In an elimination game, the Mets were one-hit by Joe Musgrove (and two relievers) and they fell to the Padres, 6-0. Yes, the same Musgrove they knocked out in the sixth inning back in the regular season. The Mets were so incredulous that this pitcher was dominating them that Buck Showalter had the umpires conduct an extensive pat down, looking for foreign substances that he must have been applying to the ball. The umps did not find anything.
In the Sunday morning we post, we talked about the Mets’ offense succeeding by grinding out at-bats, forcing a high number of pitches and getting enough chances with runners in scoring position to allow them to ultimately cash in. Padres pitchers needed just 114 pitches and they allowed the Mets just two chances with a runner at second base.
Chris Bassitt had a great first inning but he probably wouldn’t want us to discuss much more about his outing. He was pulled after four innings and three runs and took the loss. The bullpen wasn’t as good as it was in Game 2 but it was a solid 5 IP, 2 ER performance for the pen. But when the offense was mired in quicksand, it didn’t make much difference.
For the most part, it was the bottom of the order for the Padres that did the most damage in this series. Sunday night, it was the seventh-place hitter drawing three walks and scoring all three times, the eighth-place hitter reaching base all three times, with a run and an RBI and the ninth batter getting two hits and two RBIs. It would be one thing if the Padres had a stacked lineup like the Dodgers. But these guys were lousy or forgettable during the regular season and all-world performers in this series.
It’s always tough when the season ends. It’s even tougher in the playoffs, especially when you feel like you lost to an inferior team. Make no mistake about it – the Padres played better and deserved to win this series. Losing in the Wild Card round was something that seemed unfathomable for the vast majority of the year. But the starting pitching and the offense just weren’t productive.
If told that the Mets were going to have their three best starters go in a series and they would combine for 14.2 IP and 12 ER, few – if any – would have believed it. And combined with the offense putting up a .185/.283/.326 line and a combined eight runs in three games, it was a recipe for a loss. It was like the 2015 World Series offense all over again.
Clearly, the team wasn’t good enough to win the World Series. But they were better than losing at home in the Wild Card round. That’s something this team will need to live with for the next five-plus months until Spring Training starts in 2023. But it will be a much-different team than we saw this season. Typically, that’s how baseball is for most teams in the 21st Century. But not quite as much for squads that win 101 games during the regular season.
Of the 21 players who appeared on the field in the 1969 World Series, 19 of them wore the Mets uniform in 1970. It’s anybody’s guess how many of the 24 players who appeared in the Wild Card round this year will be on the team in 2023. The over/under is 18.
As the sudden feel of winter’s chill hits me, I cannot believe there won’t be any more Mets games. As Buck Showalter said in the postgame, it’s not always fair and someone will lose. I believe the Padres are a better team. They have more stars, younger overall pitching and a stronger bullpen. What the Mets had was a better one-two starting pitching punch; except, they didn’t. The Mets also had the home crowd and I felt it would be enough to push them across the finish line. The Braves series last week gave us all a bad feeling that something was falling apart, but we kept the hope.
Bassitt induced alot of weak contact but the problem with having fifteen different pitches is that you want to throw them all even if you cannot control them all. With two outs and a man on second, he walked two guys and gave up a worm burning single that plated two. Tough luck, but he did it to himself. Just like Scherzer did it to himself Friday night.
I’m grateful for the summer the Mets gave us. I feel certain the Front Office did their best and with Cohen’s blessing went after it without throwing away a talented young player for a rental. I wanted Soto badly because this type of player doesn’t come around often, but the Mets lacked the depth in the prospect currency. deGrom will want 5/$225; is he worth it? Nimmo hired Scott Boras so expect 5/$100+; is he worth it? Corrasco is a $14MM option for the Mets…. Many difficult questions, and that’s before we get to the best closer in baseball who the fans will be heartbroken if he leaves as he won us over and then some. How high do you go for Diaz? You will hurt your draft, but let’s punt it for one year. I think it’s time to start moving on from role players and start looking for annual difference makers. Keep Diaz, keep deGrom, keep Taijuan Walker, let the rest go.
Well said on the last few series, Gus!
As for the off season, I can see deGrom getting 4/$180, Nimmo and Diaz each for 5/$100, with Judge going for 8/$330.
Brian, thank you for everything you’ve done to help us understand and enjoy our Mets this year. It was a season full of exciting wins, even if it ended disappointingly. Now we have the offseason to follow, which, for me, is just as interesting as the season itself. I look forward to your analysis of the season and the moves the team makes for next year along with Dave Groveman’s excellent insights into our minor league system. Let’s go Mets!
Gut Reaction: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching. Musgrove was unhittable and Bassitt didn’t have command. Give credit where credit is due The Mets pitching failed in Game 1 & 3. If the other team’s pitcher was throwing his “A” game then your pitcher has to throw his “A” game. Bassitt and Scherzer pitched their “D” games. They weren’t competitive starts.
Then the offense has to grind out a win. They have to hit when men are the scoring position. In Game 1 they failed. Game 3 they had only two opportunities because of Musgrove. He pitched an epic game.
This series and the Atlanta series was a complete break down after a very good season. Disappointing.
I”ll take Under 18.5 (so there won’t be a push) but that is just as my Gut Reaction. The question should be poll for the site with comments and insights.
In many respects this was the game that Cohen needed to see as a cold splash of water as to where the team really is.
I take the under on 18.5 returning from this WC series.
When we had the chance to get Luis Castillo we got Naquin, Ruf, and Vogleback, none of whom seriously distinguished themselves when the team needed it.
While there is a lot of excitement for the new kids on the block, lets be honest that making Alvarez, Vientos, Baty, Mauricio as starters = rebuild.
We went to the post season with zero production at C and DH, not enough OF depth, and clearly a major hole in the rotation. Thats a lot to hope for to make happen at the same time.
The Mets Jeckyll and Hyde hitting was on perfect display this past month of disappointment. When we get an early lead, everyone hits. We get behind and no one hits.
Anyway, Cohen needs to look carefully at how hes gonna dump his vast fortune. The fact is 43M$ on a pitcher at 38 is insane. deGrom should not get that equivalent.
Would you offer DeGrom a three year deal like Scherzer’s since you are upside down for two more years anyway? That would be ok with me in the team building area, not that it is my money…
Money means less to me to the extent that Cohen puts a hard stop on things at say 300M$.
Im a big believer in balance for a baseball team. Not too old not too young. Not reliant on only 1 means to score. Being able to Bunt and hint-run as well as leave the park.
The fact is this team is unbalanced. The aces are aces from another time. Sure we loved seeing Willie Mays in 73, but everyone knew is wasnt 1965. The same is true for Scherzer and deGrom who will play much of next year at age 35 after and spent more than half the season on the DL and wetting the bed when the season was on the line this year. Isnt one 43M$ over the hill pitcher enough? Maybe the Nats would part with Strasburg????? I think we need to accept brutal reality that both deGrom and Scherzer are mid rotation pieces, say a 3-4 in the rotation. If pouring 45 mill on deGrom and 43.3 on Scherzer occurs, thats about 30% of a 300M$ roster for two pitchers that are no longer 1s. Lets be clear: SD was not the least intimidated by either and treated Bassitt like a rag doll. Would you dump nearly a third of the whole team on them?
Then you move to the reality of baseball and expenses. Cohen is absolutely cracked if he thinks FA salaries arent gonna keep driving up the cost of the game. Sure 300M is a lot, but if you want difference makers? then the cost is gonna go up. The FO absolutely trashed the trade deadline with the mistakes made by Eppler. Like the old days, heres the Mets with command and a chance to really compete hard and instead of getting Soto and Castillo, they got the worst trio of DHs and lousy relief help. You hang a 5-yr window to won a WS on the team and do that? When youre the Dodgers, the team you want to emulate, you trade for generational talent Betts even though it hurts. Meanwhile, when the team could have been emulating the Braves by locking up Alonso, Nimmo, Gimenez, deGrom, etc it lost that too.
In the end you have an unbalanced team approach and an unbalanced farm system, extremely top heavy. Instead of a mix of players it always seems the team is too this or that – this year too old. If you just throw in Baty, Alvarez, Vientos, and Mauricio, assuming you can find spots for them all, there is absolutely no reason to expect this will be a team of big winners. Baty looks ok. Vientos so so. Alvarez who knows and Mauricio who knows.
It takes time to be the Dodgers and to do this under a window of 5 years to win a WS somethings gotta give.
Maybe you keep 1 or 2 blue chippers and deal others for key trades. But if you dont want to touch the farm then when talents like Soto and Judge come available you do them. Imagine a line up of Nimmo, Lindor, Marte, Judge, Alonso, McNeil, Escobar….
Baty got a slightly longer intro and I think will succeed.
Vientos needs to get an actual opportunity and being a secondary DH for a few weeks is not that.
Alvarez is a star in the making
Mauricio probably gets traded for far too little
I am instantly ignoring anyone who suggests signing Judge is a solution.
We shouldn’t let the bitterness of how the season ended color our judgments. Scherzer and deGrom no better than mid-rotation pieces??!!! Scherzer was still dealing with a balky oblique and will be dominating once it’s fully healed. deGrom simply ran out of gas, which should have been expected given a year lay off. He’s still a dominating pitcher and will be again. We do need another above average pitcher to strengthen the rotation. Perhaps Rodon?
Wow Brian, the masthead changed fast! and changed back fast!
Depressed is my only gut reaction tonight. Knew it was over as soon as the padres scored 2.
Thankful for this site all season long.
I was there. I watched the Met bats look absolutely meagre. I gotta say I did not enjoy the crowd in my section as I was dealing with very loud, obnoxious and ill-informed people shouting inane nonsense all game.
Over Under: Over
I project 15 Met slots on the starting squad as locks meaning only 3 of the vacancies being taken by possibly returning players to reach 18 and 4 to reach the over. Add to this the issue of position scarcity with regard to quality. If the Mets don’t sign Diaz, who do they sign in his place? If the Mets don’t sign deGrom, who do they sign in his place? While the relief core is gutted, there is a strong chance the Mets bring back multiple pitchers from the squad and while they could rebuild the bench with external options, money needs to spent elsewhere. I could see 23 Mets organizational players from 2022 returning for 2023
C1 – Met
C2 – Met
1B – Met
2B – Met
3B – Met
SS – Met
LF – Met
CF – Non-Definite
RF – Met
DH – Non-Definite
Bench – Met
Bench – Met
Bench – Non-Definite
SP1 – Non-Definite
SP2 – Met
SP3 – Non-Definite
SP4 – Met
SP5 – Non-Definite
CL – Non-Definite
SU – Non-Definite
SU – Met
MR – Non-Definite
MR – Non-Definite
MR – Met
LR – Met
Jose Abreu for DH on a 3 yr deal.
If Cohen wants to protect the best of the farm *and* win a WS then the only option is to spend money. His 300M$ limit is arbitrary in the world of FA where prices are escalating. Considering all that needs to get done, he’s gonna need to spend a mountain if he wants to be competitive. Pitching and power aint cheap.
Dont understand your Judge dismissal David. Why?
This team has Canha for 1 (or 2 yrs) and is not a long term solution. Nimmo is a great question mark, and Marte, while fit as a fiddle, just turned 34 yesterday and will play out the remaining 3 years of his contract in the steeper declining years. This team has no stability at OF, and certainly little power with only 16 HR this season. A corner OF with 40+ HR in the books seems pretty smart.
If you cant have the best pitching, you better have good hitting. So I’d add Judge and Abreu for next year.
C – Nido
C – Alvarez
1B – Alonso
2B – McNeil
SS – Lindor
3B – Escobar
OF1 – Judge
OF2 – Nimmo
OF3 – Marte
DH – Abreu
B1 – Canha
B2 – Baty
B3 – Mauricio
13 position
SP 1
SP 2 – deGrom
SP 3 – Scherzer
SP 4 –
SP 5 – Walker
CL – Diaz
SU –
SU –
MR –
MR –
MR –
LR –
LR –
13 Pitch
, , , ,
Here’s your issue: $186,334,000.00
that’s the starting point for your budget losing all salary.
Let’s add deGrom… that’s roughly $40,000,000.00
Let’s add Diaz… that’s roughly $20,000,000.00
Let’s bring back Walker… That’s also at least $20,000,000.00
You’re bringing back Nimmo… That’s going to run you at least $20,000,000.00
We’re adding Judge… He asked for 10 years at $36,000,000.00
You’d like Jose Abreu… Should we be nice and estimate $20,000,000.00
This is well over $300,000,000.00 without filling out most of your pitching.
Rodon would look good in SP1. I believe Carrasco is back on an option unless I’m wrong about that – there’s your SP 5. Or Peterson. Or Megill
Yep. Thats the cost of failing to do business like locking up players when they could. I have absolutely zero sympathy for money spending for Cohen. He chose this course in life, chose to want to win, and chose to hold onto his best prospects. As a result, the only way to fix things is with the resource he has available: money.
You cant want to win and not spend capital, whatever it may be.
And of course the number is much worse. He may need to get to 375-400M$. Or roll over and be the Wilpons.
They should lock up Pete and McNeil and if you think Alvarez is a lock, then him too.
If Cohen wont do this, then the win a WS in 5 years is a joke. As they say around the saloon, be careful what you wish for. He bought this team and now his “300M should be enough to win” is already ancient headlines with little meaning.
Oh yeah. One needs to call up the Angels and pick up Ohtani over Judge and give him 400M$. Such is the way….
Ohtani won’t be a free agent until after the 2023 season.
Chris,
I see the prospects as being viable players for 2023. I see Brett Baty being the starting third baseman and Francisco Alvarez being the starting catcher. I see Jeff McNeil being moved into the outfield and the Mets not having the money or room to bring back Nimmo, let alone pay for Judge.
Cohen setting a $300 Mil limit is already pretty insane but it seems that you are a bit wrapped up in the pain of last night. I was in the stadium and saw it. It was bad. I don’t judge Scherzer by his worst outing. I don’t judge the Mets offense by one awful outing. This team put up great numbers and there is plenty to build from without spending $400 Mil a year on baseball players. Take a deep breath, there will be Mets baseball in the future and our team will win games.
I will be certainly happy to revisit this a year from now and send you a 6-pack of your favorite if I fall flat on my face with my view of the state of team affaires.
But I will make clear, this is about Cohen wanting to win a WS in 5 years.
1. Scherzer is making 43.3 M$/year. On this day, it cannot be supposed at 1 more year older he will buck his growing trend of decline. It’s not 1 start, its his last starts (plural) and a l;to of time on DL. It’s hard to see that he will be improving another year older.
2. Jake has long been on a trail of decline. This is another season in a row where we have no clue who he will be in 23 – and beyond – as the years pile on. We went into last off season not knowing, and waited more than half a season to see Jake then watched him fall off a cliff. It is way overly optimistic to believe the 30 yo Jake is coming back given the track record of decline in health and clearly a decline in “stuff”. He is not worth 40 M$, and I probably would let him go (a lot like the Braves let Freeman go).
3. moving McNeil, a second baseman, to the OF is the classic Wilpon move to pound a square peg into a round hole. This would move a declining Marte to CF and McNeil to RF? Canha, Marte, McNeil is not a successful OF and no one to fill when injuries occur.
4. I cannot envision that Baty will displace Escobar at 3B, but surely getting time at DH and filling in.
5. It is not realistic to expect Alvarez, a defensive liability, to take over an as of yet unknown staff and produce heroically on offense.
I stand entirely by my sense the team will rapidly need to approach 400M$ to be competitive against a Braves team that is better than what we saw in the 90s, the Dodgers, the Padres, and the Astros.
I’m ok with a bring up the kids, but did not believe for a second it will be more than a 80-85 win team at best given all the problems we saw. Even treading water with bringing back the exact same team and all its exposed the serious problems will not make the team better.
We’ve seen 6 weeks solid of a team that cannot consistently perform, especially when the chips were on the line. If nothing changes, nothing changes.
1. Max is making too much money but he was a Top pitcher in 2022 and I expect him to remain a Top pitcher in 2023.
2. To say deGrom is on a long trail of decline lacks a fundamental property of not having a long trail to note. 2018: Cy Young Winner, 2019: Cy Young Winner, 2020: 3rd in Cy Young Voting, 2021: Best pitcher in history before injury, 2022: Excellent pitching in mid-season return from injury. Decline isn’t apparent but being brittle and often injured is undeniable.
3. Jeff McNeil has played outfield and played outfield well. That being said, an outfield of McNeil, Marte and Canha is a defensive step down from what we’ve had. It’s still the best way I have of stretching the $300 Mil budget for 2023 to replace almost 70% of the team’s departing pitching.
4. Baty is a top prospect and the Mets brought him up because he is very good. Top prospects are eventually given starting roles so that they can make good on their potential. Baty is major league ready and Escobar plays second base and plays it well.
5. Francisco Alvarez is not a defensive liability. He’s a downgrade from Nido and McCann who are plus defensive catchers. Alvarez should be the team’s starting catcher because he’s the best catcher in the organization.
Without spending a single free agent dollar, the Mets could have a starting lineup injected with three prospects.
1. Starling Marte, CF
2. Jeff McNeil, LF
3. Francisco Lindor, SS
4. Pete Alonso, 1B
5. Eduardo Escobar, 2B
6. Francisco Alvarez, C
7. Brett Baty, 3B
8. Mark Vientos, DH
9. Mark Canha, RF
This leaves the Mets with over $100 Mil to spend on the pitching staff that is set to lose deGrom, Bassit, Walker, Diaz, Lugo, May, Ottavino, Givens and Williams.
Mind you, Brandon Nimmo is the number one offensive player I’d consider for the 2023 roster but that is a lot of pitching to replace if you want to build a winner.
Im not opposed to what you have listed here, but I dont see a WS team in that. How many months do you give Vientos, Baty, and Alvarez to figure out the game, while Atlanta will have the gas on from day 1?
If you say look we need a couple years to let the rookies figure out being major leaguers and then bolster them when Soto and Ohtani come on the market Im fine with that. We can say the competition is 300M$, but trust me the Braves, Dodgers, Astros, Padres, Yankees etc are the actual competition we need to beat.
Im solely interested developing a team that will be genuine competitors for a WS win, like the Dodgers.
I expect the transitions for Baty and Alvarez to be fairly quick and while I expect Vientos’ to be slower I have faith in the bats of all three. Of this plan, my biggest concern is the defense of Baty which is a step down from Escobar’s at third base.
Also, having Baty, Vientos, Guillorme and Escobar with Mr. Alvarez means that 3B defense and DH have an assortment of options.
I also know people are down on Vogelbach but he’s only $1.5 Mil to bring back for another year. The guy did hit 17 home runs and have a healthy OPS. I mostly don’t think Vientos will ever fully flourish with a role as a DH in only 1/5th of games.
Next year’s team will look very different, especially the bullpen. My take:
-deGrom – let him walk which I can’t believe I’m saying. Given his injury history, TJ surgery in 2010, age 35 next year, uneven season, and salary expectations, use the money elsewhere, perhaps on Rodon for half the price and a C who is a MLB hitter;
-Diaz – take or leave but lean to re-sign (closers are a mercurial bunch who rarely excel long-term, but lean to re-signing due to his age and lack of free agent replacements);
-Bassit – re-sign as a reliable SP3;
-Walker – re-sign, also a reliable SP3/4;
-Carrasco – walk;
-Ottavino – walk (he’s inconsistent and 37 next season);
-Lugo – re-sign;
-Nimmo – re-sign if Mets can’t get Judge (which they probably won’t). I’d be sorry to see him go;
-Vogelbach – walk;
-May – walk;
-Givens – walk.
-At C, sign Contreras for 3-4 years and ease Alvarez in while rotating at C 25% and DH 75% of the time.
Budget, luxury taxes, and wise spending are Cohen’s concern. If he’s willing to spend what it takes for a championship, then fans should hope for the best team regardless of cost. Disappointing year from poor September play against weak teams and choking in the clutch against ATL. Pennant winners don’t limp across the finish line.
Here is a great site to use when looking at your offseason plans.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-mets/payroll/2023/
Carlos Carrasco has a Team Option at $14 Mil which is below the going rate for a pitcher of his caliber. The Mets should keep him.
Chris Bassit is going to make $20 Mil+ in free agency and cannot receive QO
Taijuan Walker will likely turn down the Mets QO and make $20 Mil+ in free agency
If you do not sign Jacob deGrom the pitching staff takes a huge hit and should probably sign the only other Ace on the market, Carlos Rodon. Part of the reason I am trying to save so much money on offense in my offseason planning is I’d actually like to retain deGrom and add Rodon. By the way, Rodon will not be half the price of deGrom. I predict deGrom to get very near $40 Mil per and Rodon to make around $36 Mil.
What is crazy to me is that fans are expecting Cohen to blow through $300 Mil like it’s nothing after suffering through Jeff and Fred Coupon for years and having the Mets run as a discount team.
I get that I spend my year watching the minors and that nobody seems to trust the minor league players will succeed. Mark Vientos may never translate to the majors but I predicted him needing transition time to do that (which he was not afforded). Brett Baty is going to be a good starting third baseman. Francisco Alvarez could become the best catcher in baseball if he’s given the chance.
The end of the season hurt and I understand the knee jerk reactions but all of this seems overblown for a team that won 101 games.
First off, thanks again to Brian and all at Mets360. It was a bitter end to the 2022 games, but the season never ends here, which is greatly appreciated.
While the Mets did provide some fun and excitement for most of he season, the late collapse (again) and embarrassing end rendered the season a failure. Post season ball is always a crapshoot, but losing the WC at home after squandering the division in September with a win now group equates to failure despite the win total.
The sting is worsened by the state of their top competition, the Braves. They are defending champs, ruined another Met season, and are stuacke with tremendous
young talent…locked up for quite some time. They are set and the Mets are in limbo, even with the wealthiest owner in the game. All this adds up to yet another winter of uncertainty and uneasiness as a Met fan. On the plus side, at least we are used to it.
Wonderful opinions all, but as we missed out on Soto, I don’t want to miss out on Ohtani as there is your ace pitcher and your best hitter. But, will Arte Moreno deal with Steve Cohen? Doubtful.
I propose signing only the best free agents (DeGrom, Diaz) add Rodon and wait for Ohtani and Soto to hit the market. Save bullets for the big game and don’t shoot at wild boars.
I like the thought of adding the kids but are the ace pitchers ready for Alvarez behind the plate? Can McNeil be the Mets version of Chris Taylor and play anywhere? I think so. If you add Baty, where does that leave a popular and productive player like Escobar? I believe this off season is more complicated than last year’s.