the order has so far highlighted just how important a complete team truly is in this environment. The issues with the bullpen can theoretically be addressed by shuffling and tightening up the rotation for the postseason. It could be that Marte makes a return to bolster the offense, and perhaps one of the aforementioned underwhelming hitters gets hot like so many unheralded players do in October, but for the most part the offense is what it is at this point in the season.

While the Mets have no choice but to go to battle with what they currently have on the roster, there’s a clear roadmap for improvements this offseason to ensure the team is a perennial contender rather than a one-and-done team they’ve been historically.